How Likely Is It That Bitcoin Will Hit $500k In Three Years?

[bbc.reporter]

From the article below, I reckon we will see John McAfee eat his own penis on national TV hehehe? According to it, there is only a 1 - 10% chance for bitcoin to reach $500k in the next year, and beyond that, it is harder to know. So meaning there is a 90% or so chance for John McAfee to perform what has not been performed on TV ever.

Also, have we been deluding ourselves about bitcoin's price projections all this time? Do you still believe it can reach all those crazy predictions of $100k - $500k per coin?



So — to summarize, we are probably looking at a range of 1–10% probability of reaching $500,000 in the next year, depending on how you model it. Beyond that, it’s harder to know, with changes happening to the market like introduction of futures, but eventually there may be a liquid market for making such predictions through options.

Read the full article https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2018/01/05/how-likely-is-it-that-bitcoin-will-hit-500k-in-three-years/#1d5313ec5b4b

[player514]

From the article below, I reckon we will see John McAfee eat his own penis on national TV hehehe? According to it, there is only a 1 - 10% chance for bitcoin to reach $500k in the next year, and beyond that, it is harder to know. So meaning there is a 90% or so chance for John McAfee to perform what has not been performed on TV ever.

Also, have we been deluding ourselves about bitcoin's price projections all this time? Do you still believe it can reach all those crazy predictions of $100k - $500k per coin?



So — to summarize, we are probably looking at a range of 1–10% probability of reaching $500,000 in the next year, depending on how you model it. Beyond that, it’s harder to know, with changes happening to the market like introduction of futures, but eventually there may be a liquid market for making such predictions through options.

Read the full article https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2018/01/05/how-likely-is-it-that-bitcoin-will-hit-500k-in-three-years/#1d5313ec5b4b

I don't know how I feel about such long term predictions of Bitcoin. The short term is unknown itself; pushing into the long term is even more unknown. I feel like there are certain downsides to Bitcoin that can't really be fixed without interrupting what it's known for. Adding the lightning network brings in a form of centralization which many people won't like. It seems like in that time, if crypto is really the new wave of currency, there will be some stable altcoin to take bitcoins place because not many people can trust the volatility of BTC.

[davis196]

John McAfee just spreads hype around bitcoin and there`s nothing wrong about that.I like more the people,who spread hype ,rather than the people ,who spread FUD about btc.Every btc HODLer should like people like John McAfee.I don`t think that anybody believes that btc will hit 500K USD,even after 20 years.
But sometimes it`s good to be optimistic and keep the faith.

[Denker]

From the article below, I reckon we will see John McAfee eat his own penis on national TV hehehe? According to it, there is only a 1 - 10% chance for bitcoin to reach $500k in the next year, and beyond that, it is harder to know. So meaning there is a 90% or so chance for John McAfee to perform what has not been performed on TV ever.

Also, have we been deluding ourselves about bitcoin's price projections all this time? Do you still believe it can reach all those crazy predictions of $100k - $500k per coin?



So — to summarize, we are probably looking at a range of 1–10% probability of reaching $500,000 in the next year, depending on how you model it. Beyond that, it’s harder to know, with changes happening to the market like introduction of futures, but eventually there may be a liquid market for making such predictions through options.

Read the full article https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2018/01/05/how-likely-is-it-that-bitcoin-will-hit-500k-in-three-years/#1d5313ec5b4b

Forget what the mainstream media or some "celebs" write or say.
Listen to people who work on Bitcoin since many years and know what they are talking about. Not the hypers who are just interested in public attention and making a quick buck.
Bitcoin hitting the $500k area in three years is not possible imo. Maybe $100k-$150k at a sustainable level, but not more. And even that would be still very impressive. Why this is possible? Well in mid 2020 we will have the next halving, cutting block reward down to 6.25 coins per block. I expect to see 1-2 ETFs until then, much more big investors getting in, like pension funds etc, due to Bitcoin's deflationary effects and not correlating with traditional assets.
$500k can happen for sure, but this will take another ~10 years at least. So not before 2027-2028.
But this all will only be possible if Bitcoin keeps being the number one coin and being the anchor for anything else getting build in this space.

[amaydel]

The crypto needs people with minds like John McAfee  that is very open minded on what crypto really brings to the economy of a nation. Spreading good news that may help motivate others to embrace this breakthrough technology.

[Asrael999]

<1%, but more than zero.

[francis2]

It is interesting they do not claim the chance to be zero, in fat that values seem to be very high, I would way the chances of bitcoin reaching that price are not zero, but are way bellow those proposed in that article, probably something close to 0.001% and even that seems high.

[Typex]

It is interesting they do not claim the chance to be zero, in fat that values seem to be very high, I would way the chances of bitcoin reaching that price are not zero, but are way bellow those proposed in that article, probably something close to 0.001% and even that seems high.

Technically a probability of zero infers an impossibility.  It is very unlikely it will be 500K next year or any year for that matter.

