Just jumped into the bitcoin game... thoughts and questions

[Blackout]

I honestly don't even remember how I stumbled upon it but I did, and have been fascinated by the bitcoin concept and story so far.
It seems that the people who adopted very early could really do something with this, but now even very fast computers are only producing marginal amounts.

I am seeing it as a fun experiment, and started mining yesterday.  I have a pretty decent rig - Quad core i7 in an antex 1200 case with a ati 4850 x2.... but I could not get both of the cards running using the manual command line prompt phoenix.... and when I did get one gpu core running it was slow.  I finally found GUIMiner and it's pumping out about 142 Mhash from my 4850 x2 and then surprisingly, my laptop is beating my desktop.. I ave a msi gx 660 with a 5870m and that's pumping out about 150 mhash so I am getting
around 300mhash per second while still having the computers fairly usable.

Still.... it seems we have passed the bubble of opportunity for single mining so you have to join a pool and time verses hardware and electricity are not looking amazing.   I don't know if I would put money into actually buying bitcoins though seeing as how volatile they are.  Now when they were 60 cents each or less and the difficulty level was low is seemed very exciting, but now sitting at around $15 (give or take) with a massively increasing difficulty level is it really worth it to go out and buy these insane rigs?

The only advantage I can see in buying the rigs and mining is that at least you purchased some physical hardware and sure it depreciates the moment you bought it but you still have some useful equipment where as if you just buy some bitcoins as an investment you co0uld be screwed and have nada to show for it...  it seems quite difficult to get the damn things in and out of USD.....  you have to register on weird sites you don't know and hope they are trustworthy and then buy linden dollars and sell those and finally get out paypal to your paypal debt card? What a pain in the ##&^...

Still the idea intrigues me so I am playing with it just to see if I can mine 1 bitcoin in a few days since my computers are always on anyway (I'm an actor, writer director / editor... always working on stuff) and I am a massive freedom person... so knowing what I do about our current destroyed monetary system, I at least like this idea.

It seems to have some major flaws though and looks like at will reach the peak bubble very soon where it won't be profitable to mine because you'd have to spend a insane amount in graphics cards, electricity, fans, air conditioning.... ect to generate a fraction of  a coin where people were generating 30 on the same computer power just a year or so ago.

Thoughts?

- Blackout

[BitcoinPorn]

I think mining itself will be going through changes soon and I wouldn't jump into it yet, too  many miners, issues with how big pools are, I would sit and wait with mining.

[Agozyen]

4XXX series if GPU is very ineffiecient.  I had a 4870 X2 and switched to a regular 5770 and am getting more Mhash with that and using less power.   If you are going to stay in the bitcoin game consider selling the 4850's and getting a 5770 or something. 

[MajikPiG]

I think mining itself will be going through changes soon and I wouldn't jump into it yet, too  many miners, issues with how big pools are, I would sit and wait with mining.

Yeah, I don't think mining is really profitable now unless:
-You already own a pretty good rig so won't have to invest in equipment
-You have some other advantage that will reduce costs in order to maximize profits
-You can build an extremely efficient rig

And, unless you have some way of getting the parts for pretty cheap, I don't think it's much worth building a new rig right now. Perhaps after the next difficulty change it will be different, especially since many hobbyists (like myself) will probably drop out. But, hopefully someone may design a more efficient rig shortly after the next change but before the change after that.

On the other hand, I enjoy tinkering with my miners, so, while it's only earning a few cents a day, I'll be running my rigs for a while yet just as a bit of an experiment and an excuse to tweak.

[deepceleron]

The ship has pretty much sailed on mining, you can buy $500 worth of mining hardware and it might eventually get you 25 BTC, or even pay off the equipment. However, if you are speculating that the value of bitcoins will go up, you want the low priced bitcoins now, so why not just buy $500 worth of bitcoins?

