Mt.Gox suppressing the price of Bitcoin?

[Ares]

Everyone keeps talking about how the Mt.Gox price is artificially high because people are buying to get their coins/money out. But isn't it the case that USD deposits are not working either? With all the great innovations, steps forward, and publicity Bitcoin has gotten recently there are undoubtedly a lot of deposits held up from new players. It's like two damns facing eachother, and i'd bet the damn with deposits outsizes the damn with people looking to get out based on all the recent happenings.

But Ares, look at Bitstamp and other exchanges! Well when the market sentiment is that Gox is artificially inflating the price, of course those exchanges will be lower.

Thoughts?

[DeathAndTaxes]

You can deposit BTC easily but you can't remove USD easily.  That is the disconnect.  So you can sell your BTC to for USD and then are stuck with dollars you can't do anything with ... except buy BTC back at inflated prices.

As for deposits.  If you could buy deposit (or attempt to do so) $x on MtGox and get an exchange rate of $105 or $x on Bitstamp and get an exchange rate of $97.  Why would you pick the higher price?  You like paying more for less?  A Bitcoin from MtGox isn't any shinier than a Bitcoin from Bitstamp.


The sentiment is backwards looking.  A few months ago the spread was relatively close.  The spread widened and the sentiment is only reacting to that widening (and it continues to widen) spread not the other way round.

[Ares]

You can deposit BTC easily but you can't remove USD easily.  That is the disconnect.  So you can sell your BTC to for USD and then are stuck with dollars you can't do anything with ... except buy BTC back at inflated prices.


The sentiment is backwards looking.  A few months ago the spread was relatively close.  The spread widened and the sentiment is only reacting to that widening (and it continues to widen) spread not the other way round.

I was referring to depositing USD. If there are thousands of people waiting to get USD INTO mt.gox, I am thinking that will actually result in a value of Bitcoin over where we currently are once the doors are open to USD deposits and withdrawals.

I updated the OP to make that more clear.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I doubt it.

As for deposits.  If you could buy deposit (or attempt to do so) $x on MtGox and get an exchange rate of $105 or $x on Bitstamp and get an exchange rate of $97.  Why would you pick the higher price?  You like paying more for less?  A Bitcoin from MtGox isn't any shinier than a Bitcoin from Bitstamp.


If you think the price will rise and want to be part of it why would you pick $105 per BTC which you might not get for weeks over $97 per BTC which you can almost certainly get in a few days.

[Ares]

I doubt it.

As for deposits.  If you could buy deposit (or attempt to do so) $x on MtGox and get an exchange rate of $105 or $x on Bitstamp and get an exchange rate of $97.  Why would you pick the higher price?  You like paying more for less?  A Bitcoin from MtGox isn't any shinier than a Bitcoin from Bitstamp.


If you think the price will rise and want to be part of it why would you pick $105 per BTC which you might not get for weeks over $97 per BTC which you can almost certainly get in a few days.

There could be a couple reasons. Coinbase requires a linked bank account iirc so that turns many away. And Bitstamp is much smaller and less established than gox so newcomers may not feel comfortable.

On top of that, why would I want to buy bitcoins at $97 on bitstamp when theres the risk of whales coming over from gox and dumping.

In fact, I would argue that deposits into all exchanges are being held up (by choice) until the whole gox thing gets cleared up. Once things are running smoothly, it is then that big players will say OK, I feel comfortable getting in now. Bitcoin has been EVERYWHERE as of recently, who knows how many wealthy investors are waiting on the sideling until this is all cleared up which still results in a suppressed price.

[GIANNAT]

On top of that, why would I want to buy bitcoins at $97 on bitstamp when theres the risk of whales coming over from gox and dumping.

It's stupid to dump on bitstamp when you bought on gox

[Kaiji]

I'm a bit surprised that this current deposit problem with Gox hasn't caused a selling frenzy and consequent price drop. Back in Apr. the smallest hiccup in gox caused prices to fall to $60. Seems like the people who own coins now are more patient and less likely to panic.

