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Author Topic: Mt GOX starting to die?  (Read 4083 times)
QuantumKiwi
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August 12, 2013, 05:22:17 AM
 #1

Is Mt Gox starting to die?

It seems like it, many people are reporting more and more issues with Mt Gox..

It also appears Mt Gox is purchasing other bitcoin related sites in a strange takeover.

Is it time Mt Gox died? Or is some thing new coming?


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August 12, 2013, 05:41:53 AM
 #2

What site are they buying?
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August 12, 2013, 05:45:21 AM
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272088.msg2915037#msg2915037
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August 12, 2013, 05:54:14 AM
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Happy to see they die, even if I lose money in the process.

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August 12, 2013, 06:01:06 AM
 #5

Happy to see they die, even if I lose money in the process.

Any particular reason why?

Do you think they have a hold on the bitcoin economy?


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August 12, 2013, 06:19:55 AM
 #6

I don't want to see MtGox die - I just want to have more options and MtGox maybe only retaining 10-30% of the traffic with 4-10 other major exchanges...
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August 12, 2013, 07:16:53 AM
 #7

Happy to see they die, even if I lose money in the process.

Any particular reason why?

Do you think they have a hold on the bitcoin economy?


Because they are withholding a large sum of fiat from Bitcoiners.
In case they would finally shutdown, all the bitcoins held by them will be migrated quickly to all the other exchanges, however the fiat cannot.
The low supply of fiat and a sudden increase in bitcoin supply will cause the price to drop drastically in the other exchanges.
This will lead to a short-term panic bear market for sure.

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QuantumKiwi
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August 12, 2013, 08:39:41 AM
 #8

Happy to see they die, even if I lose money in the process.

Any particular reason why?

Do you think they have a hold on the bitcoin economy?


Because they are withholding a large sum of fiat from Bitcoiners.
In case they would finally shutdown, all the bitcoins held by them will be migrated quickly to all the other exchanges, however the fiat cannot.
The low supply of fiat and a sudden increase in bitcoin supply will cause the price to drop drastically in the other exchanges.
This will lead to a short-term panic bear market for sure.

Interesting Smiley

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August 12, 2013, 03:35:33 PM
 #9

Because they are withholding a large sum of fiat from Bitcoiners.
In case they would finally shutdown, all the bitcoins held by them will be migrated quickly to all the other exchanges, however the fiat cannot.
The low supply of fiat and a sudden increase in bitcoin supply will cause the price to drop drastically in the other exchanges.

This will lead to a short-term panic bear market for sure.

eh? The above is a description of the current situation, not some future scenario.

Just look at the price, $94 where you can withdraw fiat and $104 at MtGox.

BTC is leaving MtGox, fiat can not and does not. Most smart people left MtGox ages ago.

The situation would actually be very different if MtGox actually shut down, if they just closed their website tomorrow then nothing would leave MtGox.

It is all based on faith.  If everyone lost faith in Gox tomorrow, the price would skyrocket on Gox, while depress prices on other exchanges.
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August 13, 2013, 01:33:15 AM
 #10

    ..
moni3z
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August 13, 2013, 01:37:31 AM
 #11

I doubt it, if anything they get more idiots everyday singing up to use the service. I'm guessing they have fast fiat transfers for their big customers like bitpay and other 6 figure daily traders, then just screw all the little people looking to get out small change because it's too much work for them to push some buttons and send a xfer.
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August 13, 2013, 02:00:37 AM
Last edit: August 13, 2013, 02:54:03 AM by ArticMine
 #12

I doubt it, if anything they get more idiots everyday singing up to use the service. I'm guessing they have fast fiat transfers for their big customers like bitpay and other 6 figure daily traders, then just screw all the little people looking to get out small change because it's too much work for them to push some buttons and send a xfer.

If they allowed the deep pockets to withdraw USD or EUR, CAD, AUD etc in a timely manner we would not have the spread because of arbitrage. Furthermore this would actually help the little guy who has fiat trapped in MTGox since they could purchase BTC, withdraw and sell somewhere else without having to pay a 10-20% penalty. If volume is really the issue then expediting the "deep pockets" will go a long way to solving this problem.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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August 13, 2013, 03:03:41 AM
 #13

I'm guessing they have fast fiat transfers for their big customers like bitpay and other 6 figure daily traders, then

"big customers" like Bitpay, BIPS and "6 figure daily traders" noticed the writing on the wall months ago.

http://blog.bitpay.com/2013/06/important-update-on-bitpay-exchange.html

Bitpay is no longer a MtGox customer and they haven't been for months.

Hmm, indeed it appears bitstamp US volume has skyrocketed eating Gox share (I haven't been paying attention)
However that press release says they won't use gox to "determine the exchange rate" doesn't say they aren't using them at all. They may have gigantic darktrades with Karpeles still.

