Valuations of Mining Shares on Bitfunder

[lubah]

Tried to do some apples to apples comparison of securities listed on bitfunder - mostly looked at the mining companies or soon to be mining companies -  feel free to check my math or point out where I may have mis-calculated - as well as some provide feedback / insight relating to determining reasonable valuations.   

I realize the dividend payments will play a huge role eventually at determining fair market value but this is all we have so far:

Addiction
Assets = 12 KNC Jupiters = 4.2 TH/s @7K/ea $84K for 4.2 TH/s hashing power in September/October
total shares = 148800 or 28.2 MH/s per share
outstanding = 137500
recent price = 0.0106
market cap = 1457.50 BTC ~ USD $145,750
price per GH = .38 BTC

Active Mining
Assets = 6 avalon @ 430GH/s + steamboat @ 307GH/s + chips 5.64 TH/s = 6.37 TH/s potential by August + chips in development
total shares = 25,000,000 or 254 MH/s min per share 
outstanding = 6,671,136
recent price = 0.00521500
market cap = 34,790 BTC ~ USD $3.79M
how to value chips in dev??  -

LabRat Mining
Assets = unclear what hardware they own / have on order but traditional bonds = debt
total shares = 1,000,000 or 100 MH/s per bond could grow to 200MH/s per bond
outstanding = 100,000
recent price = 0.16
market cap = 16000 BTC ~ USD $1600000 what could/did they buy with $1.6M USD to produce 100TH/s of hasing power?
price per GH = 1.6 BTC

Soniq Coinsortium I
Assets = 15 KNC Jupiters = 6TH/s by first day of delivery - Sept/Oct?
total shares = 45000 or 130 MH/s per share
outstanding = 26350
recent price = 0.05
public market cap = 1317.5 BTC ~ USD $131,750
price per GH = .38 BTC

Soniq Coinsortium II
Assets = 6 KNC Jupiters = 2.4TH/s by second day of delivery - Sept/Oct?
total shares = 18000 or 130 MH/s per share
outstanding = 10000
recent price = 0.04
public market cap = 400 BTC ~ USD $40K
price per GH = .30 BTC

Nasty Fans
Assets = 300GH/s + 5GH/s (maybe) / currently mining + 800GH/s on order with BFL = 1.105 TH/s
total shares = 100,000  = 11 MH/s per share
outstanding = 10000
price = 0.00505051 
public market cap = 50.51 BTC ~ USD $5050
price per GH = .45BTC

[1715649603]

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[kuriboh]

very useful information, I have some share from addiction and lab rat, and I wanted to do some numbers like this but i have not time. So this info its very convenient.

Thanks!

[adamthefishman]

Good work. Thanks

[pheaonix]

looks like

https://bitfunder.com/asset/ActiveMining

is a good buy

[toddtervy]

looks like

https://bitfunder.com/asset/ActiveMining

is a good buy

Translation:   I have ActiveMining shares, buy this so I can sell higher.

[perlboy]

Might want to evaluate power costs of each asset too purely because KNC vs. Avalon is probably going to have a quickly diverting cost/profit base beyond a 3-6 month time horizon.

[pheaonix]

looks like

https://bitfunder.com/asset/ActiveMining

is a good buy

Translation:   I have ActiveMining shares, buy this so I can sell higher.

naw i am in for the long term. honestly i want more people to enjoy a good return like i have life is good

[lubah]

Might want to evaluate power costs of each asset too purely because KNC vs. Avalon is probably going to have a quickly diverting cost/profit base beyond a 3-6 month time horizon.

Thanks perl.   Not a bad idea.   If we see dividends getting eaten up by hosting, electrical, or even 'management' fees we'll definitely need to consider their effect on valuation.

[lubah]

looks like

https://bitfunder.com/asset/ActiveMining

is a good buy

Translation:   I have ActiveMining shares, buy this so I can sell higher.

Even if he does, so what?  The goal of the thread is to determine what a reasonable valuation should be.   From the data,  Soniq's consortium II looks to be cheapest at the moment as compared to its peers.

But, Addiction and SNQ.CoinI do seem cheap, as well.    I for one would certainly expect to see a fairly quick ROI with any of these - assuming they start paying dividends in Sept/Oct.    These three seem like 'no brainers'

People are paying 1BTC+ for a block erupter ...  You'd need 3 to get 1Gh/s ---  3 Btc vs .38 btc per GH/s?

