Bitcoin, the big short is already here and it could get far worse

[bbc.reporter]

Was the all time high of $20,000 the end? I do not mean the real end but the end of bitcoin's 3 year bull run. If it is then I have 2 questions.

How long do you reckon will the bear market last.

What altcoins should we hold that has a high chance of success in gaining more market share against bitcoin?



While some retail investors are taking out mortgages to buy Bitcoin many institutional market participants are stacking up massive bets against the digital asset.

Traditionally this trading dynamic doesn't work out so well for the little guys.

Bitcoin's crashing market share, and its continued functionality issues are adding to the uncertainty regarding short-term price action.

Governments' continued crackdown on Bitcoin and its ecosystem are causing anxiety in the digital asset world and pose a risk of inducing a price collapse.

Although I am constructive on Bitcoin long-term, mounting fundamental factors, coupled with a troubling technical setup are likely to put pressure on prices in the short term.

Read the article in full https://seekingalpha.com/article/4137094-bitcoin-big-short-already-get-far-worse

[TERA2]

Well first off I dont think you short ever. There is too much risk with liqudiity and loans and bitcoin exchanges that you could get stuck holding a short with an infinite loss to your broker. Also bear markets are prime times for bitcoin exchanges (where you are shorting) to get hacked or dissapear. All of this to make at the very most a 50-99% gain, when you could be trading something else like stocks for bigger faster gains and less risk.

The next crypto winter could end up being very long. The first crypto winter lasted under a year. The second one lasted 2 years. So maybe the third one will last 4 years or longer. However, the loss not might be as great or fast either. Whereas the first crypto winter was a 95% loss, and the second one was a 85% loss, the third one might only be a 75% loss ($5K)

Altcoins are going to take even bigger of a hit than bitcoin. Whereas bitcoin has risen 10,000%, lots of altcoins have risen nearly 100,000% and have much further to deflate. I expect Ethereum to act like litecoin in 2014 which lost 98% of its value. Last time I checked, most Etherum was held by about 20 wallets. And I hope ripple goes back to whatever hole it crawled out of. All this altcoin money, of which bitcoin is only 30% of now, might help to keep bitcoin afloat once people flee alts. If you are going to hold a coin the best one (the one with the least losses) is probably going to be bitcoin, unless you can find a really good rare alt with future developments ahead of it and no pump yet. I havent really done any research on it yet.

[fabiorem]

To be a "big short", bitcoin should have few people interested on it.

On the contrary, the demand is growing higher, specially on asian countries. In South Korea it is 17k dollars each.

Its not the same case with real estate, which nobody can buy because it is expensive, and cant be bought in fractions.

Also, the cheap altcoins are bought through bitcoins, so even if people dont want it, and prefer a cheap altcoin, they still need to go through bitcoins.

[pooya87]

Was the all time high of $20,000 the end? I do not mean the real end but the end of bitcoin's 3 year bull run. If it is then I have 2 questions.

How long do you reckon will the bear market last.

What altcoins should we hold that has a high chance of success in gaining more market share against bitcoin?

- i still am not convinced this is the end of the bull run. i even say it may be the start of a new dawn of bull runs.

- in any case if it were the end of it, the bear market can last at least a year.

- that is the problem with altcoins, there is a lot of them and none of them stand out! which one are you going to choose? if you say ... i will give you at least 50 others that outperform it each time in short term. there are obviously a couple on top due to their HUGE supply but the performance-wise there are a lot of them that give a much better profit.

[YuginKadoya]

Was the all time high of $20,000 the end? I do not mean the real end but the end of bitcoin's 3 year bull run. If it is then I have 2 questions.

How long do you reckon will the bear market last.

What altcoins should we hold that has a high chance of success in gaining more market share against bitcoin?

- i still am not convinced this is the end of the bull run. i even say it may be the start of a new dawn of bull runs.

- in any case if it were the end of it, the bear market can last at least a year.

- that is the problem with altcoins, there is a lot of them and none of them stand out! which one are you going to choose? if you say ... i will give you at least 50 others that outperform it each time in short term. there are obviously a couple on top due to their HUGE supply but the performance-wise there are a lot of them that give a much better profit.

