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Author Topic: Value Estimate of Avalon Miner today  (Read 1005 times)
ProfMac
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August 17, 2013, 08:00:25 PM
 #1

I want to know the value of an Avalon miner.

I used this calculator with presets for a 3 module miner.
An additional step should be to discount each future week to the present value using some interest rate.  I have not done that step.

This gives me a value of about 70 BTC for an Avalon.

I am sure that many people would use different numbers for this.  For the power, I used 650 W * 80 GH / 65 GH --> 800 W, as it is overclocked.

I'd like to hear what other's think.


I try to be respectful and informed.
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Bitcoinorama
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August 17, 2013, 08:07:17 PM
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I would like to think that the value includes some renumeration for elec, time waiting for the goods (and thus funds tied) and your own effort to purchase and maintain, or why not buy the coins in the first place, aside from as a niche project, which Bitcoin wants to move away from.

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ProfMac
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August 17, 2013, 08:19:26 PM
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I would like to think that the value includes some renumeration for elec, time waiting for the goods (and thus funds tied) and your own effort to purchase and maintain, or why not buy the coins in the first place, aside from as a niche project, which Bitcoin wants to move away from.

Yes, I agree.  I own an Avalon, and want to raise funds for a HashFast Baby Jet.  I want to envision a way to use my existing Avalon to build confidence in a group buy.  I can promise the income from the Avalon as a backup in case of non-delivery.

I need numbers that the community has commented upon.

For example, again neglecting a conversion to present value ( "and thus funds tied" )
1.  Remuneration for electricity:  800 W * 24 Hour / Day * 7 Day / week --> 134.4 kWh / week  At $0.085 / kWh * 1 BTC / 94.6 $ --> 0.120 7 BTC / week, or 5.31 BTC / 44 weeks.

Would anyone care to offer numbers?

I try to be respectful and informed.
SebastianJu
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August 17, 2013, 09:15:33 PM
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You can use this: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

But at the moment the difficulty isnt rising a fixed percent each week. Its rising logarithmically. Last 30 days difficulty rise were 46%, then 71% now its 94% already.
k9quaint
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August 17, 2013, 09:18:30 PM
 #5

I want to know the value of an Avalon miner.

I used this calculator with presets for a 3 module miner.
An additional step should be to discount each future week to the present value using some interest rate.  I have not done that step.

This gives me a value of about 70 BTC for an Avalon.

I am sure that many people would use different numbers for this.  For the power, I used 650 W * 80 GH / 65 GH --> 800 W, as it is overclocked.

I'd like to hear what other's think.

The best way to do it would be to make a probability grid on top of various projections for rises in difficulty. That should allow you to graph a surface for the value of your Avalon under most circumstances.

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Ytterbium
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August 18, 2013, 06:03:42 AM
 #6

You can use this: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

But at the moment the difficulty isnt rising a fixed percent each week. Its rising logarithmically. Last 30 days difficulty rise were 46%, then 71% now its 94% already.

Wouldn't a logarithmic growth be 10, then 11, then 11.1, etc?   Right now the growth is still an in the 'exponential' class of functions, but with a form like Xyz

driksson
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August 18, 2013, 07:43:36 AM
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Wow.. there is so many ways of seeing an evaluation of such machine.
1, why are you looking to buy?
a, To make your coins back
b, to make your coins back and start making profit

2, do you belive the bitcoin currency will:
a: increase in value
If you believe the coins will increase in value, against the usd, you will make money as long as it mines currently more than 1 coin per month (it costs you roughly $100/m on 800-1000watt OC on 3 boards)
b: decrease in value
If you think the btc will decrease its value due to fact of more sellers than buyers, since people will need their money back asap on their investments, what else can you invest with the new mined btc? do you believe its better to mine the coins than to purchase them?

3, do you think the machine has a resell value after you mined back say 75% of your investment? (and when have you mined back 75%, can you afford to do it in 8 months?)

4, Some investments has up to ten years to make full roi, how long are you willing to wait to make all your money back? 1 year? 3-6 months?

