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生猪养殖头均盈利200元 2018年整体价格仍将走低
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Topic: 生猪养殖头均盈利200元 2018年整体价格仍将走低 (Read 60 times)
linlin69708
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生猪养殖头均盈利200元 2018年整体价格仍将走低
January 04, 2018, 12:32:26 PM
#1
日前,农业部官方网站发布了2017年最新国内猪产品价格走势,从数据来看,仔猪销售、猪肉价格皆有不同程度的下滑,其中,仔猪价格下滑明显。
在2017年1月份,仔猪销售价格是每20公斤39.09元,而至2017年12月,价格则变动为27.87元。按此计算,下滑幅度达到约30%,而猪肉价格的下滑幅度,则要低于仔猪价格的下滑。
“仔猪价格走势除了要根据生猪价格走势,还要看天气的因素、养殖户补栏的心态。本身冬季也是补栏的淡季,补栏积极性肯定要低于前几个月的水平,但是去年由于生猪价格相对较高,所以。仔猪价格也跟随着高,这个也就是说为什么仔猪,今年同期降幅要大于其他指标的原因。”卓创资讯分析师姬光欣在接受《证券日报》记者采访时解释。
今年价格仍将保持低位
姬光欣对记者介绍,从观察来看,生猪养殖市场在2018年仍将整体低于同期水平,“由于规模化养殖场的扩张,以集团化养殖的扩大生猪供应会逐渐增大,但是,由于消费面仍旧处于相对较低的水平,所以市场呈现供大于求的局面,价格将低于同期水平。对于2018年养殖企业来说,规模化养殖场和集团化养殖仍旧有利润。但是,小养殖户以及二次育肥户可能就不会这么乐观了。会出现亏损的情况,这也是市场自然淘汰的规律。现在一头猪的盈利水平大约在200元左右,规模养殖场的应该还要高于这个水平,所以说利润还是相对可以的。 ”
另外,新发地的最新研报也认为,毛猪供应的态势仍然处于供应略大于需求的状态,肉价走势仍然处于下行通道之中,因此,建议养殖企业坚持顺时出栏。
综合各方的观点可知,未来的生猪市场行情整体呈现下行态势。
一方面,规模养殖场仍在不断的扩张,生猪养殖市场的集中度将逐步提升,“2017年出栏10000头以上的大型猪场同比增长5.0%,而出栏在500-10000头的中小型猪场由于资金回笼和治理污染等压力的作用下,增速较慢,相比较抗风险能力较差的养殖户则会在治理污染的作用下陆续退出,占比减少6.0%。2018年至2022年,集团化养殖共计及超大型猪场依旧在扩建中,并且未来养殖集中度进一步提升,届时到2022年年出栏10000头以上猪场占比将达到31.0%,而年出栏500-10000头猪场增速将逐渐放缓,小型及散养户占比较2017年缩小21.0%。”姬光欣介绍。
另一方面,在猪源供应充足的背景下,需求跟进缓慢,市场呈现供大于求,猪价整体呈现回落态势。
进口总量下降
姬光欣介绍,由于价格不振,2017年进口猪肉的量也未能提升。“2017年我国鲜、冷、冻猪肉总进口量92.05万吨,较2016年下滑28.00%,月度量进口量呈高开低走局势。春节之后猪肉行情因成本下滑、需求低迷等因素,价格也开始走低,猪肉月度均价环比跌幅最大出现在6月份,在4.77%。下半年猪肉消费处于淡季,市场利好支撑不明显,加之产品供应充足,猪肉均价在20-21元/公斤上下震荡。猪肉跟随生猪行情波动,表现有一定的滞后性,波动幅度和频率也存在差异,主要是因为屠宰厂考虑猪肉销售情况和巩固下游批发商的合作关系。”
目前来看,卓创资讯预测,2018年生猪自繁自养盈利值基本在盈亏线之上,年度平均盈利值预计为31.58元/头,同比降幅81.19%。
snowlei52189
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Re: 生猪养殖头均盈利200元 2018年整体价格仍将走低
January 04, 2018, 12:51:21 PM
#2
猪肉最近可涨价不少啊
luciferon
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Re: 生猪养殖头均盈利200元 2018年整体价格仍将走低
January 04, 2018, 01:09:41 PM
#3
猪仔这么便宜的?
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