Hashrate Difficulty Climbing

[AcidRaZor]

I recently ordered a 50GH/s unit that I would have (optimistically) wanted it to pay for itself in 3 months (delivery date November). It would appear now, with projections and the almost 50% increase in difficulty recently, that the trend for a 50%+ increase will continue. Especially with the time solving/confirming dropping from 10min to 5min.

It would appear that I won't ever even break even with this unit that I pre-ordered.

How accurate are the predictions that the difficulty will be at 178mil by November 2013?

[Anduck]

I wouldn't be surprised about 200 million hashrate by November. That's just 4x more than it's currently AND there's a lot of promises of delivering very much hashing power before the end of this year. If you ordered Bitfury-powered miner, atleast it's the most energy efficient miner currently.

[pacojones]

The expectation is for difficulty to be between 200 and 500 by December - more importantly, you likely ordered from BFL; they are MORE than 1 year behind in the shipping queue, if by recently ordered you mean you paid for your order in the last 2 months, there is little chance that you'll have it by November.  That said, I'm assuming your basing ROI on the current cost of 1 coin, right?  Keep in mind that the unit you bought probably cost 25BTC (ignoring $$ for a moment).  SO when you calculate this out you should see what it will take to make 25BTC. If you are going to 'invest' then your want to level the field - since you could've bought the 25 BTC just the same.  Basically once it produces 25.1BTC plus power, time and effort (costs) it's going to be profitable.

Unfortunately you are not incorrect in your assumption that you may never make this money back - or maybe you have free power and Internet and you can leave this running for 10 years...  Lots of variables to consider...

[operrajunk74]

I recently ordered a 50GH/s unit that I would have (optimistically) wanted it to pay for itself in 3 months (delivery date November). It would appear now, with projections and the almost 50% increase in difficulty recently, that the trend for a 50%+ increase will continue. Especially with the time solving/confirming dropping from 10min to 5min.

It would appear that I won't ever even break even with this unit that I pre-ordered.

How accurate are the predictions that the difficulty will be at 178mil by November 2013?

The 35% increase (not 50% !) was just an excess, I expect normal increase around 20-25% per retarget and slowly decreasing over time

[hermann1983]

How accurate are the predictions that the difficulty will be at 178mil by November 2013?

I predict 125-200, if increase is 20-30% every retarget

[AcidRaZor]

My order is for Bitfury ASIC unit and costs 20 BTC. Delivery date has been confirmed for late October but may only happen in November.

I should be seeing 1 watt per GH in terms of power usage.

I might have been incorrect in terms of the increase in difficulty, what I meant was it would see a 50% increase every 2 weeks (or sooner) according to some models I've seen online. The only way I'll be seeing a ROI within 3 months after November is if I buy a 400GH/s unit, which is 120 BTC.

I'm not taking into account the cost of a BTC in $ by that time. I'm just wondering if I should rather take my money elsewhere and cancel my order

[Clowil]

If Bitfury and KnC will deliever on time we will see even higher diff change spikes.

[azw409]

Welcome to the end of bitcoin. Nobody can make a ROI mining and so existing miners will just consolidate until one has 51% and then everyone will stop using bitcoin.

It's pointless for anybody to buy new hardware now as the more is actually delivered the more it will become obsolete by rising difficulty.

No new miners means no new bitcoin owners with money to spend so shrinking bitcoin economy. It's been a fascinating experiment that looked as though it might actually work but alas the rising difficulty that protected it will actually kill it IMHO.

[AcidRaZor]

Thanks for the feedback so far guys. I think I have my answer, will cancel my order and rather push my money into a different venture

[DaveLister]

I recently ordered a 50GH/s unit that I would have (optimistically) wanted it to pay for itself in 3 months (delivery date November). It would appear now, with projections and the almost 50% increase in difficulty recently, that the trend for a 50%+ increase will continue. Especially with the time solving/confirming dropping from 10min to 5min.

It would appear that I won't ever even break even with this unit that I pre-ordered.

How accurate are the predictions that the difficulty will be at 178mil by November 2013?

I ordered from BFL 11 months ago and still nothing!  The chances or you getting this device in time to make easy money are nil to 0 and the chance of a steady income are also limited!

BFL are finished as a company due to this as any future releases of EQ will be avoided by the BTC community. 

During the gold rush the only people that got rich were the guys selling the shovels !

bitcoin is becoming only for the rich and elite.   