5, the current huge rises in difficulty, do you really believe them to be maintained?
a, yes. Then i think it could be difficult to make the coins back within 12 months
b, no. look at this site http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/, on difficulty increase, instead of using percentage. put MM and play with past numbers instead of percentages, say 20-40 per month, or even 60. But would it make sense with a continued 90% per month increase ongoing?

I currently valuate batch 2 & 3 , 3 boards at 65btc. you will maybe make back 50-70% of that in the first 3 months pending on difficulty rise. Some sellers are not selling them lower than 99 btc STILL!
Question is then, when you made back your 50-70%, would it be worth 32.5-45.5BTC? i believe yes, then you lost nothing and you can get your coins back at lest. What would BTC/USD be evaluated at that stage. who knows.
The price will drop exponentially on each difficulty increase, if there are enough sellers who want to get out rather than continuing getting less and less mining.
senseless
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August 18, 2013, 08:17:54 AM
 #8

You could get about 60BTC by selling the unit and then use those funds to order the hash fast.

With your existing BTC income (assuming you got yours around when I got mine) you should have generated enough already to purchase 2 hash fasts with change left over for a cointerra.

There's no reason to keep a machine that wont even pay for the electric used in a couple months except for future collector's value (assuming there will be any).







GodfatherBond
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August 18, 2013, 02:10:13 PM
 #9

You could get about 60BTC by selling the unit and then use those funds to order the hash fast.

With your existing BTC income (assuming you got yours around when I got mine) you should have generated enough already to purchase 2 hash fasts with change left over for a cointerra.

There's no reason to keep a machine that wont even pay for the electric used in a couple months except for future collector's value (assuming there will be any).


Wondering also should I sell my Avalon end of this month or september and what price or just mine & store it when no profitable anymore... I found some time ago from my warehouse very old Apple computer and it seems to have quite high value - maybe. I think that original Avalons will have nice collectors value - lets say after ten+ years - if Bitcoing goes well... and of course it would be nice to hold piece of history in that case!
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August 18, 2013, 02:46:50 PM
 #10

You can use this: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

But at the moment the difficulty isnt rising a fixed percent each week. Its rising logarithmically. Last 30 days difficulty rise were 46%, then 71% now its 94% already.

Wouldn't a logarithmic growth be 10, then 11, then 11.1, etc?   Right now the growth is still an in the 'exponential' class of functions, but with a form like Xyz

I think youre right. Got the wrong word...
calmindifference
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August 18, 2013, 06:05:20 PM
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Factor in that for northern climates over the winter mining energy costs can be offset by reduced heating costs, at least for domestic miners.
bcp19
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August 18, 2013, 07:27:28 PM
 #12

I want to know the value of an Avalon miner.

I used this calculator with presets for a 3 module miner.
An additional step should be to discount each future week to the present value using some interest rate.  I have not done that step.

This gives me a value of about 70 BTC for an Avalon.

I am sure that many people would use different numbers for this.  For the power, I used 650 W * 80 GH / 65 GH --> 800 W, as it is overclocked.

I'd like to hear what other's think.


My opinion: 53 BTC

I think your model is too conservative.

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I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
driksson
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August 19, 2013, 12:00:31 PM
 #13

I want to know the value of an Avalon miner.

I used this calculator with presets for a 3 module miner.
An additional step should be to discount each future week to the present value using some interest rate.  I have not done that step.

This gives me a value of about 70 BTC for an Avalon.

I am sure that many people would use different numbers for this.  For the power, I used 650 W * 80 GH / 65 GH --> 800 W, as it is overclocked.

I'd like to hear what other's think.


I think your model is too conservative.

Again.. who knows..

So, in 25 weeks, we will see 24x current difficulty? Quite surely, before that, many inbetween miners, that has been hosted on offices for free but finally only doing pennies will shut off. Along with other miners shutting off aswell.
I dont believe the increase can be that steep even if half the promised hardwares start shipping. (from 50,810,339 to 1,226,438,065 in 25 weeks (6 months!..) but anyway, we will live to see the proof for sure!

adding 70M per month will look something like this:
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/fc54d24eaa
roi in 210 days on 50 BTC..
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