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朝韩板门店会谈:困局下的相互试探
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Topic: 朝韩板门店会谈:困局下的相互试探 (Read 101 times)
limewaus
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朝韩板门店会谈:困局下的相互试探
January 11, 2018, 09:36:17 AM
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继金正恩在新年贺词中罕见地释放善意之后,当地时间1月9日上午,韩朝代表团在板门店韩方一侧的“和平之家”举行会谈,双方在会谈上就朝鲜参加平昌冬奥会及冬残奥会和改善韩朝关系事宜展开讨论。在半岛局势不断紧张的情况下,此次会谈确实引起了广泛关注。
当然,会谈双方以如此快的速度开始接触、缓和并不只是为了讨论参加冬奥会的事宜,只不过在朝核问题僵持不下之际,以象征和平的奥运会为契机进行接洽,是双方的一个绝好选项。
板门店会谈契合朝韩双方需要
会谈能以如此快的速度展开,自然是因为双方目前都存在潜在的会谈需求。至于会谈的动机,这与双方面临的政治局势有关。
先说朝鲜,随着朝鲜不断进行核试验、导弹试射,联合国对朝制裁也逐步加码。去年联合国最新一轮的制裁决议可谓空前严厉,让本就困难的朝鲜经济更是雪上加霜。在不断地进行武器试验对美威慑却得不到回应之际,适时改善对韩关系以减轻压力,确实也在情理之中。金正恩在此时挑准东北亚各国中最薄弱的一环——韩国进行试探,不但能够便利之后的经济合作,也是当前代价最小的选项。
韩国方面,自文在寅上台以来,一直致力于修复朴槿惠任期内受损的中韩、美韩关系,至今未有太大突破。加上国内不断升高的政治压力,适时通过朝韩关系的缓和来稳定国内局势、打开外交局面也是不错的选项。并且与朝接触产生的政治成果也有助于文在寅获得更多政治资源,巩固国内政治基础的同时进一步明确其对外政策的基调。
此时进行会谈既能缓解双方国内的政治困境,又能进一步试探对方,为之后的政策调整打开空间、探明方向,双方自然一拍即合。
试探之后,这种缓和能持续多久
尽管此次板门店会谈取得了很多成果,但是不得不承认,正如之前多次出现的缓和一样,这次缓和若想持久依然困难重重。即使是在一个月后的冬奥会上上演超越政治的感人画面,这种结果也依然不会有太大变化。
其实个中原因也并不复杂,此次会谈更多是形势性因素推动,双方的政治立场未有明显变化。倒是可能会影响到双方立场的因素十分复杂,朝韩双方不仅要在有限的国际政治空间内寻找有利条件维持这种缓和,还必须有效地整合国内的政治资源来支持自身的对外政策。
而且双方政权必须同时做到这两点,对于长期对峙、互有仇意的双方来讲,不仅要有高超的政治技巧,双方还必须形成高度的默契,不因外部的风吹草动而动摇决心。无论从哪方面来讲,这样的要求都着实过于苛刻了些。而且无论是朝鲜国内封闭的政治体系,还是韩国国内较为极端的政治文化,都是双方保持政策稳定的不利因素。
除了双方对各自国内政治的有效整合能力之外,不得不提的是双方之间的政治互信。这一点对于如今的朝鲜半岛而言尤其珍贵,朝鲜反复的核试验以及美韩之间的军演已经透支了双方的政治互信,若想重建互信谈何容易。互信的重建首先需要双方对于对方的合法性存在达成一致,还需要就和平处理相互关系形成共识,只有在和平的气氛中才能再进行进一步的缓和。
从这个角度上来看,中国的“双暂停”方案倒不失为一剂良方,只是再灵的妙药也需患者配合,否则依然是无用。倘若这次会谈能够开启之后缓和的大门,推动朝鲜半岛长期和平稳定,那么无论如何赞美此次会谈的意义也不为过。只是从之前历次缓和的经验来看,这次缓和能够持续多久仍然是最大的问题。
但就目前的半岛局势来说,比起不断的武器试验和军演来讲,会谈总是有益的。本次会谈以及之后进一步的政治缓和之后,诸多成果将陆续出炉。只是这些成果究竟在多大程度上能够持久缓和双方关系并且推动长远的统一进程,仍然值得观察。
而造成这样的结果,归根结底是因为朝韩双方无论是能力还是当前的意愿,都与实现持久的缓和乃至最终统一相去甚远。朝韩双方的统一进程不但需要宽松的外部环境,还需要民众明确的统一共识、伟大而卓越的政治家,而这些条件目前都不具备。
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