BorisAlt
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August 14, 2013, 12:26:18 AM |
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Holy cow, that's awesome man! I gotta admit, I am kind of an impulse "do it" sort of a person who moves from one shiny toy to another. If it's not "easy" for me, I usually give up and move on. When I discovered your thread and got a sense that you are a no shit send-it-now guy (yeah, got my money stuck in Butterfly Labs for who knows how much longer), I wanted to get some of that ASIC. I spent first 3 hours trying to figure it out this morning and almost gave up and moved to other stuff. What kept me on this thread was other people responses (plus from your previous threads) to keep on trying. Trust is a huge thing and apparently you got some on this forum. It eventually clicked for me. By late afternoon this was a "how dumb should you be to not understand how it works". It is a dramatic learning curve to obvious Please continue with what you are doing, with your patience towards newcomers like me. I can't even guess how many people considered buying from you and stopped because it was "too hard". Your system is elegant and works well and that compelled me to make screen shots and make a post. Thank you.
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TheJuice
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August 14, 2013, 12:42:15 AM |
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Just some math for those buying these miners. I was thinking of buying 100 USB Eruptors for .32 BTC each (so 32 BTC in all). That would require 10 hubs so assume another 2 BTC expensed there so 34 BTC on all which is now about 3400 USD. The latest difficulty increase is in and we went from 26,160,000 to 50,810,000 in 30 days (from 7/14 to 8/13). This is a monthly increase of 194% - completely insane. This will probably continue for a few months and then drop precipitously once all these new 28nm ASICs come online in the first few months of 2014. I will be optimistic and cut this in half to a 95% increase per month assuming a huge slowdown in the difficulty increase (I do not think this will happen). With a USB hub, 10 usb miners plus hub consume 330W/hr. I took my power costs in the US at 0.11 USD per kwh and plugged it in. Not only will you lose money but at a 95% month over month difficulty increase, these miners will only produce 18.65 BTC (out of 34 BTC invested) in 24 weeks before becoming unprofitable to continue running. A pretty big loss. In fact, in order to EVER break even on this investment, you have to assume the month over month difficulty increase will drop down from 194% to 30% to ever break even. A very unlikely scenario. If you do not pay for your power (live in a dorm) then the situtation only a little less bleak. You can break even if month over month difficulty increases drops to 35%. Also very unlikely. Here is where I get my #s: Historical Difficulty increases: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/95% month/month diff increase calculator: http://btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=50810339.048276&dcosts=3400&diff_mincrease=95&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=33400&btcusd_mincrease=0&btcusd=100.00&dpowcon=330&dleadtime=0&pcost=0.11&calcweeks=25&action=calc30% month/month diff increase calculator: http://btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=50810339.048276&dcosts=3400&diff_mincrease=30&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=33400&btcusd_mincrease=0&btcusd=100.00&dpowcon=330&dleadtime=0&pcost=0.11&calcweeks=56&action=calcConclusion: Do not buy USB eruptors or the Old Blades if you wish to make a profit. Your only hope of making money mining is to pre-order some vaporware from hashfast, cointerra, or one of the other 28nm newcomers and pray they are not a scam and can deliver on time. It is much safer to simply buy ASICMiner stock than the hardware! The numbers for a blade are only slightly better. Only will break even if difficulty goes up to only 35% month over month at stock speed. Overclocking brings that down only a little (still over 30% difficulty to break even), since significant more power is used for cooling and overclocking (and you need to pay for a cooling unit upfront) http://btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=50810339.048276&dcosts=1025&diff_mincrease=35&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=10752&btcusd_mincrease=0&btcusd=100.00&dpowcon=75&dleadtime=0&pcost=0.11&calcweeks=100&action=calcYes and no. We are seeing a backlog of 1st gen miners coming online - 600 avalon (60 THash), probably another ~100 THash from BFL+AM in the past 30 days - which is about equal to the monthly gain you mentioned. In the next month who do we have coming online? hopefully (for me), but possibly unlikely is the 10,000 avalon chips orders (~50 Thash) - after that not much more from avalon unitl gen2/3, BFL remains cryptic in output - but I'd given them another 20-40 Thashs. AM is probably good for another 30-60 Thash in sales + own network. But to continue to double each month we would need 400 Thash. Unless gen2 miners come online this month we wont hit that. I'd suspect we add 200 Thash this month. Also these miners are cheap and FUn!