[Snipa]

As someone who's using dual 5770's (A poor gamer at heart, and my machine reflects it!)  I've found that it's not really worth the hardware investment at the moment with the massive difficulty jump to run the machine and the cards.  That being said, I've found it worth while to let my machine chew away at mining while I'm /not/ gaming, and the machine is otherwise working, as I'm usually up coding or something, so it's certainly worth letting the cards churn away IMO.

[TYDIRocks]

Yeah man I just got my 6950, when I would get around 200 dollars last week, that price has cut in half

[Blackout]

Thanks for the replies guys.  I was hoping one of you was going to tell me some great secret and that I was all wrong but you're pretty much verifying what I was thinking.

I wouldn't invest in a new rig.  I have two machines here... one is a huge full tower in an antex 1200 case with plenty of fans and that's always on anyway. I do HD editing on it and stream a radio and tv station and the 4850 x2 was more than enough for that when I bought it over a year and a half ago. I realize how fast tech is outdated but my 3.2 i7 (overclicked from 2.7) has stayed pretty much great for a year and a half now you still can't get much better. If I wanted to really try a go at mining I would just take out the 4850 x2 (which is getting about 150 mhash) and throw in three 5830s or 5850s... that would not be a big investment and would prob bring me up to about a 1000mhash when not using my machine and probably massively speed up my video encoding too so it would actually be a useful investment.

Even my little laptop with a 5870m beats out the 4850 x2... it's getting 150mhash a sec.

I'm thinking along the lines some have you have said.  I have this huge tower machine on anyway, why not let the graphics cards mine when I'm asleep / not using it. If I make some bitcoins and they go up.. it was a fun experiment.. if the whole thing gets corrupted and falls apart... I haven't really lost anything as I have upgraded my computer equipment. I don't know enough or have enough trust / knowledge to put money into buying them yet.

 I have two more pci-e slots open.. weird thing is I have a evga x58 mobo which was meant for chaining nvidia cards but I always like ati video cards better and now it seems this proves they are better.  So if I ditch the 4850 x2.. I could at least get $100 to $125 bucks for it.. That gets me a 5830 or I throw a few more dollars and get a 5850... then I'd only be spending about $300 two by two more cards.. as I already have the tower, massive 1000 watt power supply, fans mobo.. ect...  I don't THINK I'll have a problem using crossfire with this x58 mobo but I may have to look inot that as it was made for invida cards but has been working fine with my 4850 x2.

Then I have a super video editing gaming HD audio mixing machine from hell that can also pump out some bitcoins ...
 
What's your thoughts on that?  I'm still trying to understand the difference between solo mining and pool mining and if the pools are trustworthy and the various mining software.  So far the  GUIMiner has worked better for me than the phoenix command line interface as that things keeps dropping / disconnecting.

I am currently mining on bitcoinpool.com it seemed the fairest of what I looked through and fees are optional not mandatory.... is there a index / reference of what is considered the safest / honest / most reliable pool?
How much time would I need solo mining if I was going at 1000mhash to get any return? Not sure how to solo mine yet still reading up on that.

So far from two nights of half assed stop and start mining and toying with different miners I have .2 bitcoins... wooopedy I'm rich!


 
I am getting a lot of discrepancies in efficiency from what is showing on my  GUIMiner and what is showing up on bitcoinpool... they are listing my efficiency at 50% when it was at 85%....  I show 28 dropped blocks out of 2000+.  They are saying :

Requested Shares:    4366
Submitted Shares:    2052

Why would one get this huge discrepancy? Is it from stopping and starting mining am I throwing out huge chunks of shares they sent?  I don't see big fail or rejected rates on my screens.

- Blackout

[Skrapps]

When I was looking at mining, it still seemed worth it if you were going to upgrade your rig anyways, for games mainly. I think my calculations showed a break even at 4-6 months, depending on difficulty.