I'd venture to say, nearly all of these are CHEAP.

[bbxx]

looks like

https://bitfunder.com/asset/ActiveMining

is a good buy

Translation:   I have ActiveMining shares, buy this so I can sell higher.

Even if he does, so what?  The goal of the thread is to determine what a reasonable valuation should be.   From the data,  Soniq's consortium II looks to be cheapest at the moment as compared to its peers.

But, Addiction and SNQ.CoinI do seem cheap, as well.    I for one would certainly expect to see a fairly quick ROI with any of these - assuming they start paying dividends in Sept/Oct.    These three seem like 'no brainers'

People are paying 1BTC+ for a block erupter ...  You'd need 3 to get 1Gh/s ---  3 Btc vs .38 btc per GH/s?

I'd venture to say, nearly all of these are CHEAP.

if knc will not deliver in time, bfl will hold orders...

shares with knc, bfl preorders are risky, they are virtual.
erupters are real.

[lubah]

if knc will not deliver in time, bfl will hold orders...

shares with knc, bfl preorders are risky, they are virtual.
erupters are real.

The old bird in the hand argument..   Fair enough, time will tell...   Those with the guts to take the risk now at such low valuations will be laughing all the way to the bank in a month or two, should delivery occur.

Works for me.

[EskimoBob]

How do you evaluate a company if you have no financial statements?
All you have is a "list" of equipment, if that. You have no idea what the expenses etc. are. What about the shareholders equity they started off? How was it spent? What is left of it? What did they pay for the equipment, power and so on on and on.
If you look at this http://sdrv.ms/16njy51 (from: http://www.reddit.com/user/sdmented) most of the mining Co's never make back the money invested.
Looks like those "first generation" ASIC's will be obsolete by the end of this year.

[lubah]

How do you evaluate a company if you have no financial statements?
All you have is a "list" of equipment, if that. You have no idea what the expenses etc. are. What about the shareholders equity they started off? How was it spent? What is left of it? What did they pay for the equipment, power and so on on and on.
If you look at this http://sdrv.ms/16njy51 (from: http://www.reddit.com/user/sdmented) most of the mining Co's never make back the money invested.
Looks like those "first generation" ASIC's will be obsolete by the end of this year.

Exactly the point of the thread...   all we have is what is listed on bitfunder.   given the list of assets - we can surmise based on predicted hashing power and difficulty what the income will be - as your spreadsheet so nicely lays out.  

From the bitfunder descriptions of the few 'companies' I've listed, seems like all income minus expenses will be distributed as dividend - which as you point out, without financial statement is anybody's guess...

Nobody's going to make a killing on these first gen asic miners but they will likely make some sort of return -  so if even if it yields only 1 BTC per share by year's end, how much would you pay now for that potential?

[EskimoBob]

How do you evaluate a company if you have no financial statements?
All you have is a "list" of equipment, if that. You have no idea what the expenses etc. are. What about the shareholders equity they started off? How was it spent? What is left of it? What did they pay for the equipment, power and so on on and on.
If you look at this http://sdrv.ms/16njy51 (from: http://www.reddit.com/user/sdmented) most of the mining Co's never make back the money invested.
Looks like those "first generation" ASIC's will be obsolete by the end of this year.

Exactly the point of the thread...   all we have is what is listed on bitfunder.   given the list of assets - we can surmise based on predicted hashing power and difficulty what the income will be - as your spreadsheet so nicely lays out.  

From the bitfunder descriptions of the few 'companies' I've listed, seems like all income minus expenses will be distributed as dividend - which as you point out, without financial statement is anybody's guess...

Nobody's going to make a killing on these first gen asic miners but they will likely make some sort of return -  so if even if it yields only 1 BTC per share by year's end, how much would you pay now for that potential?

Lubah, I see no potential in mining bond if they are structured they way they are now.
Here is why: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241101.msg2555945#msg2555945 

If we are talking about Co manufacturing/selling the chips/rigs, this is different story. But still, valuating a Co from coffee grounds at bottom of the cup is waste of time.

I hope that more people start to understand this and put pressure on the issuers and exchanges.

Cheers and enjoy the guessing game.

[lubah]

Lubah, I see no potential in mining bond if they are structured they way they are now.
Here is why: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241101.msg2555945#msg2555945  

If we are talking about Co manufacturing/selling the chips/rigs, this is different story. But still, valuating a Co from coffee grounds at bottom of the cup is waste of time.

