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美国市场税改与加息下的投资机遇
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Topic: 美国市场税改与加息下的投资机遇 (Read 89 times)
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美国市场税改与加息下的投资机遇
January 04, 2018, 06:07:24 PM
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联储公布12月会议纪要,税收改革方案可能推动美联储更快加息。大多数美联储成员赞成逐步加息,也有一些成员表示需要加快加息,美国经济因减税而提振,预期2018年加息三次。首先,美国经济国内生产总值增长约2.5%,目前低于预期3%。美联储会议纪要支指出,税改推动经济增长预期。其次,低税率意味着美国人有额外现金支出,有助于消费。企业可以用额外资金扩大生产。2017年12月美联储将利率提高至1.25%至1.5%,劳动力市场较为强劲,预期2018年加息三次。再次,通货膨胀低于预期可能是放缓加息的因素。(二)减税与加息下的市场机遇在哪里呢?第一,周三美国供应链协会发布采购经理人指数,数据好于预期。12月制造业扩张,木制品和纺织厂活动下降。18个行业中有16个增长。美国汽车销售八年来首次下降,2016年是美国汽车制造业创纪录的一年,2017年汽车销售放缓。越野车、皮卡等利润率较高的车型销售较为强劲。第二,经济学知识告诉我们,实体经济与金融市场相互联系相辅相成,金融市场以实体经济为基础,实体经济发展推升金融股市繁荣。美国市场在2008年以后宽松货币推升金融股市上涨,美国股市金融市场更加需要实体经济支持。第三,减税,加息,有助于推动制造业领域加快降低成本。利润=收入-成本,税费降低,利润增长。企业营收增长,不仅提高员工工资,提高股东回报,也能够推升消费者物价指数与通货膨胀上涨,加息能够抑制通货膨胀过高,通货膨胀回升与劳动力市场强劲是美联储加息的经济数据支持。第四,美联储会议纪要显示,税收改革能促进更快地加息。从企业财报角度分析,税收降低企业税费成本,收入不变或增加下,利润均增长,企业利润增长支持股票价格,并且,提升股东回报,有助于提升消费者物价指数,物价指数上涨意味着通货膨胀上升。通货膨胀逐渐达到2%美联储目标,美联储将加快加息。第五,美国股市更加需要实体制造业复苏。美国2017年12月汽车销售下滑,2016年美国汽车行业达到创纪录一年,2017年12月汽车销售放缓,然而,越野车、皮卡等车型销售依然强劲,汽车产业发展有助于推动制造业发展,减税与加息,有助于推动制造业发展,现在可能是制造业降低成本与发展好时机。
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美国市场税改与加息下的投资机遇
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