"High" risk investment - 1:3 dice bot service

[JohnDorien]

Hi,

I offer to run a martingale Dice Bot (first bet always 0.02 then increasing if lose), winning percentage 1:3.
I made 300% in the last 3 days out of it, highest bet placed was 2.56btc, but could have been luck also...

The more we are, the more bitcoins are available, the more bets can the bot place.

By being interested in this you notice there is absolutely no guarantee at all for winnings!

Timeframe after 48hour of collecting is 7 days for the Bot to run, winnings will be 25% on me and the rest equally in percentage on what you put into the pot (Also if there are no winnings, what is left will be shared this way!). I will post exact start+ end time of bot running here.

Collecting time ends 08/16/2013 18pm CEST

To prove i do not scam anything and stuff i will create a completely new wallet for this and send the full transaction list and final payout calculations (if balance left) via pm to everyone who participated.

Q: Why don't i do this on my own?
A: It is up to you! The sense of this is to be able to catch a possible long row of losses with possible more-than-even-winnings due to lots of available balance (Its 1:3 bets not the usual botted 1:2)

Q: Why should I trust you?
A: Do or don't, it is up to you! But I am not on this forums to scam anyone

Q: Escrow possible?
A: If you can explain how the bot should gamble with your coins while they are in escrow...

Please do not spam here, post or pm if you are willing to participate..
Everyone will get his own address for the investment to have it all clear in the transaction list at the end.

Would be cool if we could collect 20btc+ for the start, at 100+ we should think of raising the starting bet for possible higher profit (or even losses unfortunately).

If the total amount at the end of collecting time is below 10btc i will not start this and you will be paid back what you invested (minus transaction fee)

I do not guarantee any winnings, it is all about bets! Be sure you can lose all if you invest here, so do not spend your money you need for living in this! I only offer the service of running the bot, nothing else!

[FreedomCoin]

I could possibly spare a btc to risk.

[JohnDorien]

I could possibly spare a btc to risk.

Welcome aboard. More investors needed to start this glory run

[JohnDorien]

Only few hours to go! Jump on in

8 Btc to go for the starting pot

In so far:
1 by FreedomCoin
1 by me

[g83]

what sequence do you run and on which dicegame you play ?

you use a simple martingale, starting with 0.02

[b!z]

Gambling as an investment... wow. I am amazed.

[01BTC10]

EV- Gambling as an investment... wow. I am amazed.

FYP

[zeded]

martingale doesn't work. if its random then you can lose 8 times in a row.
for example lets say you are are at 0.3 bet and then you bet 0.6 then 1.2 then 2.4 then 4.8 then 9.6 then 19.2 then 38.4 then 76.8 then 153.6  and then you win once. you just lost 306.9 but won 153.6 once. that means you have just lost 153.3 bit coins. thats about $16,000.
trust me. martingale system doesn't work.
there is a system that works but you can't use a bot.

[g83]

There is a system that works? Every system works... until it fails

[FooFan]

Would there be anyway to watch it?

How many times can you bet? For example, you can easily lose 30 times in a row ...

assuming your backroll is 1000btc and you start at .1btc per bet ..

Bet   1   0.1
Bet   2   0.2
Bet   3   0.4
Bet   4   0.8
Bet   5   1.6
Bet   6   3.2
Bet   7   6.4
Bet   8   12.8
Bet   9   25.6
Bet   10   51.2
Bet   11   102.4
Bet   12   204.8
Bet   13   409.6
Bet   14   409.7

Total Spent - 1228.8 btc

All you need to do is lose 14 times in row and you are broke. This has happens more times than I can count.

Unless there's something I'm missing .. stay away from this folks.

[gacr]

gambling cant be an investment from what i know

[Rampion]

FYI (dooglus is the operator of Just-Dice.com):

Lots of people use martingale betting on the site.  They start by betting a very small amount relative to the bankroll they have available, and double their bet until they win.  So long as they win one roll before the doubling gets out of hand, they are guaranteed a small profit.  This happens over and over, with the player taking a small profit from the site very reliably, and the siite profits gradually go down.  This is balanced by players not using martingale betting, who gradually lose due to the house edge.

Eventually the martingale players hit 10 or 15 or whatever losses in a row, and lose their entire bankroll.  This shows up as a vertical jump in the profit chart.

Apparently this style of betting is particularly common when people play with Bitcoin, and I'm not sure why.

Here's a typical profit/loss chart of a single martingale player.  Thousands of small wins followed by a catastrophic loss that wipes out all previous wins:



Add a whole bunch of similar looking charts together and you get something like the site profit chart...

end line: if you play long enough, you will always lose. Thus, is retarded.

[01BTC10]

gambling cant be an investment from what i know

What do you think Casino owner do? They gamble all day long with odds in their favour. Some skilled poker players do the same.

But no there is no "system" that work against the house edge.
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

“No one can possibly win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn’t looking.” — Albert Einstein

[bitcoin44me]

If you play long enough, you will always lose everything. But if you set up a goal, and you stop when you win it, you can win xx btc with a high percentage of chance

[Rampion]

If you play long enough, you will always lose everything. But if you set up a goal, and you stop when you win it, you can win xx btc with a high percentage of chance

The point is that the quantity of btc you might win is orders of magnitude lower than the quantity of btc you might lose.

Its just retarded.

[StreakfortheBTC]

First...your starting bet is insanely too high. Try like .0005 or less.

Second, this is lol. You can just as easily lose the first 15 rolls.

If you are looking for a gamble, join my streak for the cash pools. You are entering a winner take all pool, and not a ton of people entered but nice size jackpots.

[bitcoin44me]

The point is that the quantity of btc you might win is orders of magnitude lower than the quantity of btc you might lose.

Its just retarded.

No...
Investing 1 btc to win 0.5 btc with a 70 % chance is not retarded.

Expected Value = 0.7 x 0.5 + 0.3 x (-1) = + 0.05


And with a correct martingale, and a good money management you can even optimize the probably and equity to win.

[StreakfortheBTC]

Starting bet, .02. Doubling bets after each loss, if you hit 8 losses you can't make the ninth bet in full.

8-9 losses in a row at 50/50 is super common. You obviously haven't played dice very long. You better start way lower that you are with a 10btc bankroll....and by the way, still gonna go broke.

[Rampion]

The point is that the quantity of btc you might win is orders of magnitude lower than the quantity of btc you might lose.

Its just retarded.

No...
Investing 1 btc to win 0.5 btc with a 70 % chance is not retarded.

Expected Value = 0.7 x 0.5 + 0.3 x (-1) = + 0.05


And with a correct martingale, and a good money management you can even optimize the probably and equity to win.

Nonsense. You do not haven 70% chance of winning 0.5btc by risking 1btc using Martingale. If that BS was true, all Casinos in the world would be broke.

Let's say OP wants to win 0.02btc playing Martingale.

He only has 10.22btc, so he HAS to stop at the 9th loss in a row.

Losing 9 time in a row is pretty common stuff (I'd say a serious Martingale player should be ready to go to +15 bets). If OP is ready to double his bets every time he loses for 9 times, he is risking 10.22btc to win 0.02btc. Yes, he will win most of the times - but when he loses that loss (10.22btc) is stupidly huge compared to the potential win (0.02btc).

Last but not least, the point is that if he plays long enough, he will always lose.

-EV games (gambling) are pure and simply retarded.