Ultimately I didn't go for it; I might be moving soon and couldn't see myself committing that much time to setup and tweaking. Too I hate the heat, and to maintain my 68-70 degrees in my apartment would further increase the electric bill (I'm a wimp I know).

I'm not sure about those discrepancies, I think I remember some getting those as difficulty and mining increased. Is it possible that some of those blocks may have been solved, before you submitted?

[being]

it seems quite difficult to get the damn things in and out of USD.....  you have to register on weird sites you don't know and hope they are trustworthy and then buy linden dollars and sell those and finally get out paypal to your paypal debt card? What a pain in the ##&^...

You do not have to deal with linden dollars at all. If you live in the US, probably the smartest thing would be using mtgox and dwolla. Or you could use wire transfer. There's many easy options.
Not sure how you brought linden dollars into this. Buying/selling bitcoins has nothing to do with linden dollars.

[MoonShadow]

I think that if defficulty will not drop, the mining will die 

If mining dies, difficulty will drop.

[Melbustus]

I think that if defficulty will not drop, the mining will die 

If mining dies, difficulty will drop.

It's interesting how quickly the BTC economy has gotten to the point where mining is only barely profitable; that should, of course, theoretically happen, but it happened quite fast. So people will make money on the bleeding edge - folks who have slightly more efficient rigs (or access to free electricity), or can capitalize quickly on sudden increases in the BTC exchange rate, will make a little money for a bit. The ebb and flow of difficulty vs miners' dropping out, others getting more efficient, etc, should keep mining at near-zero profit for folks with average equipment. This is the nature of an efficient market. It's just surprising we got here so soon.

[MoonShadow]

I think that if defficulty will not drop, the mining will die 

If mining dies, difficulty will drop.

It's interesting how quickly the BTC economy has gotten to the point where mining is only barely profitable; that should, of course, theoretically happen, but it happened quite fast. So people will make money on the bleeding edge - folks who have slightly more efficient rigs (or access to free electricity), or can capitalize quickly on sudden increases in the BTC exchange rate, will make a little money for a bit. The ebb and flow of difficulty vs miners' dropping out, others getting more efficient, etc, should keep mining at near-zero profit for folks with average equipment. This is the nature of an efficient market. It's just surprising we got here so soon.

Don't forget about those who mine to heat their little flats in higher latitudes.  I seriously expect that Bitcoin mining will be concentrated in locales with either very inexpensive electricity (at least relative to the costs of other heating fuels) and locales where heating demand is high.  Thus, if you live in Hawaii, forget about it.  Denver in Winter, maybe.  Iceland?  It's bound to be a year round occupation.

[Blackout]

I'm in New York in a basement studio so yeah the machines do get a little hot but I pay a flat fee and don't have an electricity bill so that's a good thing (for now, my landlords 93!).  But I have a little portable air conditioner that keeps things fairly decent but I can see the summer sucking and the winter being decent.

I've been mining on bitcoinpool.com

It has been going up and down and I have been considering other options?  Can any of you direct me or advice as to how to gauge the different pools and their trustworthiness / lack there off... I need to at least have a backup pool because bitcoinpool.cm seems to be getting attacked and has been down a lot.

Also I have yet to find a fully understandable guide on solo mining.  If I want to solo mine and I'm pumping out 1000mh /sec how long before I get some coin and how does it work?  Is there a definitive guide somewhere?
Do you need to be pumping out some insane 4000mh to even bother?



I just bit the bullet and ordered a 5830 for $130 you can't go wrong it gets 300mhash a sec.... with my other cards that will bring me up t about 750mhash.  I'll toy with it and see if I am going to invest more or not.

All guidance and comments and pointers are deeply appreciated.

- Blackout

[Blackout]

Just ordered two 5830s....  now... should I replace my 4850 x2... or add the 5830s as miners and leave the 4850 x2 as my main editng / gaming / compression card. In reading up... the 4850 x2 is a better gaming card even though older...   would crossfired 5830s beat it?