Yup! I agree this will be just the momentum for bitcoin to make another bullish run, just wait for it and it will make it to $20,000, And does the price of bitcoin wittered down to the $14,000 USD, It is just having a hard time with the resistance because of the hype on other coins, And the news over the South Korea and Russia banning bitcoins transaction is all over the internet, And with the main stream media's news that scammers are using bitcoin for their gains are causing bitcoin to take a comeback, There are many things involve in bitcoin price resistance.

[HabBear]

How long do you reckon will the bear market last.

I'd enjoy us holding this price level for most or all of 2018. What that would mean is that Bitcoin has staying power. That it's not a bubble. That this valuation is fair. It can go up or it can go down, but let's prove that Bitcoin can hold this value for a long period of time...that will give people who are net yet involved with bitcoin the confidence to give it a shot and this will fuel the next cycle of growth.

What altcoins should we hold that has a high chance of success in gaining more market share against bitcoin?

Ripple is looking promising. It has one of the best business models and has really big companies. Ethereum is incredibly promising too. Lesser known options might be the AGI token provided by SingularityNet - using cryptocurrency for artificial intelligence.

[dothebeats]

Could be; could be not. The multi-year growth of bitcoin isn't hindered by anything within the last few months, though I must admit that its utility is at an all-time low given that making transactions isn't that great with the said crypto since it could take days for a single transaction that is adequately paid with fee to come through. Right now, the antics of South Korea  is kinda scaring weak hands off causing some day-to-day decline on the trading scene, though I wouldn't count that as the start of a bear market, just a quick reaction from the market at a given time.

Ripple is looking promising. It has one of the best business models and has really big companies. Ethereum is incredibly promising too. Lesser known options might be the AGI token provided by SingularityNet - using cryptocurrency for artificial intelligence.

Personally I wouldn't trust a private company on getting the tokens I wanted but with the recent performance of ripple and how positive the community is about it, I would risk it and take a bit knowing that I'm not alone if it goes windy on that way.

[mindrust]

Take a look at this shiet:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/lLSMXsGW-BTC-longtime-log-chart-12-25k-in-2017/

It is possible that we are in a 2 year bear run. $8-9k in 2019 and then $70k+ will be real.

[thecodebear]

How long do you reckon will the bear market last.

I'd enjoy us holding this price level for most or all of 2018. What that would mean is that Bitcoin has staying power. That it's not a bubble. That this valuation is fair. It can go up or it can go down, but let's prove that Bitcoin can hold this value for a long period of time...that will give people who are net yet involved with bitcoin the confidence to give it a shot and this will fuel the next cycle of growth.

I don't think you understand how people think. If Bitcoin went nowhere for most of this year while everything else rose, first all Ethereum would pass it, secondly why would any invest in it (as an investment) if everything else in the market is growing and it is not? Bitcoin not growing would means it's interest is not growing at all, so how would that be good?


Anyway the article is ridiculous. Articles like this come out when bitcoin is in a bear market. It will probably turn to a bull market again by next month and Bitcoin will be up in the 20,000s in February.

[BitHodler]

There is one major bullish strong point to look forward to, and honestly speaking, it's the only thing that matters here, and that's lightning network. We have reached a point where nothing else matters anymore.

If we manage to have lightning network enabled this year, we'll blast through the $20,000 mark like it's nothing. If we don't, I am afraid that we'll see the price fall down slowly but surely, and eventually even below $10,000.

Bitcoin's utility gets heavily limited by how SegWit is being blocked by services, and it can't drag on like that for ever. In this case it's basically a 50/50 situation in terms of the direction the market will head into.

On the other hand, we're in such a time, that even things making sense don't hold much importance anymore. It's a crazy market, and from there it may very well shoot up all the way till $30,000 and higher without lightning network.

In other words, everything we say doesn't hold any value initially.

[sjefdeklerk]

There is one major bullish strong point to look forward to, and honestly speaking, it's the only thing that matters here, and that's lightning network.

LN is a joke. People can only be part of a payment route when they're online. The guy with the least amount of money in the route determines how much you can even pay. You have ZERO guarantee you can actually pay someone with whom you don't have a direct route. Payments into/out of the channel are still on-chain so still huge fees. Users in a channel can defraud each other. Huge amounts of data traffic is needed because the network needs to be aware of EVERYBODY's payment channel's status, otherwise it can't discover routes. Man it's doomed to fail.

