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人民币升值, 欠中国1万亿美元的美国笑了, 但对中国却不是好事?
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Topic: 人民币升值, 欠中国1万亿美元的美国笑了, 但对中国却不是好事? (Read 133 times)
biyun15399
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人民币升值, 欠中国1万亿美元的美国笑了, 但对中国却不是好事?
January 10, 2018, 03:00:14 AM
#1
从去年开始,人民币就像打了鸡血一样,一直在升值。
今日,中国外汇交易中心的数据显示,人民币对美元中间价报6.4832,较前一交易日升值83个基点,为2016年5月3日以来最高。上一交易日官方收盘报6.4851,夜盘收盘报6.4887。
有投行预计2018年底人民币对美元汇率为6.28,此前预计为6.48。
然而对于坐在家里,钱都变值钱了的吃瓜群众,这是一件看起来是好事,但实际情况可能相反的大事,为什么?
什么是人民币升值?
人民币升值就是说两种不同货币存款的利差应等同于市场预期的汇率变动的百分比;用最通俗的话讲就是人民币的购买力增强。
比如在国际市场(只有在国际市场上才能体现出人民币购买力增强了)上,原本100元只能买到10个单位的商品,现在有可能可以买到20个单位。
看到这里,是不是觉得人民币升值看起来好处多多啊,为什么说会丢工作?而且这些东西看来,和我没有关系啊!
如果那么想,那你这辈子注定是个穷光蛋。
人民币升值的利与弊
人民币升值的好处不少,简单来说就是我国购买力增强,购买外国商品、对外投资、或者购买歪过资产的时候像打折大酬宾一样,忽然来了个折扣。
人民币的升值有可能促使中国的产业结构从劳动密集型向高附加值为主的方向转化。
不仅如此,人民币升值对于人民币走向世界也有一定的好处。
然而这些只是一些“小恩小惠”,长期的升值对国家经济发展其实没有太大的好处。最明显的就体现中国赖以生存之一的进出口贸易。
首先,人民币升值对于我国国库来说,并不是一件好事,因为国家的外汇储备随着升值幅度多少,相应损失。而从图中可以看到,我国连续11个月增加了外汇的储备。
其次,出口产品会因为人民币升值受到一定的影响,出口因为人民币升值,相对于外国进口商来讲是成本增加,出口的数量有所减少。
也就是说MADE IN CHINA有可能会在别的国家减少甚至消失。
最后,也就是一开始说到的失业,因为银行坏账上升,带来失业问题,FDI(外国直接投资)下降,农村地区发生通货紧缩,人民币的对外作用削弱,中国对WTO的承诺难以实现,进而带来东南亚地区的金融不稳定,甚至亚洲经济的放缓。
而且=因为我国出口产品的大部分是劳动密集型产品,出口受阻必然会加大就业压力;外资企业则是提供新增就业岗位最多的部门之一,外资增长放缓,会使国内就业形势更为严峻。
既然看起来弊大于利,人民币为什么会升值,为什么要升值呢?
人民币升值原因与意义
人民币升值有很多原因,国际收支状况,通货膨胀率的高低,宏观经济走势等。去年以来,我国国际收支状况明显改善,宏观经济企稳向好的趋势更加明显,这些都对人民币走强起到了支撑作用。
其实大家对人民币升值也不用一味的去紧张,适当的升值对于加强经济自循环的能力和增加货币政策的自由度都有好处,理性看待人民币升值、贬值。毕竟现在月薪几千的我们,只要不是在进出口。保住工作还是不难的。
xingzhankwe
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Re: 人民币升值, 欠中国1万亿美元的美国笑了, 但对中国却不是好事?
January 10, 2018, 03:13:33 AM
#2
升值却买不到美国的优质资产,这才是令中国恼火而美国暗自得意的。美国压人民币升值,不卖自己技术优势的企业,只卖自己过剩的产品,去垃圾库存得到资金发展自己本已有技术优势的企业,打得一手好算盘。
pendan
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Re: 人民币升值, 欠中国1万亿美元的美国笑了, 但对中国却不是好事?
January 10, 2018, 03:44:55 AM
#3
人民币升值的意思就是指人民币值钱了,再简单点就是钱荒了。人民币升值国内商品也不会便宜一分钱,反而会影响国内出口商品数量降低。。
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