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关于比特币和区块链的九个预言:比特币就是人类数字资产时代的黄金
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Topic: 关于比特币和区块链的九个预言:比特币就是人类数字资产时代的黄金 (Read 65 times)
waitinglin0909
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关于比特币和区块链的九个预言:比特币就是人类数字资产时代的黄金
January 08, 2018, 10:04:43 AM
#1
全球黄金资产价值约合100万亿美金,如果2100万枚比特币仅仅取代其中的1%, 每枚比特币的估值就将是5万美金,是目前价格的3倍。
1. 如果中国ZF不让你做的事,你抢先做了,你大概率要发财了; 如果同时美国ZF也警告你,你还是做了,那恭喜你,你肯定要发大财了: 这就是比特币的故事。
2. 重要的事情我说三遍: 比特币就是人类数字资产时代的黄金。人类社会对资产的占有是从实物资产过渡到金融资产并将迁移到数字资产。
千万不要相信巴菲特合伙人芒格老先生有关比特币是骗局的话,因为比特币从来就不是价值投资者的菜,如同黄金从来不是价值投资(巴菲特永远告诫投资者不买黄金),但人类文明一直将黄金作为重要资产持有。
我告诉小伙伴们一个简单的比特币估值方法: 全球黄金资产价值约合100万亿美金,如果2100万枚比特币仅仅取代其中的1%, 每枚比特币的估值就将是5万美金,是目前价格的3倍。
关于比特币和区块链的九个预言:比特币就是人类数字资产时代的黄金
3. 以比特币为代表的数字货币将在2018年从边缘投资成为主流金融逐渐接受的资产类别,原因很简单: 赚钱、赚钱、赚钱效应; 华尔街的交易所、投行、 对冲基金等都要抢着分一勺羹。
4. 数字货币继2017年后仍将继续疯狂和耀眼的表现,当中虽有大幅波动和调整,但其2018年底结算的风险-收益回报将股票等其它风险资产抛离无数条街。
5. 由于中国禁止比特币交易,中国上市公司(A股、港股或美股)的比特币或数字货币概念炒作将是以区块链名义出现,2018年区块链概念股将是异军突起的主题。
6. 2018年下半年后主要国家政府可能联手或先后对比特币和其它数字货币的交易推出某些监管举措。
7. 与比特币竞争的一些其它数字货币(altcoin)将有更佳表现,特别是一些与传统金融服务或科技巨头联手的,以及在隐私保护、交割效率等方面突出的数字货币。
8. These violent delights have violent ends. (狂暴的快乐都有狂暴的结局,莎士比亚语)
每一轮美国牛市都是以某类资产泡沫崩盘告终:
80年代是垃圾债,90年代是互联网, 08年前是房地产融资及衍生品,而这一轮大牛市将很有可能是数字货币和区块链(正好是科技与金钱的结合体,华尔街的完美痛点)。
2017年开始的比特币爆炒预示着美国牛市正在进入最后阶段。如果2018年蔓延成区块链概念主题,那就离泡沫破灭越来越近了,虽然我们无法预知时间,但2019年可能是大概率。
9. 泡沫破灭后,比特币不会消失(这将是我们一生一次的抄底机会),而伟大的区块链公司(第二代互联网公司)也将诞生,如同上一代2000年后浴火重生的Amazon 。
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