Bitcoin Pattern 101

[Nubitcoinerr]

Seems like we're going below $5k in 2018.... what do you think?

[1715546824]

1715546824

[1715546824]

1715546824

[1715546824]

1715546824

[1715546824]

1715546824

[Nosk]

Well history taught us that btc doesn't follow any pattern. Just sayin.
(Well, maybe excepted that every ~12-16 Jan is a low peak and then rise again)

[TheQuin]

I think that looks like a bull flag and it is going much higher. I don't see much chance of seeing sub $10K prices again and the next upside target is $23.5k.

[Nubitcoinerr]

I think that looks like a bull flag and it is going much higher. I don't see much chance of seeing sub $10K prices again and the next upside target is $23.5k.

How do you see it hit 23.5k? Where does it go from there? $30k? Then where? Do you know how oversold BTC has been?

Do you understand how high the market cap has risen, for something that is all based on theoretical potential?

[TheQuin]

How do you see it hit 23.5k?

Mathematical extrapolation of the depth of the current pullback.

Where does it go from there? $30k? Then where?

One thing at a time, we need to see how it reacts when it gets there before making any judgement as to the probability of what happens next.

Do you know how oversold BTC has been?

I'm a professional futures trader and I strongly advise against using overbought/oversold signals. A market can stay in overbought/oversold territory for an extended period of time. Looking at a chart in hindsight might look like it was a good signal but in fact, you would have entered far too early and been stopped out most times.

Do you understand how high the market cap has risen, for something that is all based on theoretical potential?

Yes. I also understand Metcalfe's law and see it explains the current market cap and shows the level of potential still there. Only a few million people own a crypto wallet at the moment out of a population of well over 7Bn. I also saw some research that stated based on current trends by 2028 50% of the population will be using crypto.

Going back to price prediction it is just that, a prediction based on probability. No trader is right everytime but this has all the signs of a buying opportunity at the moment. The number of people screaming on this forum and in chat rooms that 'it's crashing' are what I call confirmation signals.

[Maveth13]

I think that looks like a bull flag and it is going much higher. I don't see much chance of seeing sub $10K prices again and the next upside target is $23.5k.

I think the sudden increase of price range to $10k-$20k happened too fast even for bitcoin. I don't see $10k being the support here, anything below that but higher than $7k would still be an acceptable drop. During the bull run I thought $15k was the resistance, but it blew past that and seemed like $20k is the resistance. So I think you're target $23.5k would still take a long time.

[bitcoinisbest]

I think that looks like a bull flag and it is going much higher. I don't see much chance of seeing sub $10K prices again and the next upside target is $23.5k.

We can reach to 5k levels provided we see something like South Korea decision affecting other parts of the world and start banning it. Thus the market will shrink as once country imposes ban people will move away from it and demand and price both will drop drastically.

[LoyceV]

Bitcoin fell about 40% from the peak, just like it did a few more times in the past year.
You're looking at that graph in the wrong way, I prefer the log-graph:

Of course I don't like seeing it drop, but on the logarithmic scale it had grown more than my imaginary long-term straight line. If the long-term line continues, it'll be worth 10 times more again in 2-3 years.

We can reach to 5k levels provided we see something like South Korea decision affecting other parts of the world and start banning it.

The whole point of having Bitcoins is not caring about what any government thinks about it.

[TheQuin]

I think the sudden increase of price range to $10k-$20k happened too fast even for bitcoin.

Too fast is not a trading concept.

I don't see $10k being the support here,

I think you will find the market found support at $10,700 and then rallied to over $17,000. It is possible to argue that this support will not hold this time but not that it doesn't exist.

anything below that but higher than $7k would still be an acceptable drop.

Anything above $100 is acceptable to me but markets really don't care what we find acceptable.

During the bull run I thought $15k was the resistance, but it blew past that and seemed like $20k is the resistance.

There are no resistance levels when a market is making all-time highs, that is the process of price discovery. Now that the high is in it becomes a resistance level.

So I think you're target $23.5k would still take a long time.