I hope that more people start to understand this and put pressure on the issuers and exchanges.

Cheers and enjoy the guessing game.

Agree with respect to the bond type issues like labrat...  

Addiction and Soniq's two seem more like actual partnerships where each share holder actually has ownership of the underlying assets listed/purchased  - From what I can tell, these are a result of groupbuys that turned their shares/ownership into public shares for ease of dividend disbursement and the added liquidity a public marketplace like bitfunder offers to those who want to cash out.  

Soniq.Coinsortium I & II in particular state that once mining is no longer 'profitable',  either sell the units and dole out the proceeds (shareholder's equity) as further dividends and then dissolve the company or potentially reinvest a portion of the shareholders dividends into gen 2, 3, 4 ASIC hardware and stay current worthy of maintaining ongoing dividend payments .

These make a little more sense to me as far as an investment vs just making a loan / buying a bond.

appreciate your contribution.

[lubah]

Finally,  something that is hashing (albeit barely) and paying dividends:

Fenix
Assets = 2 Avalon Asic Miners - currently hashing at 140 GH/s
total shares = 24000 or 5.8 MH/s per share
outstanding = 22950
recent price = 0.025
market cap = 575 BTC ~ USD $58,000
price per GH = 4.31 BTC

this thing is actually paid its first dividends of  ฿0.00060255 /share - assuming they stick to their 70% payout of income as dividend twice a week of the same amount - which likely will decrease as time goes on with ever increasing difficuly (46M next week) - but assume it remains constant, it'll take 42 payments or 21 weeks to see a return on investment.

PE ratio  = 0.34  
Dividend Yield = 2.5%

so people are willing to pay ฿4.31 for the equivalent 1 GH/s of hashing power for a best case 2.5% dividend yield

man if we apply the same math to the securities above when they start paying dividends with 4+ TH/s of hashing power vs 0.14 TH/s of Fenix, there should be some very happy shareholders in a couple months.

[hasher87]

Finally,  something that is hashing (albeit barely) and paying dividends:

Fenix
Assets = 2 Avalon Asic Miners - currently hashing at 140 GH/s
total shares = 24000 or 5.8 MH/s per share
outstanding = 22950
recent price = 0.025
market cap = 575 BTC ~ USD $58,000
price per GH = 4.31 BTC

this thing is actually paid its first dividends of  ฿0.00060255 /share - assuming they stick to their 70% payout of income as dividend twice a week of the same amount - which likely will decrease as time goes on with ever increasing difficuly (46M next week) - but assume it remains constant, it'll take 42 payments or 21 weeks to see a return on investment.

PE ratio  = 0.34  
Dividend Yield = 2.5%

so people are willing to pay ฿4.31 for the equivalent 1 GH/s of hashing power for a best case 2.5% dividend yield

man if we apply the same math to the securities above when they start paying dividends with 4+ TH/s of hashing power vs 0.14 TH/s of Fenix, there should be some very happy shareholders in a couple months.

We'll just have to wait until addiction/soniq receive their machine, starts hashing and giving out dividends, then we'll know from there 

[EskimoBob]

Any chance you can get the
1) Shareholders equity
2) Complete list of assets with cost (in USD and BTC)
3) How amortization (depreciation) is calculated
4) Monthly expenses

Then we can start compiling a real picture or something close to it.

Question is, how are you going to convince those guys to actually publish any meaningful numbers.
Maybe you can compile a list with simple questions?
Maybe team up with Smidge, he got a cool little index project going (see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=267351.0;topicseen). 

[lubah]

Any chance you can get the
1) Shareholders equity
2) Complete list of assets with cost (in USD and BTC)
3) How amortization (depreciation) is calculated
4) Monthly expenses

Then we can start compiling a real picture or something close to it.

Question is, how are you going to convince those guys to actually publish any meaningful numbers.
Maybe you can compile a list with simple questions?
Maybe team up with Smidge, he got a cool little index project going (see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=267351.0;topicseen). 

I hear you... obviously no SEC involved here,  no 3rd party auditors,  no fiduciary responsibility to shareholders even, so all we really have is how the organizer choose to describe their entity, what they choose to list as assets, we can speculate what the stated hashing power should earn by mining, and we'll know what they payout in the form of dividends - so can roughly determine how much the house keeps and/or pays in expenses each month.  P/E, dividend yield, and other stats can certainly be calculated...