[millsdmb]

Welcome to the end of bitcoin. Nobody can make a ROI mining and so existing miners will just consolidate until one has 51% and then everyone will stop using bitcoin.

It's pointless for anybody to buy new hardware now as the more is actually delivered the more it will become obsolete by rising difficulty.

No new miners means no new bitcoin owners with money to spend so shrinking bitcoin economy. It's been a fascinating experiment that looked as though it might actually work but alas the rising difficulty that protected it will actually kill it IMHO.

This is not the end of bitcoin. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=273184.0;all

[CaloHash]

I recently ordered a 50GH/s unit that I would have (optimistically) wanted it to pay for itself in 3 months (delivery date November). It would appear now, with projections and the almost 50% increase in difficulty recently, that the trend for a 50%+ increase will continue. Especially with the time solving/confirming dropping from 10min to 5min.

It would appear that I won't ever even break even with this unit that I pre-ordered.

How accurate are the predictions that the difficulty will be at 178mil by November 2013?

I ordered from BFL 11 months ago and still nothing!  The chances or you getting this device in time to make easy money are nil to 0 and the chance of a steady income are also limited!

BFL are finished as a company due to this as any future releases of EQ will be avoided by the BTC community. 

During the gold rush the only people that got rich were the guys selling the shovels !

bitcoin is becoming only for the rich and elite.   

Profitable individual home brew mining will ends together with this year, imho.

[riz]

breaking even may still happen if you keep your mined btc until the price rises.

[CaloHash]

I am prisoner of BFL too, maybe i get my miners at late September. Than i will mine for October (may get half of ROI) and sell equipement
at ebay to get equal. If BTC rises up to 200USD than there will be more time for me to mine.

[Damnsammit]

How accurate are the predictions that the difficulty will be at 178mil by November 2013?

I think that would be a best-case scenario for you.  Assuming a 40% increase every 14 days, you are looking at almost twice that by early November.

15-Aug    50,000,000
29-Aug    70,000,000
12-Sep    98,000,000
26-Sep    137,200,000
10-Oct    192,080,000
24-Oct    268,912,000
7-Nov    376,476,800

Keep in mind, that it will probably increase more than 40% with all of the hashing power that BitFury, HashFast, KNC, ASIC Miner, CoinTerra, TerraHash, and BFL will be releasing between now and November.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's over 400M by November.

Cancel your order and buy some Bitcoins if you want to invest.  That 50GH/s is going to probably net you about $5/day by the time you get it.

[CaloHash]

How accurate are the predictions that the difficulty will be at 178mil by November 2013?

I think that would be a best-case scenario for you.  Assuming a 40% increase every 14 days, you are looking at almost twice that by early November.

15-Aug    50,000,000
29-Aug    70,000,000
12-Sep    98,000,000
26-Sep    137,200,000
10-Oct    192,080,000
24-Oct    268,912,000
7-Nov    376,476,800

Keep in mind, that it will probably increase more than 40% with all of the hashing power that BitFury, HashFast, KNC, ASIC Miner, CoinTerra, TerraHash, and BFL will be releasing between now and November.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's over 400M by November.

Cancel your order and buy some Bitcoins if you want to invest.  That 50GH/s is going to probably net you about $5/day by the time you get it.

yes, unfortunetly. This one i like to play with difficulty  http://btc.re/?t=miningcalc

[riz]

this one is quite good at getting people depressed

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

[Olly_K]

Welcome to the end of bitcoin. Nobody can make a ROI mining and so existing miners will just consolidate until one has 51% and then everyone will stop using bitcoin.

It's pointless for anybody to buy new hardware now as the more is actually delivered the more it will become obsolete by rising difficulty.

No new miners means no new bitcoin owners with money to spend so shrinking bitcoin economy. It's been a fascinating experiment that looked as though it might actually work but alas the rising difficulty that protected it will actually kill it IMHO.

this +1000

[millsdmb]

No new miners means no new bitcoin owners with money to spend so shrinking bitcoin economy. It's been a fascinating experiment that looked as though it might actually work but alas the rising difficulty that protected it will actually kill it IMHO.

This is just some bull crap.

[DannyHamilton]

breaking even may still happen if you keep your mined btc until the price rises.

Not if you compare it to what would have happened if you'd have sunk the exact same amount of cash into purchasing bitcoin directly and then just sat on that bitcoin for the same amount of time.