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BorisAlt
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August 14, 2013, 12:58:54 AM |
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Just some math for those buying these miners. I was thinking of buying 100 USB Eruptors for .32 BTC each (so 32 BTC in all). That would require 10 hubs so assume another 2 BTC expensed there so 34 BTC on all which is now about 3400 USD. The latest difficulty increase is in and we went from 26,160,000 to 50,810,000 in 30 days (from 7/14 to 8/13). This is a monthly increase of 194% - completely insane. This will probably continue for a few months and then drop precipitously once all these new 28nm ASICs come online in the first few months of 2014. I will be optimistic and cut this in half to a 95% increase per month assuming a huge slowdown in the difficulty increase (I do not think this will happen). With a USB hub, 10 usb miners plus hub consume 330W/hr. I took my power costs in the US at 0.11 USD per kwh and plugged it in. Not only will you lose money but at a 95% month over month difficulty increase, these miners will only produce 18.65 BTC (out of 34 BTC invested) in 24 weeks before becoming unprofitable to continue running. A pretty big loss. In fact, in order to EVER break even on this investment, you have to assume the month over month difficulty increase will drop down from 194% to 30% to ever break even. A very unlikely scenario. If you do not pay for your power (live in a dorm) then the situtation only a little less bleak. You can break even if month over month difficulty increases drops to 35%. Also very unlikely. Here is where I get my #s: Historical Difficulty increases: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/95% month/month diff increase calculator: http://btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=50810339.048276&dcosts=3400&diff_mincrease=95&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=33400&btcusd_mincrease=0&btcusd=100.00&dpowcon=330&dleadtime=0&pcost=0.11&calcweeks=25&action=calc30% month/month diff increase calculator: http://btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=50810339.048276&dcosts=3400&diff_mincrease=30&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=33400&btcusd_mincrease=0&btcusd=100.00&dpowcon=330&dleadtime=0&pcost=0.11&calcweeks=56&action=calcConclusion: Do not buy USB eruptors or the Old Blades if you wish to make a profit. Your only hope of making money mining is to pre-order some vaporware from hashfast, cointerra, or one of the other 28nm newcomers and pray they are not a scam and can deliver on time. It is much safer to simply buy ASICMiner stock than the hardware! The numbers for a blade are no better. Only will break even if difficulty goes up to only 35% month over month at stock speed. Overclocking brings that down only a little (still over 30% difficulty to break even), since significant more power is used for cooling and overclocking (and you need to pay for a cooling unit upfront) http://btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=50810339.048276&dcosts=1025&diff_mincrease=35&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=10752&btcusd_mincrease=0&btcusd=100.00&dpowcon=75&dleadtime=0&pcost=0.11&calcweeks=100&action=calcProfit is not the only driver for me. Really, I can stand to lose $5-10K now playing this game. Hell, I spent more playing way dumber games But that's what I am doing now - converting some $USD to some virtual things. Let's say I make 50 bitcoins after spending $10,000 today, effectively losing $5,000 at today's rate. Now, what if 1 BTC becomes ONE MILLION DOLLARS (laugh), correction ONE BILLION DOLLARS (holding pinky to the lip). Obviously, I would be better of just "investing" in bitcoins today rather than in these silly blinking contraptions. You said ASICMINER stock. OK, I got some. But are they going to survive in 12 months or not? Dividends they are paying AT THIS TIME are not making me rich. But you know what, I want to play the game. It's all about the game. In effect, without silly people like me buying into a clearly unprofitable endeavor (you got the numbers!), this whole idea of virtual currencies is going to fold. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy of a sort and is dangerously close to a pyramid. Except one thing - it may happen and people will start using bitcoins. So worst case - I lose $5,000. Best case - I make 50 billion dollars and go on a quest to conquer the Earth :O Canary, bring more ASIC! Again, thanks to Canary I can play better!
