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全国光伏发电首超千亿千瓦时,专家:最终将迎来平价上网
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全国光伏发电首超千亿千瓦时,专家:最终将迎来平价上网
January 03, 2018, 06:39:41 AM
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1月2日,国家能源局对外公布统计数据显示,2017年1月至11月,我国光伏发电量达1069亿千瓦时,同比增长72%,光伏发电量占全部发电量的比重同比增加0.7个百分点,光伏年发电量首超1000亿千瓦时。其中,集中式光伏发电量达932亿千瓦时,分布式光伏发电量达137亿千瓦时。专家表示,2017年我国光伏装机量大幅超预期,同时弃光率有所下降,双重因素利好下光伏发电量取得了历史新高。
数据显示,截至2017年11月底,我国光伏累计装机容量达12579万千瓦,同比增长67%,累计装机容量占总电力装机的比重达7.5%,同比增加2.7个百分点。值得注意的是,分布式光伏发展全面提速,2017年1月至11月,分布式光伏新增装机1723万千瓦,为2016年同期新增规模的3.7倍,增速同比增加3倍。
东方日升全球市场总监庄英宏表示,正是看到分布式光伏领域惊人的增长潜力,公司设立了专门的分布式光伏部门,包括分布式光伏系统平台设计团队、工程施工团队、运营维护团队、光伏产品公司等专业部门和机构。
“光伏新增装机分布地域转移特征也很明显。”国家能源局新能源司有关负责人表示,2017年1月至11月,西北地区光伏新增装机占比同比下降17个百分点,中东部成为我国光伏发电热点地区,华东地区和华中地区新增装机分别为1325万千瓦和993万千瓦,同比分别增加9个和6个百分点。
与此同时,促进光伏产业成长的新动能也在形成。“光伏领跑者”计划的实施取得良好效果,光伏产业技术进步明显,成本实现大幅下降,并带动全球光伏项目招标电价不断下降。
“我们始终相信技术和商业模式的持续创新是行业发展的动力。”晋能科技总经理杨立友说,晋能科技始终坚持技术的迭代滚动发展,2017年,公司实现了符合新领跑者标准组件的量产,突破了超高效异质结电池、组件的量产技术障碍。
国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布的《能源生产和消费革命战略(2016—2030)》提出,到2030年,非化石能源发电占总发电量的50%,到2050年要占总电量的70%至80%,比起当前水平仍有很大提升空间。2017年,中国光伏新增装机虽创历史新高,但是前三季度光伏占总发电量比例不到2%,产业发展仍有较大空间。
对于2018年的光伏市场发展走向,庄英宏认为,2018年的光伏市场,各种高效产品将全面开花。随着分布式的爆发,光伏开发中心将逐步向中东部转移。随着补贴的下调,光伏行业发展将趋于稳定,最终迎来平价上网。
不出意外,光伏扶贫、“领跑者”和分布式仍是2018年光伏市场的关键词。根据国家发改委最新公布的光伏发电项目价格政策,除村级光伏扶贫电站外,光伏电站、分布式项目的补贴将全面下调,而在山西、山东等省发布的“十三五”光伏扶贫计划编制工作通知中,均把2018年指标全部用于集中式光伏扶贫电站。
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