[lucas.sev]

I'm a bit surprised that this current deposit problem with Gox hasn't caused a selling frenzy and consequent price drop. Back in Apr. the smallest hiccup in gox caused prices to fall to $60. Seems like the people who own coins now are more patient and less likely to panic.

Thing is to cash out you need to buy. Still, I do not believe that people buy because of that.

[Hfleer]

I'm a bit surprised that this current deposit problem with Gox hasn't caused a selling frenzy and consequent price drop. Back in Apr. the smallest hiccup in gox caused prices to fall to $60. Seems like the people who own coins now are more patient and less likely to panic.

Gox is in a downward spiral people seem more likely to conider alternatives now.

[Chronikka]

Gox is in a downward spiral people seem more likely to conider alternatives now.

People are already turning elsewhere. MtGox now controls more like 60-65% of the market according to http://bitcoinwatch.com/ which is down from the 80-90% it was 2 years ago.

Other exchanges are gaining support with the recent struggles of gox, particularly BitStamp which will probably pass MtGox by the end of the year if they don't fix their deposit/withdraw issues soon. I just wonder why it trades so much higher at Gox than any where else...as of me writing this the Gox price is ~$111 while its ~$97 at Bitstamp. You would expect a slightly higher price at an exchange with more volume buts its consistently 5-10% higher at gox

[bitcoin44me]

I'm a bit surprised that this current deposit problem with Gox hasn't caused a selling frenzy and consequent price drop. Back in Apr. the smallest hiccup in gox caused prices to fall to $60. Seems like the people who own coins now are more patient and less likely to panic.

Mt.gox does not represent 80% of the exchanges now. It does not really matter what happens there.

[johnyj]

I'm a bit surprised that this current deposit problem with Gox hasn't caused a selling frenzy and consequent price drop. Back in Apr. the smallest hiccup in gox caused prices to fall to $60. Seems like the people who own coins now are more patient and less likely to panic.

Now when something went wrong with GOX, the only way to withdraw your fund is to buy bitcoin and send them out, so it becomes a price rally instead

Any future banking problem will create a bitcoin rally, just like gold, a safeheaven currency, it really shines when a crisis hit

[Hfleer]

Gox still has some decent volume, must be arbitrageurs though, I think thats all it's good for.

[Odalv]

Almost zero volume but "Mtgox trading engine lag: 1m 30s"

[NamelessOne]

Almost zero volume but "Mtgox trading engine lag: 1m 30s"

I noticed that too. Almost 2 mins at one point. Lame.

[Walsoraj]

I agree w OP that only reason the price is not over $10k/per btc is manipulation, suppression and oppression. clearly, demand is at all time high, you just need to understand the fundamentals

[Chronikka]

I agree w OP that only reason the price is not over $10k/per btc is manipulation, suppression and oppression. clearly, demand is at all time high, you just need to understand the fundamentals

10k per btc? are you nuts who would pay that? Tell you what I have some btc and I'll sell for 1000 each. PM me.

[Walsoraj]

I agree w OP that only reason the price is not over $10k/per btc is manipulation, suppression and oppression. clearly, demand is at all time high, you just need to understand the fundamentals

10k per btc? are you nuts who would pay that? Tell you what I have some btc and I'll sell for 1000 each. PM me.

a year from now all the current bear-tards will be more than willing

[dnaleor]

On top of that, why would I want to buy bitcoins at $97 on bitstamp when theres the risk of whales coming over from gox and dumping.

It's stupid to dump on bitstamp when you bought on gox

[fastforward 2 years]
yes indeed, who needs fiat anyway these days?
[/fastforward 2 years]

[Nagle]

I was referring to depositing USD. If there are thousands of people waiting to get USD INTO mt.gox, I am thinking that will actually result in a value of Bitcoin over where we currently are once the doors are open to USD deposits and withdrawals.

Nobody is reporting trouble getting funds into Mt. Gox. Nobody has reported that their SWIFT transfer to Mt. Gox was rejected. Mt. Gox says they are dragging their feet about crediting inbound transfers to customer accounts, but that's purely a Mt. Gox problem.