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朝鲜开始突围,2018年的朝核问题将走向何方?
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Topic: 朝鲜开始突围,2018年的朝核问题将走向何方? (Read 74 times)
jmvzlfyg
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朝鲜开始突围,2018年的朝核问题将走向何方?
January 09, 2018, 04:52:23 PM
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新年伊始,朝鲜准备和韩国亲密接触了,金正恩看来专心发展经济,不和特朗普嘴炮玩了,2018年的朝核问题将走向何方呢?
回顾整个朝核危机过程,朝鲜之所以下定决心要成为核武国家,在很大程度上是美国有意逼迫的。
朝鲜拥核的动机是非常明确的,就是为了自保。朝鲜并不想用核武器来威胁美国。事实上,朝鲜一直没有放弃直接与美国谈判的意愿。对于朝鲜这样规模的国家而言,是绝对不会傻到主动挑起对美国的战争的,更遑论核战争,因为这无异于自掘坟墓。
朝鲜拥核的目的,恰恰是为了避免成为美国的打击对象。怎么能想象朝鲜会主动地攻击美国呢?设想一下,朝鲜成为核武国家,会不会成为对美国的潜在危险?如果有这种可能,那就是是在美国不放弃对朝鲜采取敌对态度的时候。
美国明明清楚朝鲜的安全诉求,但却一直以“动用武力”来恐吓朝鲜,从而使朝鲜更为坚定地走发展核武道路。
在朝核危机的漫长历史过程中,从《美朝框架协议》到六方会谈等各种谈判,朝方曾多次同意以弃核换取安全。而每一次在谈判达成协议或接近达成一致意见时,都是美国方面突然生事,导致朝鲜方面做出过激反应,从而使谈判最终失败。
可以认为,美国并不担心朝鲜成为核武国家,只是在利用朝核危机来达到某种战略目的,朝鲜的地理位置对美并不重要,也没有丰富的石油资源,如果美国对朝鲜大打出手,即使中俄不介入,美国自身捞不到多少好处,只是帮着韩国实现了国家统一,这种赔本的买卖美国不会做。
所以,美国根本不会对朝鲜动武,战争引而不发反而效果更佳。
一是完全控制韩国,朝韩矛盾越大,韩国对美国的依赖越大;小钱钱也就越多。
二是部分控制日本,朝美矛盾决定朝日矛盾,朝日矛盾虽然没有朝韩矛盾大,但日本同样需要美国的保护;小钱钱也不少。
三是对付中俄,像美国以朝鲜威胁为借口,在韩国部署萨德,就严重损害了中国和俄罗斯的安全利益。中美贸易有问题,朝核牌来一发,台海有问题,朝核牌来一发,三锅边境有问题,朝核牌来一发。
总而言之就是美国要继续主导东北亚,你的地盘我做主!
当然,时代在发展,社会在进步,力量在转换,美国不可能一直在半岛维持这种状况,那么,2018年的朝核问题将走向何方呢?
一是通过朝核危机导致朝鲜政权崩溃,无需动武从而由韩国来“统一”朝鲜全境。这样美军便前出至中国边界了。几十年了,看起来这个可能性不大。
二是不断地强化朝核危机,使东北亚地区一直处于紧张状态,既可以进一步将韩国和日本等国牢牢地拴在美国的战车上,又可挑拨中朝关系,同时给中国造成几乎是无解的战略困境。
二是默认朝鲜成为核国家后,美国通过战略拉拢和挑拨,逐渐将朝鲜从中国身边拉走,成为另一个有核的麻烦邻国。
总之,朝核危机越拖下去,对美国越有利,最不利的是中国,让美国这个更大的麻烦制造者解决麻烦,以实现朝鲜半岛的和平稳定,那是缘木求鱼。
朝韩作为朝鲜半岛问题的直接当事方,金正恩现在主动对文在演缓和关系这是好事,韩国思密达也该站起来了。。。。。
然鹅,美国可能又要背后捅刀子了,冬奥会军演是必须的,给文在演挖挖坑是可能的,希望文在演谨慎点,不要步朴槿惠的后尘了。。。。
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