Whats your exit strategy?

[Toxic2040]

I was sitting here...and you know..speculating. Because really thats what I like to do.

Anyway..I was just sitting here watching the price and all of a sudden I wondered what the "price" would have to be for me to part with my coins. This is a deeply personal number for most of us...merely a business decision for others. But all of a sudden a number popped into my head. It would not go away. I tried to banish this foul thing..but alas..I could not. This number would mean substantial fiat wealth for my entire family..I am talking generational wealth. I used to think 8 digits for a family to be considered rich but today I think more like middle 8 digits..  

Now I have mined and hedl coin for what seems like ages now..almost 6 years soon..so the value I have to the current market price is..well..extraordinary to say the least. I am not saying this to boast or brag or any number of things, I say it to tell you that there is no "bottom" to the current market..even pre- December that would cause me to panic sell.

I have watched bitcoin grow from a small community of several thousands thru the MtGox debacle (yes..I was goxd..I opened an account in May of '13), thru the massive price spike that Fall where many bailed but I did not. Thru the lean bear years where there was plenty of opportunity to say fuck it..but I did not..I slowly bought more. Thru this time the community had grown to several hundred thousands of  people.

Now..thru the last year and last month..several hundreds of millions of people have heard and are talking about bitcoin. Two orders of magnitude over the previous metric no?

I say all this because yes..I am extremely bullish..I think use and adoption is going to grow and grow big over the next year. Once a LN becomes reality look out. Solutions are and will be build for bitcoin. I think crypto currencies in general are going to have a profound impact upon global markets over the next decade and I think capturing 5% of those markets(ie broad money) is feasible within the next year or two.

TL;DR  What is your price? Have you picked a number to exit?

I have. I will never sell all my bitcoins..some will be passed on to family. Some will be donated to worthy causes..but when..not if..that day comes..I will happily part with my coin and have zero regrets.


I have included some figures from another thread for context.

Broad money = $80,000,000,000,000 give or take a few trillion.

Bitcoin supply =  16,782,692

So all we have to do is figure out some percentages.

Bitcoin takes over the world!  $80,000,000,000,000/BTC16,782,682

100%=$4,766,818.55736

50%=$2383409.27868

25%=$1191704.63934    < Mcaffee expects 25% market penetration within a year...ummm...ya.

12.5%=$595852.31967

6.25%-$297926.159835

3.125%=$148963.0799175

1.5625%=$74481.53995875

0.78125%=$37240.769979375

0.390625%=$18620.3849896875      <  We are around here. Not even .4%

0.1953125%=$9310.19249484375

0.09765625%=$4655.096247421875

0.048828125%=$2327.548123710938

0.0244140625%=$1163.774061855469

0.01220703125%=$581.8870309277344

0.006103515625%=$290.9435154638672

0.0030517578125%=$145.4717577319336

0.00152587890625%=$72.7358788659668

0.000762939453125%=$36.3679394329834

0.0003814697265625%=$18.1839697164917

1.9073486328125e-4%=$9.09198485824585

9.5367431640625e-5%=$4.545992429122925

4.76837158203125e-5%=$2.272996214561462

What I find of interest is how some of these percentage points closely match some of out ATH's.  Food for thought.

[1714494462]

1714494462

[1714494462]

1714494462

[dothebeats]

I initially planned to exit @ $4000 and told myself to not be involved again. Turns out I was wrong. Exited early @ $2900 only to buy back again at $4400 and told myself again to sell all @ $20000. I was online on Bitfinex when it reached $19k a piece, and back then I was asking myself to offload it all or not. I only traded half of what I totally got and the remaining half I sent to my address. So far, it's one of the best things I've done and I'm continuously tossing the money I got back and forth to help me earn more bitcoins in the process. Initially I thought it was going to pop, but then realized after an extensive reading on the state of fiat currencies, I'm kinda certain that I won't be trading my bitcoin into fiat sooner.

[TERA2]

I dont have a predetermined number. I exit whenever the TA turns around and then re-enter whenever it crashes on high volume.

[Drixy]

I was sitting here...and you know..speculating. Because really thats what I like to do.

Anyway..I was just sitting here watching the price and all of a sudden I wondered what the "price" would have to be for me to part with my coins. This is a deeply personal number for most of us...merely a business decision for others. But all of a sudden a number popped into my head. It would not go away. I tried to banish this foul thing..but alas..I could not. This number would mean substantial fiat wealth for my entire family..I am talking generational wealth. I used to think 8 digits for a family to be considered rich but today I think more like middle 8 digits.. 

Now I have mined and hedl coin for what seems like ages now..almost 6 years soon..so the value I have to the current market price is..well..extraordinary to say the least. I am not saying this to boast or brag or any number of things, I say it to tell you that there is no "bottom" to the current market..even pre- December that would cause me to panic sell.

