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韩国比特币市场投机现象严重 比特币价格较美国高出近一半
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韩国比特币市场投机现象严重 比特币价格较美国高出近一半
January 12, 2018, 10:26:26 AM
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韩国人对比特币有着极大的迷恋,这种,疯狂的迷恋甚至远远超过中国投机者的想象。
当比特币刚开始流行的似乎,这个国家爆发的热情就超过了正常合理的水平,当地的比特币交易平台Bithumb在Coinmarketcap.com上交易量排名世界第二。大部分韩国人都在囤积比特币,这种超乎想象的风潮已经导致韩国总理最近发出警告说,比特币可能会摧毁社会上的年轻人。
关于为何韩国会有令人震惊的激情的原因,并没有明确的解释,但一些观察人士指出,韩国原本就是曾经吹嘘为拥有世界上最活跃的股票指数衍生品市场的国家,这个国家长期以来一直喜欢超负荷高风险的投机活动。
这种极端疯狂的情绪自然也带来极端疯狂的行情——韩国的比特币价格比美国高出43%。注意,该价格无关于汇率差别,就是字面上的意义,同样的比特币,韩国比美国高出接近一半。
韩国比特币市场投机现象严重 比特币价格较美国高出近一半
在当今的金融市场,作为一个电子交易的商品,这是绝对难以想象的情况——依托网络存在的电子货币在不同环境下的价值是不可能有实际区别,何况也没有传统大宗商品的转移成本。
理论上来说,如此极端的行情必然会引入套利者蜂拥而至——在美国买入比特币,在韩国卖出,轻松赚取超过40%且不承担任何风险。
但事实上,韩国的外汇管制问题和反洗钱规定让套利无法进行。
韩国比特币市场投机现象严重 比特币价格较美国高出近一半
韩国的外汇管理规定,当地居民和在一年内向国外转移超过5万美元的公司,必须向当局提交证明转移原因的文件,这些文件可能并不被批准。年度交易总额超过1万美元必须向税务机关报告。
BitSpread集团的首席执行官Cedric Jeanson认为韩元是受限制的货币,所以不能轻松交换。
反洗钱的调查也是套利交易者的噩梦,一旦在交易比特币的过程中外汇交易量过大被当局盯上,套利获利甚至无法正常汇出国外。
交易者无法套利对于市场来说并不是一件好事。通常来说,活跃的套利交易商可以抹平不合理的商品的定价,让市场变得更加有效和均衡。更糟糕的是,当地的数字货币交易所不允许卖空,这使得市场更加难以回复到合理水平。
韩国比特币市场投机现象严重 比特币价格较美国高出近一半
回归到韩国疯狂的比特币市场。在如此高溢价情况下市场依然火热只代表了一件事——没有人在投资,所有人都在投机,更合适的来说,所有人都在赌博。赌徒是不会考虑标的的合理性,对于他们来说,比特币就和赌桌上的筛子或者纸牌一样毫无实际意义和价值,需要的只是顺着火热市场交易投掷下筹码期望一夜爆发的神话发生。
这种心态完美的解释了疯狂的溢价的存在,即使溢价100%,只要明天可以继续上涨,对于赌徒来说不存在任何区别。
无论比特币是未来之星或者世纪骗局,只有一件事是可以确定的——比特币这种高波动,溢价,过热的品种已经完全不适合普通人投资。
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