Bitcoin is surging towards a serious mining problem — and no one knows what will

[bitcoinzen]

Bitcoin is surging towards a serious mining problem — and no one knows what will happen when it gets there Business Insider UK spoke with University of Cambridge Research Fellow Garrick Hileman about cryptocurrency mining and the potential problems that it could bring in the future. He explains that the amount of Bitcoin rewarded for mining is halved every four years which means that it will be less profitable..

Garrick Hileman: So as we look into the future and the reward of new Bitcoins is reduced from the current 12.5 to about 6.25 new Bitcoins every ten minutes which will occur in around July 2020. Eventually you get to the point where the nominal number of new Bitcoins you earn for mining Bitcoin becomes quite small..

But ultimately the number of new Bitcoins coming into existence through mining will be cut to zero. We’ll hit the 21 million limit and the only direct financial incentive left to mine Bitcoin will be transaction fees and there’s an open question as to whether or not the transaction fees will provide a sufficient financial incentive to maintain the kind of computing power that Bitcoin enjoys today which is essential to its security..

If the computational power applied to the Bitcoin network is reduced sufficiently it arguably makes it easier to mount a 51 per cent attack to disrupt the network and so there could be some issues down the road if the rewards are not sufficient. However there could be a reason to subsidise the cost of mining if Bitcoin continues to be a valuable asset because, simply, they own a lot of Bitcoin and so they are willing to lose money on mining to maintain a secure network..

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-surging-towards-serious-mining-163000103.html

[buytheeffinD]

Switch system to POS instead of the current POW and you have a solution. Pretty sure that isn't the only other one either and you can bet they will find a solution for something that is huge in terms of $$.

[Ozero]

The figures show that 16 out of 21 million bitcoins have already been mined. If bitcoin faces the problem of financing transactions in the near future, this problem should be solved differently than an increase in fees for miners. It could be something like a network of lightning, on a test transaction which it was carried out almost instantly, without waiting for any confirmation and without payment for the transaction. I am sure that there are many options for solving this problem and, if desired, this problem can be successfully solved.

[Herbert2020]

He explains that the amount of Bitcoin rewarded for mining is halved every four years which means that it will be less profitable...

this statement is incomplete!
...be less profitable... IF
1. price remains the same or drops
2. hashrate remains the same or increases

first of all history shows that price rises because of this supply cut to half. every halving price surges upwards. secondly if mining become "less profitable" miners will leave and with decrease in hashrate it become "more profitable" again. and with the high and increasing price that is not a problem.

But ultimately the number of new Bitcoins coming into existence through mining will be cut to zero. We’ll hit the 21 million limit and the only direct financial incentive left to mine Bitcoin will be transaction fees and there’s an open question as to whether or not the transaction fees will provide a sufficient financial incentive to maintain the kind of computing power that Bitcoin enjoys today which is essential to its security..

that is going to happen in about a hundred years!

If the computational power applied to the Bitcoin network is reduced sufficiently it arguably makes it easier to mount a 51 per cent attack to disrupt the network and so there could be some issues down the road if the rewards are not sufficient.

true, but not for a very long time and there are a lot of things that  can easily be done to prevent it. a simple algorithm change comes to mind to change the PoW, and lots of other things.

discussing these things a long way before they even become a thing and without mentioning the simple solutions is very misleading in my opinion.

[jdbtracker]

Bitcoin is intended to do this on purpose.

A change in the way the POW is calculated can improve the speed at which the hashes are computed.
Some mathematics applied through a FPGA could find a more efficient ASIC configuration.
I can imagine with a predictive branching system it could crush the current computing system.

There are mathematical methods to absolutely annihilate the encryption methods... it could be fun to launch an all out assault on the hashing system.
Allow the network to start looking for collisions in the hashes, make it start actively monitoring and analyzing the mining network.