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mechs
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August 14, 2013, 01:02:37 AM |
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[/quote] Profit is not the only driver for me. Really, I can stand to lose $5-10K now playing this game. Hell, I spent more playing way dumber games But that's what I am doing now - converting some $USD to some virtual things. Let's say I make 50 bitcoins after spending $10,000 today, effectively losing $5,000 at today's rate. Now, what if 1 BTC becomes ONE MILLION DOLLARS (laugh), correction ONE BILLION DOLLARS (holding pinky to the lip). Obviously, I would be better of just "investing" in bitcoins today rather than in these silly blinking contraptions. You said ASICMINER stock. OK, I got some. But are they going to survive in 12 months or not? Dividends they are paying AT THIS TIME are not making me rich. But you know what, I want to play the game. It's all about the game. In effect, without silly people like me buying into a clearly unprofitable endeavor (you got the numbers!), this whole idea of virtual currencies is going to fold. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy of a sort and is dangerously close to a pyramid. Except one thing - it may happen and people will start using bitcoins. So worst case - I lose $5,000. Best case - I make 50 billion dollars and go on a quest to conquer the Earth :O Canary, bring more ASIC! Again, thanks to Canary I can play better! [/quote] If you are betting on the appreciation of Bitcoin and accept this is 99% a losing investment in hardware, why not just buy the bitcoins and put them in cold storage. It would be more profitable to just let them appreciate. Or make a gamble on pre-ordering some 28nm ASIC vaporware - high risk but at least their is a chance of a return if they deliver as promised and on-time.
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Spendulus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1386
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August 14, 2013, 01:13:26 AM |
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....So worst case - I lose $5,000. Best case - I make 50 billion dollars and go on a quest to conquer the Earth :O....
What? What if that 50 billion only buy one hamburger? And you want fries?
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BorisAlt
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August 14, 2013, 01:13:51 AM |
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If you are betting on the appreciation of Bitcoin and accept this is 99% a losing investment in hardware, why not just buy the bitcoins and put them in cold storage. It would be more profitable to just let them appreciate. Or make a gamble on pre-ordering some 28nm ASIC vaporware - high risk but at least their is a chance of a return if they deliver as promised and on-time.
Because that's not a game, it's a boring banking stuff. I want to have real blinking things that generate non-existing virtual "things" that yet somehow I can convert to coffee when I travel to San Francisco. It's simply fascinating. I am not an economist but a guy who wants to play games. Sorry, I do not have deeper answers I guess most people are not like me but I am simply having fun with these contraptions.
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mechs
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August 14, 2013, 01:17:17 AM |
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If you are betting on the appreciation of Bitcoin and accept this is 99% a losing investment in hardware, why not just buy the bitcoins and put them in cold storage. It would be more profitable to just let them appreciate. Or make a gamble on pre-ordering some 28nm ASIC vaporware - high risk but at least their is a chance of a return if they deliver as promised and on-time.
Because that's not a game, it's a boring banking stuff. I want to have real blinking things that generate non-existing virtual "things" that yet somehow I can convert to coffee when I travel to San Francisco. It's simply fascinating. I am not an economist but a guy who wants to play games. Sorry, I do not have deeper answers I guess most people are not like me but I am simply having fun with these contraptions. Fair enough. I have a single USB eruptor I run 24/7 on one of my computers. I do not do it for profit at all (it will never break even, but it came close!). I just like to help secure the bitcoin network, without killing my GPU and raising my electric bill in the process. There is a big difference though between spend .35 BTC on a single USB eruptor (equivalent of $35) and $10,250 or 10 blades!
