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伊朗骚乱:蝴蝶的翅膀
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Topic: 伊朗骚乱:蝴蝶的翅膀 (Read 26 times)
mudsadji
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伊朗骚乱:蝴蝶的翅膀
January 03, 2018, 06:39:23 AM
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自2017年12月28日起,伊朗爆发了蔓延全国的社会骚乱,截至2018年1月2日官方统计,已造成至少21人死亡,仅在首都德黑兰就有至少450人被先后逮捕。
此次骚乱的肇源地,是伊朗第二大城市马什哈德,最初的抗议诉求是谴责政府紧缩政策所导致的物价及生活费用尤其是燃料价格上涨,但抗议迅速蔓延至全国,并出现了各种政治化口号:上月29日,北部城市库姆有人喊出“独裁者死去”和“释放政治犯”等口号,据称更有人要“支持巴列维王朝复辟”。
尽管一些分析家将此次事件称作“革命”、“起义”(支持示威者的说法)或“国外敌对分子”、“反革命分子”所制造的“阴谋”(反对示威者的说法),但更多熟知伊朗内情的分析家,如法国国际战略研究所(IR IS)研究员科维尔、伊朗-欧洲商务论坛专家巴特曼戈赫里吉,以及前法国驻伊朗大使尼古洛认为,其根源是内在的、经济和社会性的。
科维尔指出,此次示威最初、最普遍和最核心的内容,是宣泄了伊朗底层民众对经济、社会的不满情绪。
首先是失业。官方失业数据是12%,但即便许多官方人士私下里也承认高达16%-18%,年轻毕业生毕业即失业,每年70万新毕业生找不到工作。“这令年轻人产生对前途的绝望感,并由此滋生对制度不公正的厌倦感,觉得现行体制让政治、经济资源和机遇集中在少数阶层的少数人手中。”
其次是对伊朗问题核协议签署以来伊朗经济和个人生活状况的改善程度不满,产生了“粉转黑”效应。正如许多分析家所言,伊朗核协议的达成导致部分制裁解除,一些伊朗人寄希望于核协议能一劳永逸地解决伊朗的社会、经济困境,当发现情况远非如此后希望变成了失望,并在遇到“应激”后迅速而猛烈地宣泄出来。
第三则是对总统鲁哈尼的寄托幻灭。在2009年内贾德连选连任并引发大规模抗议后,伊朗政坛的改革派在体制内凋零殆尽,原本是温和保守派的鲁哈尼在残存改革派“弃保战略”推动下于2013年爆冷上台,并迅速作出改革姿态,不仅一手推动伊朗核问题解决,而且多次特别承诺保护言论、集会自由,引来国内外一些好感和支持。但由于种种原因,核协议未能带来其所预期的繁荣和开放,这让原本狂热支持鲁哈尼改革路线的伊朗年轻人反倒成为此次示威的主力。
雪上加霜的是,鲁哈尼上任以来为解决预算和制裁带来的一系列困境,采取了持续的紧缩措施,这导致社会支出减少,油价飙升,物价飞涨,令底层民众滋生不满情绪,许多人在忍受长期经济制裁后已经对紧缩政策缺乏耐心。
此次伊朗“蝴蝶的翅膀”,究竟能掀起几许波澜?
正如一些伊朗问题专家所指出的,此次事件的政治意义被一些方面夸大了,“这是一起没有明确领导人,没有明确目标,只是因为社会上不满和失望情绪郁积而迅速蔓延的风潮,事实上各地宣泄的情绪和诉求彼此间大相径庭”,仅仅关注或特别“标粗”某些零星诉求、口号并无特别意义。自伊斯兰革命以来,伊朗大规模群体事件至少已爆发过三四次,此次差不多是规模最小、深度最浅、诉求最混乱。即便伤亡数也并不像某些人所强调的那般突出:2009年反对内贾德连任的示威,官方宣称有36人死亡,非正式统计的死亡人数则多达72人。
但这并不意味着可以忽视这次社会事件的影响。正如伊朗政治学家穆萨维等所指出的,伊朗当局可能更善于对付政治目标明确的示威,而对这种因为经济原因引伸出政治诉求的示威反倒感到棘手,因为后者不如前者容易界定和控制。
事实上鲁哈尼态度在24小时内的变化也折射出问题的复杂性和行政当局的尴尬:上月31日晚他发表了态度温和的讲话,呼吁民众“保持冷静”。但只隔1天,他就明显强化了口气,宣称伊朗人民将严厉应对“麻烦制造者”和“不法分子”———这个口径已和受“神权”控制的伊朗情报部门十分接近。
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