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茅台提价尘埃落定 高端白酒受提振
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Topic: 茅台提价尘埃落定 高端白酒受提振 (Read 32 times)
wall63248555
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茅台提价尘埃落定 高端白酒受提振
December 30, 2017, 09:43:53 AM
#1
茅台提价尘埃落定 高端白酒受提振
2017年的最后一个交易日,虽然盘中一度摸高至726.50元的历史新高,但今年当之无愧的“明星”贵州茅台到底还是收于697.49元,没能突破700元大关。即便前一日的“提价公告”拉动股价大涨8.21%,市值狂飙685亿元,当市场情绪冷却之后,贵州茅台似乎又重新步入稳扎稳打的增长节奏。
分析人士指出,市场对于出厂价的上涨早有预期,此举抬高了白酒产品的价格天花板,实为利好,将助力各白酒企业,尤其是专注次高端以上市场的白酒企业维持营收增速。
酒企狂欢
12月28日,贵州茅台一纸公告,宣布“更好地统筹兼顾各种因素,经研究决定,公司自2018年起适当上调茅台酒产品价格,平均上调幅度18%左右”。此次提价后,53度飞天茅台出厂价预计将从目前的819元提高至969元/瓶,这是自2012年9月出厂价从619元涨至819元后,五年来茅台第一次涨价。
同日,茅台2017年度全国经销商大会召开。一位出席会议的华南经销商透露,此次茅台提价符合经销商预期,经销商普遍理解并支持提价政策。茅台公司也在会上表示未来将把控好1499元的市场指导价,通过加强对经销商的日常监管、调节供应节奏等多方面手段调控价格。
受此消息影响,当天茅台大涨超过8%,当日个股主力、超大单分别净流入4.87亿元和9.11亿元。白酒板块也随之发生连锁反应,中证白酒指数当日大涨4.34%。沱牌舍得、水井坊、泸州老窖等涨幅均超过3%。Choice数据显示,截至12月29日,贵州茅台今年以来累计上涨111.89%,同一时间内,中证白酒指数也水涨船高累计上涨77.29%。
撬动白酒市场
分析人士指出,在当前供不应求的情况下,茅台此次涨价反倒使得公司未来对产品价格的管控起到了积极作用。中信建投分析师张芳指出,本轮提价后,公司仍将对市场价格进行一定的管控,价格快速上涨的风险得到抑制,有利于公司长期发展。同时,春节旺季即将到来,下游动销亦将得到保障。
太平洋证券分析师黄付生亦表示,根据对高端白酒市场的推演,茅台唯有合理提高出厂价才能解决量价困局。而此次稳步提价、提出厂价预期如期兑现,明年茅台在保证业绩高增长的同时,也能确保价格体系相对健康,高端酒中的五粮液、国窖直接受益、次高端价格空间被打开、涨价潮向中低端延伸,整体白酒板块高景气有望相对延长,继续支撑高估值和高股价。
对于白酒行业数年蛰伏之后的复苏,东北证券分析师李强认为,市场对高端白酒将继续保持饥渴状态,供需紧平衡状态将持续。据他测算,2020年之前市场对高端和次高端白酒的需求将保持15.5%的年化增长,而产能的限制则使高端白酒供给的年增速不高于12.5%。
招商证券食品饮料行业分析师杨勇胜在看好白酒行业的基础上,也呼吁全年理性地评价茅台及白酒行业,充分认识茅台在本轮行业复苏中所做的努力及成果。他指出,近期年度估值切换的部分空间有所兑现,但白酒行业复苏趋势不改,来年高速增长几近确定。展望来年,一季度的报表低基数、春节推迟及行业加速繁荣,板块将再度迎来涨势。
dudu131418
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Re: 茅台提价尘埃落定 高端白酒受提振
December 30, 2017, 09:48:17 AM
#2
年当之无愧的“明星”贵州茅台
hanley88
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Re: 茅台提价尘埃落定 高端白酒受提振
December 30, 2017, 02:04:53 PM
#3
春节推迟及行业加速繁荣,板块将再度迎来涨势
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