Keep the ideas coming.

[Smidge]

Interesting. Looks like LabRat should be included in DCX, as soon as I get the Bitfunder API figured out.

@EskimoBob Thx for the reference

[maqifrnswa]

Nasty Fans
Assets = 300GH/s + 5GH/s (maybe) / currently mining + 800GH/s on order with BFL = 1.105 TH/s
total shares = 100,000  = 11 MH/s per share
outstanding = 10000
price = 0.00505051  
public market cap = 50.51 BTC ~ USD $5050
price per GH = .45BTC

I appreciate what you did to put this all together! I know you are completely guessing, and these PMBs are crazy bad investments by all "normal" investment logic - so this effort is worthwhile when you consider how someone basis-less the investments are.

Your Nasty math is a bit off though.

The 1.105 TH/s you describe is actually split amongst 19732 seats.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=86854.0
1000 of those seats are sold as a pass-through on bitfunder:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/NastyFans
at a rate of 100 shares per seat.

So there are two prices per seat, the pass-through is ~.5 BTC/seat and through nastyfans.org at ~.35 BTC/seat

The calculation is thus:
total bitfunder shares = 100,000  = 0.53 MH/s per share (1.05TH/s /19732/100)
outstanding = 10000
price = 0.00505051  
public market cap = 50.51 BTC ~ USD $5050
price per GH = 9.5BTC

total nastyfans.org seats = 19732 = 53 MH/s per seat
oustanding = 19732
price = 0.35
market cap = ~8k BTC = $800,000
price per GH = 6.5

also, NastyFans is out of IPO (and has been for a while). Price is set entirely by the market. They are also one of the few (only?) mining securities that is actually mining.

[Progressive]

For comparison: PMBs at BTC-TC:

Today's update.
DMS.MINING is cheaper than running the ASICMINER USB...

[lubah]

I appreciate what you did to put this all together! I know you are completely guessing, and these PMBs are crazy bad investments by all "normal" investment logic - so this effort is worthwhile when you consider how someone basis-less the investments are.

Your Nasty math is a bit off though.

The 1.105 TH/s you describe is actually split amongst 19732 seats.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=86854.0
1000 of those seats are sold as a pass-through on bitfunder:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/NastyFans
at a rate of 100 shares per seat.

So there are two prices per seat, the pass-through is ~.5 BTC/seat and through nastyfans.org at ~.35 BTC/seat

The calculation is thus:
total bitfunder shares = 100,000  = 0.53 MH/s per share (1.05TH/s /19732/100)
outstanding = 10000
price = 0.00505051  
public market cap = 50.51 BTC ~ USD $5050
price per GH = 9.5BTC

total nastyfans.org seats = 19732 = 53 MH/s per seat
oustanding = 19732
price = 0.35
market cap = ~8k BTC = $800,000
price per GH = 6.5

also, NastyFans is out of IPO (and has been for a while). Price is set entirely by the market. They are also one of the few (only?) mining securities that is actually mining.

Great stuff -- appreciate the clarification as I was WAY off!   BIG difference as you point out...

Thanks for keeping me honest.

[lubah]

Looks like some action over in SNQ.CoinI today -- somebody(s) dumped out of a descent size chunk ...   
The fun thing about trading these issues is one or two trades can have a big impact on price -

I don't understand the low price, though... from the math - looks like this one is available on the cheap assuming KNC delivers Day1 -
the Jupiters that make up this GB / security will be hosted at KNC and should be mining fairly quickly - so one could expect dividends on day 2...

per the earnings calculators I've seen...  even assuming difficulty skyrockets to 100M by October @ a minimum of 4TH/s hashing power the Jupiters should still spit out 20+ BTC/day

with 45000 shares outstanding that's .00044444 /share dividend per day - if it only costs 0.04/share that's a break even in < 90 days and gravy there after...  reasonable, right?

as compared to the other companies that are currently mining - the discount here is staggering.   

[creativex]

with 45000 shares outstanding that's .00044444 /share dividend per day - if it only costs 0.04/share that's a break even in < 90 days and gravy there after...  reasonable, right?

I doubt difficulty will stop increasing to ensure that you get gravy.

[kuriboh]

can anyone add an analysis about this to the list please?

IceDrill.ASIC

[fran2k]

I would like to see this analysis updated.