I have watched bitcoin grow from a small community of several thousands thru the MtGox debacle (yes..I was goxd..I opened an account in May of '13), thru the massive price spike that Fall where many bailed but I did not. Thru the lean bear years where there was plenty of opportunity to say fuck it..but I did not..I slowly bought more. Thru this time the community had grown to several hundred thousands of  people.

Now..thru the last year and last month..several hundreds of millions of people have heard and are talking about bitcoin. Two orders of magnitude over the previous metric no?

I say all this because yes..I am extremely bullish..I think use and adoption is going to grow and grow big over the next year. Once a LN becomes reality look out. Solutions are and will be build for bitcoin. I think crypto currencies in general are going to have a profound impact upon global markets over the next decade and I think capturing 5% of those markets(ie broad money) is feasible within the next year or two.

TL;DR  What is your price? Have you picked a number to exit?

I have. I will never sell all my bitcoins..some will be passed on to family. Some will be donated to worthy causes..but when..not if..that day comes..I will happily part with my coin and have zero regrets.


I have included some figures from another thread for context.

Broad money = $80,000,000,000,000 give or take a few trillion.

Bitcoin supply =  16,782,692

So all we have to do is figure out some percentages.

Bitcoin takes over the world!  $80,000,000,000,000/BTC16,782,682

100%=$4,766,818.55736

50%=$2383409.27868

25%=$1191704.63934    < Mcaffee expects 25% market penetration within a year...ummm...ya.

12.5%=$595852.31967

6.25%-$297926.159835

3.125%=$148963.0799175

1.5625%=$74481.53995875

0.78125%=$37240.769979375

0.390625%=$18620.3849896875      <  We are around here. Not even .4%

0.1953125%=$9310.19249484375

0.09765625%=$4655.096247421875

0.048828125%=$2327.548123710938

0.0244140625%=$1163.774061855469

0.01220703125%=$581.8870309277344

0.006103515625%=$290.9435154638672

0.0030517578125%=$145.4717577319336

0.00152587890625%=$72.7358788659668

0.000762939453125%=$36.3679394329834

0.0003814697265625%=$18.1839697164917

1.9073486328125e-4%=$9.09198485824585

9.5367431640625e-5%=$4.545992429122925

4.76837158203125e-5%=$2.272996214561462

What I find of interest is how some of these percentage points closely match some of out ATH's.  Food for thought.

Damn that numbers though. Dont expect that much man it is still not determined if Bitcoin will last until our next generations such as our grandchildren. Even though Bitcoin will last for about millions of it on supplies we dont also know if Our country will accept Bitcoin Full time.

My target is enough to make me stop. I have goals and thats enough for me although my standards are high.

[pooya87]

i never exit because i find it a dumb move.
i never not exit because that is also a dumb move.
there is a lot of options in between!

you buy bitcoin when it is low and has not yet risen. lets say back in 2015 when price is stable like today with <10% fluctuations @$220.
you buy $1000 worth of bitcoin which is 4.54BTC. now price goes up in the next rally to $502 (2015-11-5) which gives you the vibes of a correction. you sell your bitcoin for $2,279 and wait for the correction to end (basically the idiots to get flushed out) then you take your $1000 and make your exit and then buy back what you sold. 3.87BTC @$330 with the $1,279 pure profit and $1000 cash in your pocket (exit).

rinse and repeat, change things around such as keeping profit in bitcoin not in fiat (6.90BTC instead).

[Deeyoh]

Hmmmm, I'm thinking probably a heart attack will be my exit strategy. LOL

[hatshepsut93]

TL;DR  What is your price? Have you picked a number to exit?

I have. I will never sell all my bitcoins..some will be passed on to family. Some will be donated to worthy causes..but when..not if..that day comes..I will happily part with my coin and have zero regrets.

In trading/investing you are supposed to never get emotionally attached to your positions. So, rationally, we should be ready to sell Bitcoin if the situation will look grim for it - maybe competitors will get a better tech at some point (contrary to a popular believe, todays altcoins are nowhere near close to having better tech), or maybe it will get globally outlawed (which won't kill it, but will significantly cripple).
But if everything will be alright, then maybe long-term hodlers won't have to sell, because they will be able to spend it easily instead. After all, Bitcoin is a currency, not a stock or a commodity (inb4 high fees blah-blah).

So, I will try to never exit fully and always have some coins as my savings, but as for partial exits, I'll probably trade some coins for real estate in a very distant future, when I'll feel like the market is very saturated and big bull runs are very unlikely.

[uslfd]

The percentage as total money supply analysis isn't totally correct.
The price of bitcoin is determined by the marginal price that the market is willing to bid a coin for.
Also, total world money supply is a flow concept not a stock concept because fiat system is signified by its money creation process facilitated by interest rate.

