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借钱玩债酿灾 金融成富人游戏工具
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Topic: 借钱玩债酿灾 金融成富人游戏工具 (Read 104 times)
ckkbiter
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借钱玩债酿灾 金融成富人游戏工具
January 04, 2018, 04:39:47 AM
#1
全球是否迎来下一波的金融海啸,一直是各界讨论的话题。对于英国《金融时报》与《纽约时报》报导标题谈到的“人类的好运也许到头了”、“你准备好迎接世界末日了吗?”等分析,中华经济研究院特约研究员吴惠林直接点出,金融灾害与困顿,是人类道德沦丧后产生的恶果。至于该如何因应?吴惠林呼吁,“人心回升,找回伦理道德,走向传统路”才是正确坦途。
谈到世界末日,总会让人联想到圣经预言与东方神话天谴,这与经济与末日有何关联?吴惠林表示,近期全球天灾,包含飓风、森林大火、大地震接二连三;而国际人祸,朝鲜、连续杀人狂、AI之祸频仍,关键在于“人性腐化、人定胜天的狂妄,不信神而导致的道德败坏”。
简而言之,金融早已变成五鬼搬运,钱往权贵口袋流,造成贫富差距与低薪的游戏工具,天灾人祸即是人失去道德后的反馈。
他解释,“人因不理性与名利权驱使下,让金融灾难周而复始,政府透过不断QE(量化宽松,英语:quantitative easing,简称QE,是一种非常规的货币政策)印钞救房市、股市,让大公司更加热衷于借钱玩债的杠杆游戏”,2008年次贷风暴记忆犹新,十年一循环,此时此刻,正是“风雨前的宁静”。
没人能料准金融海啸何时会发生。美国联准会(Fed)主席葛林斯潘去年7月曾发出预警停滞性膨胀将重现,全球经济复苏下隐藏“中国房市”、“美国债市”与“日本国债”三大泡沫危机,这些背后全是债务关系与过度举债问题。
不过,吴惠林说:“金融海啸说不定就是2018年。”
下一波金融海啸 再现70年代“停滞性膨胀”
近期股市火热,人们开始买股票并幻想股价可能持续上涨,而陶然忘我,实际上,许多迹象显示现在已到股票牛市末波,“不会刚好是我”是多数投资者的心态。
吴惠林引用2017年诺贝尔经济学奖得主塞勒(R.H. Thaler)在2015年电影《大卖空》(The big Short)中提及的“热手谬误”(The Hot Hand Fallacy)来解释这种“不理性”现象。
塞勒以篮球员连续投篮命中为例,球迷预期下一球肯定会再进球,“大众心理受情绪影响,认为好运会连庄、股市会再涨”,然后,下一秒就崩了。回望历史1997年亚洲金融风暴、2008年次贷风暴,吴惠林认为,下一次就是2018年。
谁是下一只黑天鹅?
Fed前主席葛林斯潘预测2018年金融危机导火线为“债券”,葛林斯潘说:“我们正经历一场泡沫膨胀,但不在股票价格、而在债券价格,当债市泡沫破裂、长期利率窜升,就会出现真正的问题。”
吴惠林补充说:“当利率急升、债券价格狂掉,债券卖不出去,证券市场垮掉、股市跟着崩溃,惨况将更胜2008年次贷风暴。”大家认为景气已复苏,经济泡沫的乌云已散去,但泡沫危机只是被政府QE掩盖,如今能量已累积非常巨大,现在是“大债时代”。
即将在台上市新书《毁灭之路》的金融专家詹姆斯.鲁卡斯解释,1997、2008年两次金融危机“只是前震”,意指过去能量未完整释放,因为政府总是伸手干预,所以累积越来越多,到某一程度就爆发,“2018年主震”情况势必比前两次震荡还严重。
找回伦理道德 减少投机心理
吴惠林再次呼吁,“人心回升,找回伦理道德,走向传统路”才是正确坦途,并表示可让“明斯基时刻”延缓、返还货币和金融业本质、找回理性的人。
所谓“明斯基时刻”,意指长期的经济繁荣中,资产价格上涨,导致投机贷款增加,而过多投机债务,将造成投资者的现金流吃紧,当被要求偿还债务时,就必须卖掉投资物,连锁的抛售将导致价格下跌,最终造成资产价格的崩溃。
短期来说让“明斯基时刻”延缓,各国政府QE退场持续有序进行,政府也别再用“纾困政策”干预市场,如管制价格,才能逐步解决问题。
他直指,鼓励纾困金融黑洞才会越来越大。政府应该放手让市场机能有效运作,当股市、房市下跌,真正需要的人才正好买得起,别让制度惩罚好人、鼓励坏人。
当金融海啸来时,停滞性通膨,大家过简朴生活,有储蓄者,房价下跌时可逐渐进场购屋,民间发挥人饥己饥短期救济,养精蓄锐度难关再奋起。对此,鲁卡斯也提出建议:1/3现套、1/3赔掉、1/3实质东西。
吴惠林强调,“坚守货币只是交易媒介”,勿把货币当商品、勿滥发货币,以消弭金融炒作泡沫,让低薪、五鬼搬运大掠夺致极端贫富悬殊消失;至于金融业则回归扮演“资金的桥梁、金融中介”单纯角色。
吴惠林说,有道德支撑,人心就不易被腐化,亚当史密斯《道德情操论》中说,资本主义要有道德诚信当基础,最后假设上述都无法实现,那也可参考“北欧模式”高服务、小政府、以爱为基础全面互助的社会型态。
信不信?见仁见智
历史往复,不断有人警告,但当前主流仍是华尔街那套思维当道。吴惠林自嘲,“恐怕政府与很多人都听不下去”,不受主流、政府青睐的原因很简单,那些享受金融搬运、五鬼搬运甜头的人不会舍得,道德情操值几斤钱?他叹口气说:“难呀!”
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Re: 借钱玩债酿灾 金融成富人游戏工具
January 04, 2018, 07:22:20 AM
#2
金融早已变成五鬼搬运,钱往权贵口袋流,造成贫富差距与低薪的游戏工具,简明扼要。
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Re: 借钱玩债酿灾 金融成富人游戏工具
January 04, 2018, 07:27:49 AM
#3
金融这东西本来就是有钱人和财团的玩具,散户跟进去不过是垫底的,他们开始注了血,现在准备大口的吸回来而已,只是时间暂没确定,股灾迟早会出现的。
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Re: 借钱玩债酿灾 金融成富人游戏工具
January 04, 2018, 08:03:30 AM
#4
难道还有人认为股灾是天灾,很明显是人祸啊,人家收割来着,瘦了你们,肥了他们,就这么简单,所以投资的时机很重要,看股灾来临谁跑的快。
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Re: 借钱玩债酿灾 金融成富人游戏工具
January 04, 2018, 08:21:41 AM
#5
投机一直都在,只不过是有些投机没人知道,有的都知道!
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