Expected monthly difficulty increase?

[NWO]

Now that ASICs are truly out into the wild, roughly what increase percentage could we expect per month in difficulty? I am considering an ASIC order but I don't want it to be a paperweight on arrival...

[Olly_K]

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

[snootch]

Now that ASICs are truly out into the wild, roughly what increase percentage could we expect per month in difficulty? I am considering an ASIC order but I don't want it to be a paperweight on arrival...

I'm in the same boat. Just about to pull the trigger on a Bitfury setup with 4 cards (100GH/s=$2800). So, this is my thought process:


1 April it was 6.6M
1 May it was 10M (+3.4)
1 June it was 12.1M (+2.1)
1 July it was 21.3M (+9.2)
1 August it was 31.2M (+9.9)

The last month has had an average of 9.5M increase.
Today is the 9th of August, not yet the middle of the month, and difficulty is 37.3 (+6.1)
So if this continues, we'll probably see an increase of 15-18M from 1 August to 1 Sept, leaving the difficulty at 46.2 to 49.2
If I was a betting man, due to the amount of ASIC's hitting the market in September through the rest of the year, i'd bet it's safe to probably double that number (i'll go with 15, so than means 30M) for every month after September. So, assuming 1BTC=USD $100:

1 September: 61M to  1 October: 91M. Average is 76M. @ 100GH/s with $0.30 power (100W)= $1951 after power costs. ($22)
1 October: 91M to 1 November: 121M. Average is  106M. @ 100GH/s with $0.30 power (100W)= $1392 after power costs.
1 November 121M to 1 December 151M. Average is 136M. @ 100GH/s with $0.30 power (100W)= $1080 after power costs.
1 December 151M to 1 January 181M. Average is 166M. @ 100GH/s with $0.30 power (100W)= $881 after power costs.
1 January 181M to 1 February 211M. Average is 196M. @ 100GH/s with $0.30 power (100W)= $743 after power costs.
1 February 211M to 1 March 241M. Average is 226M. @ 100GH/s with $0.30 power (100W)= $641 after power costs.

So, I think realistically... If you spent $2800 for 100GH/s, recieved it 1 November and hashed until the end of the March 2014, you'd have ROI and a $545 profit.
Now i'm able to afford a new H-Card ($500=25GH/s) and have it installed and hashing at the end of March. So my realized gain since the beginning of November is $45.

At this point, I think the ASIC arms race will cause difficulty to plateau a bit, having chased all the GPU miners off and probably the guys who bought a single Jalapeno or have just a few Block eruptors. Only the people who have 50GH/s or more will stay in the game. so instead of the monthly 30M increases, let's call it 20M increases.

So now with 125GH/s and 20M increases per month:

1 March 241M to 1 April 261M. Average is 251M. @ 125GH/s with $0.30 power (125W)= $717 after power costs.
1 April 261M to 1 May 281M. Average is  271. @ 125GH/s with $0.30 power (125W)= $663 after power costs.

At this point, you've made $1380. Time to buy a few new H-cards, don't you think? Buy two H-Cards (50GH/s=$1K) Hashing power is now 175GH/s and power costs are $38. Your profit since you started mining  is now $380.

1 May 281M to 1 Jun 301M. Average is 291M. @ 175GH/s with $.030 power (175W)= $863 after power costs
1 Jun 301M to 1 Jul 321M. Average is 311M. @ 175GH/s with $.030 power (175W)= $805 after power costs
1 Jul 321M to 1 Aug 341M. Average is 331M. @ 175GH/s with $.030 power (175W)= $753 after power costs.

Now it's August 2014 and your profit since you started mining is $2801

Okay, i'm not goig to keep going on, but you see the picture. You are going to have to keep buying hashing power to stay profitable above ROI. I know that difficulty will not be as linear as that, but it is my conservative guess on starting with a 100GH/s/$2800 investment. I'f i'm being too conservative, then i't just a faster ROI and more profit. But others are saying the difficulty will be as high as 500M by the end of 2013. Who knows? Time will tell. But I DO know you won't make anything if you don't at least try.
 

[NWO]

Now that ASICs are truly out into the wild, roughly what increase percentage could we expect per month in difficulty? I am considering an ASIC order but I don't want it to be a paperweight on arrival...

I'm in the same boat. Just about to pull the trigger on a Bitfury setup with 4 cards (100GH/s=$2800). So, this is my thought process:


1 April it was 6.6M
1 May it was 10M (+3.4)
1 June it was 12.1M (+2.1)
1 July it was 21.3M (+9.2)
1 August it was 31.2M (+9.9)

The last month has had an average of 9.5M increase.
Today is the 9th of August, not yet the middle of the month, and difficulty is 37.3 (+6.1)
So if this continues, we'll probably see an increase of 15-18M from 1 August to 1 Sept, leaving the difficulty at 46.2 to 49.2
If I was a betting man, due to the amount of ASIC's hitting the market in September through the rest of the year, i'd bet it's safe to probably double that number (i'll go with 15, so than means 30M) for every month after September. So, assuming 1BTC=USD $100:

1 September: 61M to  1 October: 91M. Average is 76M. @ 100GH/s with $0.30 power (100W)= $1951 after power costs. ($22)
1 October: 91M to 1 November: 121M. Average is  106M. @ 100GH/s with $0.30 power (100W)= $1392 after power costs.
1 November 121M to 1 December 151M. Average is 136M. @ 100GH/s with $0.30 power (100W)= $1080 after power costs.
1 December 151M to 1 January 181M. Average is 166M. @ 100GH/s with $0.30 power (100W)= $881 after power costs.
1 January 181M to 1 February 211M. Average is 196M. @ 100GH/s with $0.30 power (100W)= $743 after power costs.
1 February 211M to 1 March 241M. Average is 226M. @ 100GH/s with $0.30 power (100W)= $641 after power costs.

