RationalSpeculator
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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August 16, 2013, 11:18:38 AM
Last edit: August 16, 2013, 11:32:04 AM by RationalSpeculator |
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A mistrustful part of me suspects that MtGox is making huge profits arbitraging the price difference themselves, which gives them a perverse motivation to keep withdrawals slow.
Unfortunately I have a feeling you might be spot on with that theory... It all doesn't matter really. Fact is that gox has serious banking problems as indeed the price difference proves that arbitraging isn't done decently, even not by themselves or their friends. They may have a lot of capital reserves, they will still have to close shop if they continue to be unable to find a banking partner. Since banking partners have good reason to avoid gox since they are now targeted by homeland security and have US bank accounts frozen, I don't think the banking problem will be resolved soon. It's too late for gox to now simply reject US customers as this won't change their accounts being frozen in the US and them being chased by Homeland Security. And as long as this is the case they will have a hard time finding a banking partner. It looks to me Mtgox is now forced to get a US license so that it's accounts are unfrozen. As long as they don't do that banks will avoid them I think. Mtgox will have to get a license in all 52 US states though, as authorities will look for any reason to keep the accounts frozen, so I would think that can take years and will cost millions. As usual it's just a shakedown. However, in the meantime customers will get frustrated more and more. Unless your withdrawals are being processed for some mystical reason, I think it's smart to not do the arbitrage as chances are high the 10% you think you make will end up costing you 10% when you finally give up on mtgox and have to get your fiat out for 20% premium over bitstamp. Could even end up being a lot more if you are susceptible to panicking with the herd. |
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johnyj
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Beyond Imagination
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August 16, 2013, 01:15:49 PM |
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If each country have 6-10 large bitcoin dealers advertising their buy/sell order on localbitcoins.com, each of them have an order depth of 1000 coins, then people could move away from traditional exchanges and be independant of international bank transfers
It's very easy to setup a buy order ladder since everyone have fiat money, but it is more difficult to build up a sell order ladder since that will require huge amount of coins
Unless supply = demand in each and every country, international transfers will still need to happen. The localbitcoins.com could use an automated market making system to adjust the bid and ask price for the largest 6-10 dealers' order For example, if the demand for bitcoin is too high (Too much coins were bought from those dealers in a short time frame), they will automatically raise the bid/ask price for those large dealers, thus reduce the demand for coins. If the sell pressure is too high, they will lower the bid and ask price for those large dealers, thus increase the buying support. How much to raise or lower is the question here, it should provide low slippage but still enough flexibility Sure, but if prices get out of whack people will start importing bitcoins from other countries and exporting their fiat to keep prices in sync. Doing this in a decentralized nature will still likely be way easier than a handful of major institutions attempting to move millions of dollars in 4-5 figure increments. The market making mechanism is to build a reserve and deal with short term supply and demand volatility, for long term change in supply and demand, those delay at banking will not affect dealer too much |
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im3w1l
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August 16, 2013, 09:57:33 PM |
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So happy I paid the 5$ dollar premium to get out now...
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DobZombie
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August 17, 2013, 06:21:00 AM |
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This is MTGOX's financial innovation: The withdraw time is so long that people are all forced to do long term investment in bitcoin, and the price will rise long term wise, this protect the exchange rate  If it takes several months to withdraw your dollars from NASDAQ, you would just buy some stock and hold them for years before you withdraw Don't blame gox for USD withdrawal time. Blame your retarded government. I withdraw AUD from gox and it takes 1 business day! |
Tip Me if believe BTC1 will hit $1 Million by 2030
1DobZomBiE2gngvy6zDFKY5b76yvDbqRra
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Zaih
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August 17, 2013, 06:46:29 AM |
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This is MTGOX's financial innovation: The withdraw time is so long that people are all forced to do long term investment in bitcoin, and the price will rise long term wise, this protect the exchange rate If it takes several months to withdraw your dollars from NASDAQ, you would just buy some stock and hold them for years before you withdraw Don't blame gox for USD withdrawal time. Blame your retarded government. I withdraw AUD from gox and it takes 1 business day! Why aren't you making insane amounts of money yet then  Edit: ... Or are you |
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notme
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Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
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August 17, 2013, 07:22:58 AM |
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The market making mechanism is to build a reserve and deal with short term supply and demand volatility, for long term change in supply and demand, those delay at banking will not affect dealer too much
I'm not talking about supply/demand volatility. I'm talking about supply/demand imbalance within a particular country. Some countries will be net importers of Bitcoin. Some countries will be exporters. Fiat (or some commodity money or good I suppose) will have to be used to settle up the difference. |
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joesmoe2012
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August 17, 2013, 10:42:55 AM |
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This is MTGOX's financial innovation: The withdraw time is so long that people are all forced to do long term investment in bitcoin, and the price will rise long term wise, this protect the exchange rate If it takes several months to withdraw your dollars from NASDAQ, you would just buy some stock and hold them for years before you withdraw Don't blame gox for USD withdrawal time. Blame your retarded government. I withdraw AUD from gox and it takes 1 business day! When? I think this is simply not true. They would be sending AUD via SWIFT correct? I have EUR and PLN waiting to be withdrawn for weeks as well. |
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BitcoinNerd
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Activity: 29
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August 17, 2013, 12:11:45 PM |