[aso118]

Rather than have a price at which to exit, I think about the time frame around which I would exit. It is more like a systematic disinvestment plan. Sell out your coins over the next 30 years. The advantage of this is if the market does turn bad, you would still have cashed out during the good years.
For those who have invested over the years, investing now will not make sense.

[NUFCrichard]

I have already sold a good percentage of my Bitcoins and now I am just waiting longer term to see what happens.
I was lucky that I bought in 2014/2015 so could sell my Bitcoin tax free this year, I have taken a pretty good profit out of it already but want to stay in the game in case it moves up more and more as some think it will.

I don't want to fully exit, I'd be too worried that the price would be $100,000 in a few years, and i sold at $15k...

[Matj]

Exiting does not make sense to me. I don't see the point in exiting, ever. That whole mindset is for people who don't really believe in Bitcoin's potential, or just don't understand it. In the future, fiat money will cease to exist. If national currencies still exist in some form, their value will be based on Bitcoin. This is serious stuff.

[bitcoinisbest]

Exiting does not make sense to me. I don't see the point in exiting, ever. That whole mindset is for people who don't really believe in Bitcoin's potential, or just don't understand it. In the future, fiat money will cease to exist. If national currencies still exist in some form, their value will be based on Bitcoin. This is serious stuff.

Yes total exit among all cypto currency will not make sense in this age. Unless you exit for some personal reason due to money requirement it is fine else it will be a loss of opportunity for them in order to make more money than another way they could have made it elsewhere.

[Toxic2040]

I initially planned to exit @ $4000 and told myself to not be involved again. Turns out I was wrong. Exited early @ $2900 only to buy back again at $4400 and told myself again to sell all @ $20000. I was online on Bitfinex when it reached $19k a piece, and back then I was asking myself to offload it all or not. I only traded half of what I totally got and the remaining half I sent to my address. So far, it's one of the best things I've done and I'm continuously tossing the money I got back and forth to help me earn more bitcoins in the process. Initially I thought it was going to pop, but then realized after an extensive reading on the state of fiat currencies, I'm kinda certain that I won't be trading my bitcoin into fiat sooner.

I have felt that way many times over the years..first time I sold was at the height of '13. I had decided then that I would cost average my hoard over time.

I dont have a predetermined number. I exit whenever the TA turns around and then re-enter whenever it crashes on high volume.

Pro beara Tera  s/

My target is enough to make me stop. I have goals and thats enough for me although my standards are high.

Hodl!

i never exit because i find it a dumb move.
i never not exit because that is also a dumb move.
there is a lot of options in between!

you buy bitcoin when it is low and has not yet risen. lets say back in 2015 when price is stable like today with <10% fluctuations @$220.
you buy $1000 worth of bitcoin which is 4.54BTC. now price goes up in the next rally to $502 (2015-11-5) which gives you the vibes of a correction. you sell your bitcoin for $2,279 and wait for the correction to end (basically the idiots to get flushed out) then you take your $1000 and make your exit and then buy back what you sold. 3.87BTC @$330 with the $1,279 pure profit and $1000 cash in your pocket (exit).

rinse and repeat, change things around such as keeping profit in bitcoin not in fiat (6.90BTC instead).

Pro Pooya

Buy high sell low? what??  /s

Hmmmm, I'm thinking probably a heart attack will be my exit strategy. LOL

Heh..could be worse ways right?  

In trading/investing you are supposed to never get emotionally attached to your positions. So, rationally, we should be ready to sell Bitcoin if the situation will look grim for it - maybe competitors will get a better tech at some point (contrary to a popular believe, todays altcoins are nowhere near close to having better tech), or maybe it will get globally outlawed (which won't kill it, but will significantly cripple).
But if everything will be alright, then maybe long-term hodlers won't have to sell, because they will be able to spend it easily instead. After all, Bitcoin is a currency, not a stock or a commodity (inb4 high fees blah-blah).

So, I will try to never exit fully and always have some coins as my savings, but as for partial exits, I'll probably trade some coins for real estate in a very distant future, when I'll feel like the market is very saturated and big bull runs are very unlikely.

Nice...Belize is quite nice I hear...

The percentage as total money supply analysis isn't totally correct.
The price of bitcoin is determined by the marginal price that the market is willing to bid a coin for.
Also, total world money supply is a flow concept not a stock concept because fiat system is signified by its money creation process facilitated by interest rate.

By far the nicest way anyone has ever told me I was wrong. 

Yes..supply and demand. Metcalfe's law. I am somewhat familiar with these concepts. I think Bitcoin will grow into some of these things. Once some more of the "features" are ironed out for mass adoption. People will need payday loans still..or SB loans..or what ever... that happens today..but it will happen tomorrow on a larger scale I believe and then you will start to see some of those "flow concepts" like velocity and things that will give useful metrics.