Anyways this can only be good news if Gox is actually dying
QuantumKiwi
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August 13, 2013, 09:59:40 PM
 #14

I'm guessing they have fast fiat transfers for their big customers like bitpay and other 6 figure daily traders, then

"big customers" like Bitpay, BIPS and "6 figure daily traders" noticed the writing on the wall months ago.

http://blog.bitpay.com/2013/06/important-update-on-bitpay-exchange.html

Bitpay is no longer a MtGox customer and they haven't been for months.

Good to hear, sounds like a lot of people are moving away from Mt Gox, seems they are holding the market far too much.


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August 13, 2013, 10:29:42 PM
 #15


I actually developed a lot more confidence in Mt. Gox when they were notably hassled, and would be happy to see them remain a strong player if they can pull it off.

Just recently I decided to cash out a small fraction of my BTC and decided to bite the bullet and trust them with my identity documentation.  Unfortunately since my drivers license contains a P.O. box in addition to my physical address (common in my rural area where people use the local post office due to mail theft and vandalism) Mt. Gox rejected my verification.

I'm not sure if Mt. Gox overlooked my that my physical address existed accidentally or purposely wish to have excuses for rejecting verification.  In any event if they cannot help me I will have little choice but to take my business elsewhere.

I feel for Mt. Gox and the heaps of trouble foisted upon them by the powers that be, but whatever their actual disposition, the fact that they are under pressure makes it dangerous to keep either fiat or BTC on account with them.  Nothing personal, but one must watch their own asses in this business.

I only submitted documentation last night and got a rejection response in a timely manner which I appreciated.  I've asked them to look again and it is not realistic to bitch about a delay and poor communications yet.  I've seen a lot of complaints about delays from Mt. Gox (and others) and there are only some many weeks in a year so it does not make much sense to defer taking action on looking around for alternatives.  If indeed Mt. Gox is not anxious to verify people and thus allow them to proceed with actual fiat withdraws it is not a good sign.

---

BTW, anyone who wants to buy BTC in the 100-200 range (for now), see my post in currency-exchange section.  I planned to do it person-2-person if I can find a counter-party, but with appropriate escrow it could work to go with a remote transaction of some sort.  I'm in no giant hurry and can accept transaction latency as long as it is theoretically impossible for there to be theft or fraud.


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August 14, 2013, 10:25:02 AM
 #16

I felt like they had their chance, and their fate is a result of their performance.  I think they could've handled the business much better.

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August 14, 2013, 10:58:25 AM
 #17

Because they are withholding a large sum of fiat from Bitcoiners.
In case they would finally shutdown, all the bitcoins held by them will be migrated quickly to all the other exchanges, however the fiat cannot.
The low supply of fiat and a sudden increase in bitcoin supply will cause the price to drop drastically in the other exchanges.
This will lead to a short-term panic bear market for sure.

You can bet on it. The cumulated bids from the order books:

Mt.Gox: 14,433,186 USD
Bitstamp: 1,324,419 USD

GoxUSD/BitstampUSD Ratio: 1:11
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August 14, 2013, 12:36:24 PM
 #18

Is Mt Gox starting to die?

It seems like it, many people are reporting more and more issues with Mt Gox..

It also appears Mt Gox is purchasing other bitcoin related sites in a strange takeover.

Is it time Mt Gox died? Or is some thing new coming?

You're a few months late, but welcome to Bitcoin nevertheless.

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August 14, 2013, 03:07:04 PM
 #19

Because they are withholding a large sum of fiat from Bitcoiners.
In case they would finally shutdown, all the bitcoins held by them will be migrated quickly to all the other exchanges, however the fiat cannot.
The low supply of fiat and a sudden increase in bitcoin supply will cause the price to drop drastically in the other exchanges.
This will lead to a short-term panic bear market for sure.

You can bet on it. The cumulated bids from the order books:

Mt.Gox: 14,433,186 USD
Bitstamp: 1,324,419 USD

GoxUSD/BitstampUSD Ratio: 1:11

I still can't believe you are talking about order books.... look at VOLUME or better said, ACTUAL TRANSACTIONS!
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August 14, 2013, 03:46:29 PM
 #20

I still can't believe you are talking about order books.... look at VOLUME or better said, ACTUAL TRANSACTIONS!

I am aware of both. But the volume changes rapidly while the USD ratio in contrast remains constant. And as long as this is so, nothing changes. Gox had from January to April more volume than Bitstamp throughout its whole lifetime. As long as the ratio does not change and (much) more FIAT is flowing to Bitstamp you'll never see large volumes on Bitstamp. It's amazing how little you and others know about very basic economic effects. The trading volume is just almost irrelevant, except for the fact that it is very low.

What we see at the moment in economics it's called the "network effect". Everyone is waiting for Gox. And as long as that is the case there will be no increase in trading volume.

See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect

And yes, "everyone" is now working with Bitstamp. Bitpay and all the others. The strange thing is that the volume still remains puny. Could it be that there is no real businesses with Bitpay and all the others? How much volume do they have in a month? It must be a subset of the volume of Bitstamp ... oh my god ...

Could it be that Bitcoin is used 90% for speculation?

For sure: 90% of speculative fiat employed is lying on Gox.

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