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This is MTGOX's financial innovation: The withdraw time is so long that people are all forced to do long term investment in bitcoin, and the price will rise long term wise, this protect the exchange rate If it takes several months to withdraw your dollars from NASDAQ, you would just buy some stock and hold them for years before you withdraw Don't blame gox for USD withdrawal time. Blame your retarded government. I withdraw AUD from gox and it takes 1 business day! When? I think this is simply not true. They would be sending AUD via SWIFT correct? I have EUR and PLN waiting to be withdrawn for weeks as well. Swift? I'm not sure... Last time I withdrew money, I needed for a power bill on a monday/Tuesday night. On the Thursday it was there! I was like HOLY SHIT. True story  |
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phoenix1
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August 17, 2013, 12:21:30 PM |
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This is MTGOX's financial innovation: The withdraw time is so long that people are all forced to do long term investment in bitcoin, and the price will rise long term wise, this protect the exchange rate If it takes several months to withdraw your dollars from NASDAQ, you would just buy some stock and hold them for years before you withdraw Don't blame gox for USD withdrawal time. Blame your retarded government. I withdraw AUD from gox and it takes 1 business day! When was this ? Since July ? |
"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves" - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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BitcoinNerd
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Activity: 29
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August 17, 2013, 12:48:03 PM |
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This is MTGOX's financial innovation: The withdraw time is so long that people are all forced to do long term investment in bitcoin, and the price will rise long term wise, this protect the exchange rate If it takes several months to withdraw your dollars from NASDAQ, you would just buy some stock and hold them for years before you withdraw Don't blame gox for USD withdrawal time. Blame your retarded government. I withdraw AUD from gox and it takes 1 business day! When was this ? Since July ? June or July. |
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phoenix1
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August 17, 2013, 01:03:52 PM |
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This is MTGOX's financial innovation: The withdraw time is so long that people are all forced to do long term investment in bitcoin, and the price will rise long term wise, this protect the exchange rate If it takes several months to withdraw your dollars from NASDAQ, you would just buy some stock and hold them for years before you withdraw Don't blame gox for USD withdrawal time. Blame your retarded government. I withdraw AUD from gox and it takes 1 business day! When was this ? Since July ? June or July. Exact date would be informative, as the problems started in July (not that there were no issues before lol) Have you tried again recently ? Would be very interesting to know if it worked again now |
"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves" - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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niko
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August 17, 2013, 02:18:23 PM
Last edit: August 18, 2013, 04:19:05 AM by niko |
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The market making mechanism is to build a reserve and deal with short term supply and demand volatility, for long term change in supply and demand, those delay at banking will not affect dealer too much
I'm not talking about supply/demand volatility. I'm talking about supply/demand imbalance within a particular country. Some countries will be net importers of Bitcoin. Some countries will be exporters. Fiat (or some commodity money or good I suppose) will have to be used to settle up the difference. This. Traditional banking and exchange channels would still be required. The only way to put them to rest and let bitcoin be all it can be is to nurture and grow bitcoin economy, where coins are directly used for goods, services, and salaries. A global currency. |
They're there, in their room.
Your mining rig is on fire, yet you're very calm.
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joesmoe2012
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August 17, 2013, 03:20:06 PM |
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This is MTGOX's financial innovation: The withdraw time is so long that people are all forced to do long term investment in bitcoin, and the price will rise long term wise, this protect the exchange rate If it takes several months to withdraw your dollars from NASDAQ, you would just buy some stock and hold them for years before you withdraw Don't blame gox for USD withdrawal time. Blame your retarded government. I withdraw AUD from gox and it takes 1 business day! When? I think this is simply not true. They would be sending AUD via SWIFT correct? I have EUR and PLN waiting to be withdrawn for weeks as well. Swift? I'm not sure... Last time I withdrew money, I needed for a power bill on a monday/Tuesday night. On the Thursday it was there! I was like HOLY SHIT. True story Where was the transfer from? An AUS bank? Or an international wire transfer from Mizou bank in Japan....? |
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calian
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August 19, 2013, 08:20:56 AM |
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BTC skyrocketing because people want their fiat. Strange times.
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joesmoe2012
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August 19, 2013, 11:40:56 AM |
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BTC skyrocketing because people want their fiat. Strange times.
only from gox, people still buying BTC on btc-e and bitstamp. |
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Nagle
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August 20, 2013, 06:03:43 PM |
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Is there a good online chart of the arbitrage spread?
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N12
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August 20, 2013, 06:39:28 PM |
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Is there a good online chart of the arbitrage spread?
First, you have to tell us what the endgame is. We need to know. |
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genuise
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August 20, 2013, 08:21:12 PM |
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silversurfer
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August 20, 2013, 08:55:54 PM |
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There would not be a 20% spread because a few people are afraid.
There would be a 20% (and growing) spread if insiders recognized a critical problem at mtgox and are getting their money the fuck out.
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That which is falling should also be pushed.
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Odalv
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August 20, 2013, 09:08:02 PM |
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There would not be a 20% spread because a few people are afraid.
There would be a 20% (and growing) spread if insiders recognized a critical problem at mtgox and are getting their money the fuck out.
Hmm maybe as an insider, he can fly to Japan and create an bank account there rather than lose 20% |
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