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clicknbuyit
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 15
Merit: 0
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August 14, 2013, 01:31:47 AM |
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Just some math for those buying these miners. I was thinking of buying 100 USB Eruptors for .32 BTC each (so 32 BTC in all). That would require 10 hubs so assume another 2 BTC expensed there so 34 BTC on all which is now about 3400 USD. The latest difficulty increase is in and we went from 26,160,000 to 50,810,000 in 30 days (from 7/14 to 8/13). This is a monthly increase of 94% - completely insane. This will probably continue for a few months and then drop precipitously once all these new 28nm ASICs come online in the first few months of 2014. Assuming a continued 95% increase per month difficulty increases (a likely scenario for the next several months with all the new hardware coming online). With a USB hub, 10 usb miners plus hub consume 330W/hr. I took my power costs in the US at 0.11 USD per kwh and plugged it in. Not only will you lose money but at a 95% month over month difficulty increase, these miners will only produce 18.65 BTC (out of 34 BTC invested) in 24 weeks before becoming unprofitable to continue running. A pretty big loss. In fact, in order to EVER break even on this investment, you have to assume the month over month difficulty increase will drop down from 194% to 30% to ever break even. A very unlikely scenario. If you do not pay for your power (live in a dorm) then the situtation only a little less bleak. You can break even if month over month difficulty increases drops to 35%. Also very unlikely. Here is where I get my #s: Historical Difficulty increases: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/95% month/month diff increase calculator: http://btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=50810339.048276&dcosts=3400&diff_mincrease=95&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=33400&btcusd_mincrease=0&btcusd=100.00&dpowcon=330&dleadtime=0&pcost=0.11&calcweeks=25&action=calc30% month/month diff increase calculator: http://btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=50810339.048276&dcosts=3400&diff_mincrease=30&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=33400&btcusd_mincrease=0&btcusd=100.00&dpowcon=330&dleadtime=0&pcost=0.11&calcweeks=56&action=calcConclusion: Do not buy USB eruptors or the Old Blades if you wish to make a profit. Your only hope of making money mining is to pre-order some vaporware from hashfast, cointerra, or one of the other 28nm newcomers and pray they are not a scam and can deliver on time. It is much safer to simply buy ASICMiner stock than the hardware! The numbers for a blade are no better. Only will break even if difficulty goes up to only 35% month over month at stock speed. Overclocking brings that down only a little (still over 30% difficulty to break even), since significant more power is used for cooling and overclocking (and you need to pay for a cooling unit upfront) http://btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=50810339.048276&dcosts=1025&diff_mincrease=35&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=10752&btcusd_mincrease=0&btcusd=100.00&dpowcon=75&dleadtime=0&pcost=0.11&calcweeks=100&action=calcI agree!!! How do you buy ASICMiner stock than the hardware! Thankyou.
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jshinra
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 23
Merit: 0
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August 14, 2013, 01:44:17 AM |
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What's your deadline for this group buy? I have to wait for my limit to clear on btcQuick before I can have enough coins to make a complete purchase otherwise, I can just go with what I have. Thanks!
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prometheuss
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 17
Merit: 0
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August 14, 2013, 01:55:45 AM |
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I agree!!!
How do you buy ASICMiner stock than the hardware!
Thankyou.
ask mechs since he tried to yesterday but fell short on his bid (should have went to 4 mechs its still a deal at that price point) CITM provides a service and a great one at that so imho you guys should let him do his thing here and discuss this here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=81.0
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guytechie
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August 14, 2013, 02:26:19 AM |
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What's your deadline for this group buy? I have to wait for my limit to clear on btcQuick before I can have enough coins to make a complete purchase otherwise, I can just go with what I have. Thanks!
I have the waiting problem, too. All for 0.002 BTC for transaction fee (but have to mine to 0.01 to cash out).
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Put something in my tip jar if I made your day. BTC: 1MkmBHDjonAFXui6JEx9ZmEemfMtUo9Cmu
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bitterdog
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August 14, 2013, 02:38:57 AM |
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What's your deadline for this group buy? I have to wait for my limit to clear on btcQuick before I can have enough coins to make a complete purchase otherwise, I can just go with what I have. Thanks!