So, I think realistically... If you spent $2800 for 100GH/s, recieved it 1 November and hashed until the end of the March 2014, you'd have ROI and a $545 profit.
Now i'm able to afford a new H-Card ($500=25GH/s) and have it installed and hashing at the end of March. So my realized gain since the beginning of November is $45.

At this point, I think the ASIC arms race will cause difficulty to plateau a bit, having chased all the GPU miners off and probably the guys who bought a single Jalapeno or have just a few Block eruptors. Only the people who have 50GH/s or more will stay in the game. so instead of the monthly 30M increases, let's call it 20M increases.

So now with 125GH/s and 20M increases per month:

1 March 241M to 1 April 261M. Average is 251M. @ 125GH/s with $0.30 power (125W)= $717 after power costs.
1 April 261M to 1 May 281M. Average is  271. @ 125GH/s with $0.30 power (125W)= $663 after power costs.

At this point, you've made $1380. Time to buy a few new H-cards, don't you think? Buy two H-Cards (50GH/s=$1K) Hashing power is now 175GH/s and power costs are $38. Your profit since you started mining  is now $380.

1 May 281M to 1 Jun 301M. Average is 291M. @ 175GH/s with $.030 power (175W)= $863 after power costs
1 Jun 301M to 1 Jul 321M. Average is 311M. @ 175GH/s with $.030 power (175W)= $805 after power costs
1 Jul 321M to 1 Aug 341M. Average is 331M. @ 175GH/s with $.030 power (175W)= $753 after power costs.

Now it's August 2014 and your profit since you started mining is $2801

Okay, i'm not goig to keep going on, but you see the picture. You are going to have to keep buying hashing power to stay profitable above ROI. I know that difficulty will not be as linear as that, but it is my conservative guess on starting with a 100GH/s/$2800 investment. I'f i'm being too conservative, then i't just a faster ROI and more profit. But others are saying the difficulty will be as high as 500M by the end of 2013. Who knows? Time will tell. But I DO know you won't make anything if you don't at least try.
 

Cheers! I was following a similar thought process.

For such a well written out response, I will save you $800  

https://www.kncminer.com/products/mercury

[abdullahadam]

Today is the 9th of August, not yet the middle of the month, and difficulty is 37.3 (+6.1)

Well today is middle of the month and the difficulty is 50mill.

[sdmented]

You may find this useful.  I took a lot of time to make it.

http://sdrv.ms/16njy51

Hope it helps you in your decision making

[abdullahadam]

You may find this useful.  I took a lot of time to make it.

http://sdrv.ms/16njy51

Hope it helps you in your decision making

To be honest your sheet is nice, but http://mining.thegenesisblock.com is much better.  But really the important part is not these tools, but rather an analysis of the difficulty increase, because at the end of the day all these calculators will do is spit out numbers based on the input.  Need to think more deeply about what numbers make the most sense to plug in

[sdmented]

No I get that, I guess this is aimed to help predict the future a bit, but with your own predictions.. You can look at the scaling increases from the historical data and make your own estimations of what the difficulty will be at.  Then take the average of the percentage increase and predict further out..  It lets you change the numbers to your liking where they don't really let you change the data.  

[abdullahadam]

It lets you change the numbers to your liking where they don't really let you change the data.  

It does let you change the data. Almost every variable on that page is configurable.  Also you can set a fixed difficulty increase vs percent and so on

[alp]

It lets you change the numbers to your liking where they don't really let you change the data.  

It does let you change the data. Almost every variable on that page is configurable.  Also you can set a fixed difficulty increase vs percent and so on

Change the numbers until it's profitable!

[abdullahadam]

Change the numbers until it's profitable!

If only it was that easy :-)

[sdmented]

Step 1.) Make chart
Step 2.)  ....
Step 3.) Profit!

[cryptrol]

I think you all are being a bit optimistic about the difficulty increase.
There are a lot of manufacturers expecting to deliver _before_ the end of year, if they keep their promises, difficulty _will_ skyrocket like never before.

My advice is to ignore any advices. I will hold until all the ASIC peta-hashes are running to see some _serious_ decrease of the miner prices.
The only people making really serious bucks are the ASIC manufacturers and integrators.

[LukasP33]

well the difficulty is already increasing very quickly right now, but what will happen if the BabyJet and the monarch get shipped :S I'm afraid mining with a device smaller than 100GH wouldn't even be really profitable anymore

[snootch]

well the difficulty is already increasing very quickly right now, but what will happen if the BabyJet and the monarch get shipped :S I'm afraid mining with a device smaller than 100GH wouldn't even be really profitable anymore

Well, you have a point, but here's a few thoughts of mine:

1. I (at least) got into mining as a hobby, as I like the IT and technology aspect of it. I'm not really into it as a money-maker.
2. I know people who fly remote control helicopters & planes. Those guys can drop $5K easily on a new aircraft. Me dropping <$3K on a miner isn't much different.
3. Even if difficulty goes vertical, and TH/s are added to the network, i'll still be generating coins, just not nearly as fast as I used to.
4. BTC/LTC price can do anything at this point. Most countries haven't adoped a pro/con stance for/against BTC yet. What happens if/when it becomes widespread and prices jump?
5. If #4 becomes reality, wouldn't you rather be sitting on coins you mined rather than having to start mining anew?

Just a few thoughts... maybe my predictions are optimistic, but crypto coins are really a new tech that hasn't truly seen acceptance yet. Granted, I havent been mining since 2011 or anything, but I think we're still on the ground floor and the only way is up at this point. Sitting on your hands and waiting isn't going to help.