[orions.belt19]

I haven't determined a definite number or exit price however if the bitcoin price drops to more than 50%, I have decided not to invest in bitcoin anymore from there. It's hard to determine what price would be appropriate since bitcoin still has plenty of potential to grow, the only question is until when. Also, I would choose to exit when I feel like the conditions or environment has deemed for bitcoin to crash. Personally, I've felt like I've already gained profits from bitcoin and have benefited so I won't really feel like I've lost when the occasion arises.

[buwaytress]

Was it last month or late November 2017? This forum started filling with threads of people doing exactly that: exit. I think most will have held Bitcoin for more than 3 years. Relatively short, but if you imagine that for at least two years people kept Bitcoins never knowing if it would ever breach $1,000 again...

I guess I'm more like you - I don't have an exit strategy... yet. As it stands, I already cash out whatever I need for expenses, sending money home to the old folks, putting aside some for fiat savings, but keeping as much as possible as Bitcoin (now diversified into about 15% alts). What I have promised myself is to examine these holdings at 2020. I will have reached middle age by then, if Bitcoin is doing well, I hope to have enough to start planning my retirement.

Once that value is removed, the rest will be passed on when I check out of this life. I never gave it a price exist strategy, though I daresay the $1 million mark would be tempting. It's more than enough for my family to live comfortable for decades.

[talkbitcoin]

i don't exactly have a strategy for any exits. i try to reach a balance.
i have invested in buying bitcoin and also earned bitcoin and each month or so specially after a big rise i make a decision to sell some part of it. but i sell as much as it can give me a decent amount of money but also i still have a big amount of bitcoin left.

for example i usually do a 10% sell of my monthly profits. for example if i earned X and made some profit through trading and other things (Y) then i sell 10% of X+Y and keep the rest in cold storage.

[YuginKadoya]

i never exit because i find it a dumb move.
i never not exit because that is also a dumb move.
there is a lot of options in between!

you buy bitcoin when it is low and has not yet risen. lets say back in 2015 when price is stable like today with <10% fluctuations @$220.
you buy $1000 worth of bitcoin which is 4.54BTC. now price goes up in the next rally to $502 (2015-11-5) which gives you the vibes of a correction. you sell your bitcoin for $2,279 and wait for the correction to end (basically the idiots to get flushed out) then you take your $1000 and make your exit and then buy back what you sold. 3.87BTC @$330 with the $1,279 pure profit and $1000 cash in your pocket (exit).

rinse and repeat, change things around such as keeping profit in bitcoin not in fiat (6.90BTC instead).

Yup! I have never exited my bitcoin too, It is always good to hold on to your bitcoins, But when I had a chance in converting it to fiat when the value is down like when the price pump up to the $18,000 USD I had converted my bitcoin to fiat then when the price went down suddenly to $14,000 value I then buy bitcoin so I can accumulate bitcoin by doing so, But yes this is very unpredictable and I was just lucky in doing this,

And for OP I really think there isn't an exit strategy you just need to trust in bitcoin and read the movements thoroughly if the price could end up dipping.

[Zadicar]

i don't exactly have a strategy for any exits. i try to reach a balance.
i have invested in buying bitcoin and also earned bitcoin and each month or so specially after a big rise i make a decision to sell some part of it. but i sell as much as it can give me a decent amount of money but also i still have a big amount of bitcoin left.

for example i usually do a 10% sell of my monthly profits. for example if i earned X and made some profit through trading and other things (Y) then i sell 10% of X+Y and keep the rest in cold storage.

We do have the same strategy which is actually effective for me because even though I have sell out some percentage but not totally going all.I do always think off on having bigger bag of bitcoin storage anytime and sell out partial then buyback into other alts or on bitcoin price dip itself. Rinse and repeat and I'm doing this ever since which the results isn't really bad either.

[nydiacaskey01]

I don't see my self a day without thinking of Bitcoin. I may lay low a bit when I hit my target but definitely I will not stop in collecting Bitcoins and holding them. Slowly I will convert to fiat, since we need fiat to live in this world but I'll keep an amount of Bitcoin to hold and convert in the future.

[harizen]

~snipped~

Kinda long statement hmm. I suggest to just sit back and relax if your concern is only on BTCitcoin. Goal for long term indeed.

Exit strategy depends on how you play the game. "Exit" doesn't mean you will dump a certain coin to the fullest but just taking advantage of the crash or dip then after some correction you will enter again. But if we are talking about bitcoin, it's not wise to make an exit just to take profits but instead take advantage whenever there is a price crash by buying more quantities of it.

We have different analyzations and consideration on how we execute our moves. Try to find out "what is the best thing to do" and see if it's really worth a shot.