I have the waiting problem, too. All for 0.002 BTC for transaction fee (but have to mine to 0.01 to cash out). Whats your wallet address?
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Plesk
Member
Offline
Activity: 78
Merit: 10
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August 14, 2013, 02:39:57 AM |
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What's your deadline for this group buy? I have to wait for my limit to clear on btcQuick before I can have enough coins to make a complete purchase otherwise, I can just go with what I have. Thanks!
I have the waiting problem, too. All for 0.002 BTC for transaction fee (but have to mine to 0.01 to cash out). Tell me which BTC address and I shall donate the 0.002 BTC so that you get enough to pay. =)
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BTC: 1HhVDw7b2yb4HjKmb7DMRhwjLqyvaZo8Mt
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mechs
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August 14, 2013, 02:42:40 AM |
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I agree!!!
How do you buy ASICMiner stock than the hardware!
Thankyou.
ask mechs since he tried to yesterday but fell short on his bid (should have went to 4 mechs its still a deal at that price point) CITM provides a service and a great one at that so imho you guys should let him do his thing here and discuss this here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=81.0I would have had to bid over 4.1. The PTs are trading now for about 4 BTC so I am glad I did not up my bid anymore. I'm sure another opportunity will come along. You are right though and will not discuss in this thread anymore.
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tehelsper
Member
Offline
Activity: 68
Merit: 10
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August 14, 2013, 02:42:45 AM |
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guytechie
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August 14, 2013, 03:05:23 AM Last edit: August 14, 2013, 03:22:02 AM by guytechie |
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What's your deadline for this group buy? I have to wait for my limit to clear on btcQuick before I can have enough coins to make a complete purchase otherwise, I can just go with what I have. Thanks!
I have the waiting problem, too. All for 0.002 BTC for transaction fee (but have to mine to 0.01 to cash out). Whats your wallet address? Tell me which BTC address and I shall donate the 0.002 BTC so that you get enough to pay. =)
Thanks guys! It's 1KZDTsLdUnFMfeoXh974vzDGTBdh6WLqxS Edit: added Plesk to the thanks. Update: I got 0.005 BTC! Seriously, thanks! I can finally complete my order!
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Put something in my tip jar if I made your day. BTC: 1MkmBHDjonAFXui6JEx9ZmEemfMtUo9Cmu
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americandesi
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August 14, 2013, 03:14:42 AM |
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Just some math for those buying these miners. I was thinking of buying 100 USB Eruptors for .32 BTC each (so 32 BTC in all). That would require 10 hubs so assume another 2 BTC expensed there so 34 BTC on all which is now about 3400 USD. The latest difficulty increase is in and we went from 26,160,000 to 50,810,000 in 30 days (from 7/14 to 8/13). This is a monthly increase of 194% - completely insane. This will probably continue for a few months and then drop precipitously once all these new 28nm ASICs come online in the first few months of 2014. I will be optimistic and cut this in half to a 95% increase per month assuming a huge slowdown in the difficulty increase (I do not think this will happen). With a USB hub, 10 usb miners plus hub consume 330W/hr. I took my power costs in the US at 0.11 USD per kwh and plugged it in. Not only will you lose money but at a 95% month over month difficulty increase, these miners will only produce 18.65 BTC (out of 34 BTC invested) in 24 weeks before becoming unprofitable to continue running. A pretty big loss. In fact, in order to EVER break even on this investment, you have to assume the month over month difficulty increase will drop down from 194% to 30% to ever break even. A very unlikely scenario. If you do not pay for your power (live in a dorm) then the situtation only a little less bleak. You can break even if month over month difficulty increases drops to 35%. Also very