The big guys are short and the little guy is long, just like in the article. The little guy buys because 'bitcoin always goes up!!', the big guy uses his brains, sees that BTC failed as a payment system and shorts the crap out of this joke. Really, that's all there is to it, the article explains it very well.

[stompix]

So, I open the article:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4137094-bitcoin-big-short-already-get-far-worse

I say, let's check out this guy (the author), here is his profile:
https://seekingalpha.com/author/victor-dergunov/articles

Let's see what other things this "analyst" wrote in the past....
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4132509-bitcoin-likely-headed-50000-lot-higher

Bitcoin: Likely Headed To $50,000 And A Lot Higher After That

Are you F word serious?

But let's count more:

Will Bitcoin Stabilize Above $10,000 Or Is The Top Finally Here?
Dec. 1, 2017
Bitcoin: Not Your Ordinary Bubble
Dec. 9, 2017
Bitcoin Boom: Why Gain Capital Is Likely Going Much Higher In 2018
Mon, Jan. 8

Now, after this, why should anybody bother with this flip flop journalist ?

[omonuyak]

A very nice article but I think this is just a corrections and a just market reactions to what is happening in south Korea. I think the bullish run is not over yet and $20,000 is not the end. We should expect more  Positive happening by next week or next month as this has repeatedly happened when this fake news happen.

[MangoFish]

If LN would be initiated this year, bitcoin would have a short term bull run and potential staying power if the demand for bitcoin doesn't outgrow the capabilities of LN ( which it easily could unfortunately). I think LN could be a potential negative turning point for bitcoin, because if it reaches this upgrade then  block stream will have the first mover advantage of collecting small portions of everyone's transactions from the side-chains. Making it fundamentally indifferent from something like ripple.

[Slow death]

Take a look at this shiet:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/lLSMXsGW-BTC-longtime-log-chart-12-25k-in-2017/
$8-9k in 2019 and then $70k+ will be real.

I do not believe in these tradingview guys, I just look at the graphics they make but I do not trade based on the information they give. we are in 2018 with the price stable in the area of  $13000 -  $14000 and with more adoption in that year we can to reach more than $25,000, why the  do you believe that in 2019 we will be priced at $8.000?

How long do you reckon will the bear market last.

What altcoins should we hold that has a high chance of success in gaining more market share against bitcoin?

If someone had the answer to this question, this person would be the richest in the world

[mindrust]

Take a look at this shiet:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/lLSMXsGW-BTC-longtime-log-chart-12-25k-in-2017/
$8-9k in 2019 and then $70k+ will be real.

I do not believe in these tradingview guys, I just look at the graphics they make but I do not trade based on the information they give. we are in 2018 with the price stable in the area of  $13000 -  $14000 and with more adoption in that year we can to reach more than $25,000, why the  do you believe that in 2019 we will be priced at $8.000?

Technical Analysis is usually bullshit I know it but did you take a look at the link at least? Dude is on track since last year.

I also saw another good analysis before May and shared it in this forum. That analysis said that we may hit $20k in a few months. That was in May btw when btc was $1400.

People couldn't believe it yet it happened. It is damn crazy. You should see my topic too:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1932892.0

Some of those guys who draw lines really know what they are doing.

[eaLiTy]

A very nice article but I think this is just a corrections and a just market reactions to what is happening in south Korea. I think the bullish run is not over yet and $20,000 is not the end. We should expect more  Positive happening by next week or next month as this has repeatedly happened when this fake news happen.

The news that came out from Korea is not a fake one but it was from the minister of finance if i am not mistake and he just said they are planning to ban all the exchanges and the market reacted really badly ,in fact there are many steps to be taken in order to come up with a final verdict regarding this as they have to get the approval from the cabinet and so on,i do think that we will see a range bound trade for some time until the lightening network is activated.

[goribert]

I do not really see reasons for such a pessimistic expectation. The simple fact that the price of bitcoin has been maintained for a few weeks in a fairly stable range does not mean that all its growth potential has been terminated. On the contrary, I think that this is the right time to buy before bitcoin resumes its bullish trend.