Again, how long is not a trading concept. The trade is that I believe that this is a good area to buy with a tight stop and an upside target of $23.5k. It is a high probability low-risk trade.

[1Referee]

As long as the market remains supporting the $10,000 level, it's pretty pointless to speculate about anything lower than that. People shouldn't forget that we have gone up so much, which was all based on very bullish developments such as the future markets to begin with, that right now without anything to look forward to, it's difficult to motivate the market to move up. I don't mind seeing the price go down a bit further as long as the $10,000 level remains strong. It just requires one bullish trigger to see the market rocket up with a few thousand in just a matter of hours, so it's not looking all that bad. The thin markets can be held responsible for the large swings we experience.

[alyssa85]

The bitcoin price is correlated with the Google Trends chart.

When bitcoin is in the press and people are talking about how high the price is, you get a lot of new users and that pushes the price up further.

At the moment the press interest has died down and lots of the exchanges are closed to new users because they can't cope with the growth. The bitcoin price won't march upwards again until the exchanges re-open to new users so they can actually buy the coins.

[HeRetiK]

Seems like we're going below $5k in 2018.... what do you think?

Nah... I mean it's possible, of course, but I have to concur with TheQuin that USD 10,000,- is going to be a tough support to shatter. Even after that I think the lowest we can go would be USD 6,000,-.

I don't dare making any upside predictions though. The last year of Bitcoin has been beyond any of my expectations given the timeframe.

The bitcoin price is correlated with the Google Trends chart.

When bitcoin is in the press and people are talking about how high the price is, you get a lot of new users and that pushes the price up further.

At the moment the press interest has died down and lots of the exchanges are closed to new users because they can't cope with the growth. The bitcoin price won't march upwards again until the exchanges re-open to new users so they can actually buy the coins.

Correlation does not imply causation.

Still, I too think that exchanges are one of the major bottlenecks right now. Hard to get fresh liquidity into the market if exchanges take half an eternity for verification. Might be for the better in the long run though, as anyone who's rushing into Bitcoin right now has probably not put much thought into it. So anyone who's waiting to get verified right now has some time to ponder on whether they really want to enter the market.

I think another factor are alts though. It seems like a lot of new speculators flock towards alts right now, hoping to invest in the next Bitcoin. That probably won't end well.

[SONG GEET]

Seems like we're going below $5k in 2018.... what do you think?

Lol looks like you are panicing a lot without any reason.

If you haven't sold your coins at high price than don't sell them right now. Its time to buy not sell and no price will not go below $10k for bitcoin anytime soon.

[btcone111]

I agree there is a chance it could touch $5K im not surprised at all

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

Seems like we're going below $5k in 2018.... what do you think?

Based on?

[batang_bitcoin]

Seems like we're going below $5k in 2018.... what do you think?

I thought by reading this thread I'll read some pattern that you've seen from the past years on the same time. Let's get straight, no one knows if bitcoin will go below $5,000 or it will recover immediately after this quick dip. But be positive on it, last year of January 2017 the same thing happened.

Well history taught us that btc doesn't follow any pattern. Just sayin.

This.

[Nubitcoinerr]

Look at the graph, you're telling me history tells us Bitcoin doesn't follow patterns. Graph just said it does.

[YuginKadoya]

Look at the graph, you're telling me history tells us Bitcoin doesn't follow patterns. Graph just said it does.

Well you can see in the graph that it may have a pattern of bitcoin going down in certain dates but I really think this is just a coincidence on having a pattern on the graph, Bitcoin value is really down right now and it is because of so much FUD and negative news all around now that it gain popularity I think this is a bad time for bitcoin gaining newbie investors that is when they will surely panic and would sell of their bitcoin.

[Enjel]

Look at the graph, you're telling me history tells us Bitcoin doesn't follow patterns. Graph just said it does.

Well, if you want to believe in patterns, then you must believe it will go up very soon.

On a micro-scale though, it follows very very few patterns. One of the ones it does seem to follow is the Chinese New Year dip pattern though.

China isn't in the market now, but many Asian countries are more than ever.

[miccb]

hope you dont mind me asking about the x axis graph label