unlikely. Here is where I get my #s: Historical Difficulty increases: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/95% month/month diff increase calculator: http://btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=50810339.048276&dcosts=3400&diff_mincrease=95&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=33400&btcusd_mincrease=0&btcusd=100.00&dpowcon=330&dleadtime=0&pcost=0.11&calcweeks=25&action=calc30% month/month diff increase calculator: http://btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=50810339.048276&dcosts=3400&diff_mincrease=30&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=33400&btcusd_mincrease=0&btcusd=100.00&dpowcon=330&dleadtime=0&pcost=0.11&calcweeks=56&action=calcConclusion: Do not buy USB eruptors or the Old Blades if you wish to make a profit. Your only hope of making money mining is to pre-order some vaporware from hashfast, cointerra, or one of the other 28nm newcomers and pray they are not a scam and can deliver on time. It is much safer to simply buy ASICMiner stock than the hardware! The numbers for a blade are only slightly better. Only will break even if difficulty goes up to only 35% month over month at stock speed. Overclocking brings that down only a little (still over 30% difficulty to break even), since significant more power is used for cooling and overclocking (and you need to pay for a cooling unit upfront) http://btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=50810339.048276&dcosts=1025&diff_mincrease=35&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=10752&btcusd_mincrease=0&btcusd=100.00&dpowcon=75&dleadtime=0&pcost=0.11&calcweeks=100&action=calcYes and no. We are seeing a backlog of 1st gen miners coming online - 600 avalon (60 THash), probably another ~100 THash from BFL+AM in the past 30 days - which is about equal to the monthly gain you mentioned. In the next month who do we have coming online? hopefully (for me), but possibly unlikely is the 10,000 avalon chips orders (~50 Thash) - after that not much more from avalon unitl gen2/3, BFL remains cryptic in output - but I'd given them another 20-40 Thashs. AM is probably good for another 30-60 Thash in sales + own network. But to continue to double each month we would need 400 Thash. Unless gen2 miners come online this month we wont hit that. I'd suspect we add 200 Thash this month. Also these miners are cheap and FUn! You missed out the major chunk of BITFURY miners for August Delivery and 100 TH that will be coming online by end of August or Early September. That itself will be close to 200 - 300 TH.
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bitterdog
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August 14, 2013, 03:16:10 AM |
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What's your deadline for this group buy? I have to wait for my limit to clear on btcQuick before I can have enough coins to make a complete purchase otherwise, I can just go with what I have. Thanks!
I have the waiting problem, too. All for 0.002 BTC for transaction fee (but have to mine to 0.01 to cash out). Whats your wallet address? Thanks! It's 1KZDTsLdUnFMfeoXh974vzDGTBdh6WLqxS all set.. Enjoy! Date: 8/13/2013 20:15 To: 1KZDTsLdUnFMfeoXh974vzDGTBdh6WLqxS Debit: -0.005 BTC Transaction fee: -0.0001 BTC Net amount: -0.0051 BTC Transaction ID: 62bd01cde86089cfe913bb19cf531ea5a115cf5d3add2330f22fe6551e9ecead
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guytechie
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August 14, 2013, 03:22:58 AM |
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What's your deadline for this group buy? I have to wait for my limit to clear on btcQuick before I can have enough coins to make a complete purchase otherwise, I can just go with what I have. Thanks!
I have the waiting problem, too. All for 0.002 BTC for transaction fee (but have to mine to 0.01 to cash out). Whats your wallet address? Thanks! It's 1KZDTsLdUnFMfeoXh974vzDGTBdh6WLqxS all set.. Enjoy! Date: 8/13/2013 20:15 To: 1KZDTsLdUnFMfeoXh974vzDGTBdh6WLqxS Debit: -0.005 BTC Transaction fee: -0.0001 BTC Net amount: -0.0051 BTC Transaction ID: 62bd01cde86089cfe913bb19cf531ea5a115cf5d3add2330f22fe6551e9ecead I can confirm I got it! Thanks! I can finally complete the order!
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Put something in my tip jar if I made your day. BTC: 1MkmBHDjonAFXui6JEx9ZmEemfMtUo9Cmu
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