[gentlemand]

An asset that is already 80% created with hardly anyone here still, many a hardened holder actively hostile to the existing financial system, no way of making more of them than usual, no way of faking them.

I'd say those conditions are all contributors in making that prediction rather less ludicrous than it first sounds, though it still is of course.

[akram143]

From the article below, I reckon we will see John McAfee eat his own penis on national TV hehehe? According to it, there is only a 1 - 10% chance for bitcoin to reach $500k in the next year, and beyond that, it is harder to know. So meaning there is a 90% or so chance for John McAfee to perform what has not been performed on TV ever.

Also, have we been deluding ourselves about bitcoin's price projections all this time? Do you still believe it can reach all those crazy predictions of $100k - $500k per coin?



So — to summarize, we are probably looking at a range of 1–10% probability of reaching $500,000 in the next year, depending on how you model it. Beyond that, it’s harder to know, with changes happening to the market like introduction of futures, but eventually there may be a liquid market for making such predictions through options.

Read the full article https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2018/01/05/how-likely-is-it-that-bitcoin-will-hit-500k-in-three-years/#1d5313ec5b4b

It is too hard to predict about this now because bitcoin is struggling now with high transaction fee and longer waiting time.So reaching $500K at the end of 2020 looks impossible.I don't know even bitcoin will go to $500K in the whole life because many altcoins are started to emerge due to high transaction fee in bitcoin.

[Chris314]

It seems very hard to reach 500 k$ at the end of the year. An as good 2018 year as 2017 would bring bitcoin to 150k$, 500$ is quite a step further.
It may be possible in 3 years, but reaching this price level also means usd will lose in value, possible if bitcoin is spreading as a useful and used currency.

[Idrisu]

Bitcoin may surpass that value in the next three years and I stand with McAfee on this as the likelihood that his predictions is going to come to pass is very high. Bitcoin may have some set back recently but that doesn't mean is not going to get pump in some days to come. This article may not rightly state the fact and of a thought we may predict the future based on what has happened! If the percentage of movement we have this year repeated itself then $500,000 is very much in sight.

[A1exander]

I agree that the probability is low. Two consecutive years of 10x increase (that would be 100x in 2 years) are highly unlikely, so I doubt we'll see $100k in 2018.

[buwaytress]

Hard to say what's crazy these days. A thousand was crazy years ago, I have even seen threads of people giving up on the bubble mania of $50 even, and myself I was around when 4k and 5k were well celebrated. $10,000 was never supposed to happen so soon. McAfee himself I felt prematurely changed his 2020 estimate to $1 million, doubling up on half a million since his own 2017 projections was only 5k. Based on his luck, we should see a 1.5 mil price by end of 2020.

But as much as I continue to believe and hope in Bitcoin, I'm prepared for a long, extended bear period that might catch even the most pessimistic by surprise. So much selling pressure (in the sense of alt buying with Bitcoin) and the new money will not stop pouring in. People already point to BTC dominance as a sign, I don't think so, but greed certainly has a place and crypto and this year will see alts take prominence, before their shaky foundations show up in 2019 and beyond. Then we'll see Bitcoin regain its standing - as the most recognised, most viable of them all.

[DrGuns4Hands]

The probability is so low if you look at it, Bitcoin price is so hard to predict because it is changing frequently. It seems hard to reach $500,000 in the 3 years because it is nearly impossible but if many people have an interest on bitcoin and they've invested in it then maybe it will surely happen.

[nl247]

I would not say it is impossible and I would also not say it is possible. I would not have thought that bitcoin would hit the price it did last year, so anything can happen and anything is definitely possible. However, looking at the way things are, I am not sure if we can have such a possibility in three years as that seems too much even though we have seen too much rise in value recently anyway.

[Lucius]

Forget what the mainstream media or some "celebs" write or say.
Listen to people who work on Bitcoin since many years and know what they are talking about. Not the hypers who are just interested in public attention and making a quick buck.
Bitcoin hitting the $500k area in three years is not possible imo. Maybe $100k-$150k at a sustainable level, but not more. And even that would be still very impressive. Why this is possible? Well in mid 2020 we will have the next halving, cutting block reward down to 6.25 coins per block. I expect to see 1-2 ETFs until then, much more big investors getting in, like pension funds etc, due to Bitcoin's deflationary effects and not correlating with traditional assets.
$500k can happen for sure, but this will take another ~10 years at least. So not before 2027-2028.
But this all will only be possible if Bitcoin keeps being the number one coin and being the anchor for anything else getting build in this space.

I share similar thoughts with you,500k $ in three years is just too much and I do not know what should happen to achieve this price.Last year was great regarding price increase,but it is difficult(or impossible) that same thing happen again this year.I have my calculation for the next 10 years based just on simple speculation that price will go up only 50% every year.So if we took 15k$ as start,then 2027 we would have 576K for one BTC,and in year 2023 we cross 100k $ level.

I know there is people who expect more rapid growth,but if price go up growth is likely to slow down.Even 50% per year may sound somehow optimistic,but it is still more realistic then 500k $ in next three years.