MtGox is about to run out of bitcoins.

[lordgerson]

There are many posts about the arbitrage gap between the mtgox price and the price on other exchanges. This being caused by people trying to get there money outa gox by buying bitcoin and then selling the bitcoin on another exchange  (because gox customers have not been able wire transfers of fiat out of gox for some time).

I have been watching the market depth of the various bitcoin exchanges for some time. A few month back there were 200K+ coins in the sell queue at gox, this has slowly dropped to about 60K coins in the sell queue. On other exchanges (i.e. bitstamp) the sell queue is increasing.

I now think the miners (and anyone else with coins) is no longer sending them to gox to be sold. Thus gox is running out of coins (just like they have run outa fiat).

It looks to me to be coming to a head, I would guess that before the end of September (maybe sooner) gox will run out of coins. When this happens we would get an new all time high on gox of BTC. Basically BTC on MTGOX should go really high ($200+ per BTC). However every other exchange stays at about $100 BTC. All shit breaks loose at that point.

I notice a number of forex brokers are giving options/cfd's on the btc gox price. As long as the broker was sound, it may be time to take that bet.   

[Kluge]

There's nothing supporting speculation that Gox is bankrupt or otherwise out of fiat. It more likely can't transfer fiat because they're either unwilling or unable to work with the conventional banking structures to push out the volume they need.

Not being able to send out fiat (particularly bad with USD), volume is obviously dropping, because even though the price is higher, what good is GoxUSD if you can't redeem it for real USD?

Gox is dying (really, 0% chance of ever recovering the majority exchange market share - so "dead" might be appropriate), but I don't see anything suggesting there will be some type of destructive implosion (outside a severe lack of urgency @ Gox to resolve this).

[polrpaul]

just be careful out there - not everything is as you perceive it. 

[lordgerson]

There's nothing supporting speculation that Gox is bankrupt or otherwise out of fiat. It more likely can't transfer fiat because they're either unwilling or unable to work with the conventional banking structures to push out the volume they need.

Not being able to send out fiat (particularly bad with USD), volume is obviously dropping, because even though the price is higher, what good is GoxUSD if you can't redeem it for real USD?

Gox is dying (really, 0% chance of ever recovering the majority exchange market share - so "dead" might be appropriate), but I don't see anything suggesting there will be some type of destructive implosion (outside a severe lack of urgency @ Gox to resolve this).

I think what we do not know is how much USD was taken by the USA Gov when they seized mtgox's dwalla account - thus gox may well be out of fiat. The number of BTC in the sell queue is decreasing, however I have not seen a decrease in the buy queue on mtgox. Thus it is outa whack.

With only 60K coins in the sell queue on gox, those coins could be eaten in only a few days.

I bought a good quantity of coin at $10-$12 in 2012. I watched the volumes/market depth prior to the bubble / peak at $260. Those breakout patterns are again repeating (by my calcs btc on gox is about to go up quickly). However there are very different fundamentals - the others exchanges are not synced with gox this time.  I reccon we are in for an interesting few weeks.

[nolocimes]

did anyone else notice blockchaininfo seems to have dropped gox from its ticket numbers? previously it seemed to be heavily volume weighted by gox numbers,  but recently it seems to have dropped the gox numbers?

[Kluge]

did anyone else notice blockchaininfo seems to have dropped gox from its ticket numbers? previously it seemed to be heavily volume weighted by gox numbers,  but recently it seems to have dropped the gox numbers?

Bitmit's stopped relying on Gox, too. They no longer hold >50% exchange market share. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

Since the market on Gox is broken, it makes more sense to use exchanges where price is more in line with USD or whatever instead of GoxUSD (or GoxWhatever).

[nolocimes]

Agreed regarding sourcing market data from functional  markets.

I've been wondering where the semi professionals have been hedging their underlying..  no single exchange has enough liquidity.

I put in  an fx cfd platform once and you really need decent liquidity providers..

[lordgerson]

Agreed regarding sourcing market data from functional  markets.

I've been wondering where the semi professionals have been hedging their underlying..  no single exchange has enough liquidity.

I put in  an fx cfd platform once and you really need decent liquidity providers..

I have been looking at using http://www.plus500.com/Instruments/BTCUSD rather then gox for my trading (I am Aus based). They offer a CFD linked to the gox usd price. I would like to know if anyone else is using them and what they think of the company.

[bobpaul]

Not being able to send out fiat (particularly bad with USD), volume is obviously dropping, because even though the price is higher, what good is GoxUSD if you can't redeem it for real USD?

Except that you can still transfer to/from European bank accounts (though it sounds like there's a delay) and it looks like they're getting setup to support US accounts though wiretransfer if nothing else.

Mtgox relied too heavily on dwolla, and that's hurt them. They'll never recover the market share they once had. But I don't think they're dead; they're not currently attractive to US based bitcoiners. Once they get that sorted out, things will normalize.

[lordgerson]

did anyone else notice blockchaininfo seems to have dropped gox from its ticket numbers? previously it seemed to be heavily volume weighted by gox numbers,  but recently it seems to have dropped the gox numbers?

Bitmit's stopped relying on Gox, too. They no longer hold >50% exchange market share. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

Since the market on Gox is broken, it makes more sense to use exchanges where price is more in line with USD or whatever instead of GoxUSD (or GoxWhatever).

Gox still has 59% of the USD market according to blockchaininfo chart (USD is 72% of total market, mtgox USD is 43% of total market ...gox share of marker is 100*43/72 = 59%). 

[nolocimes]

not for long though..  anyone have a chat of market share over time?

fast settlements and low counterparty risk is the name of the game with exchanges..  gox is down and out, unless a credible fi buys them.

[po1992one]

It looks to me to be coming to a head, I would guess that before the end of September (maybe sooner) gox will run out of coins. 

Well withdrawing Bitcoins from Gox is delayed as well. They have liquidity problems. They are close to dead imho

[lordgerson]

not for long though..  anyone have a chat of market share over time?

fast settlements and low counterparty risk is the name of the game with exchanges..  gox is down and out, unless a credible fi buys them.

Dunno where you can get a chart of market share over time, but I guess it would start with gox haveing 100% market share back in 2010, and that slowly decreasing to 60% that it is at present. If they do not get there act together I think that gox market share may decrease at a greater/increasing rate.

I would also love to see a chart of market depth on gox (and other exchanges) over time. Dunno how to get this chart either.

[lordgerson]

It looks to me to be coming to a head, I would guess that before the end of September (maybe sooner) gox will run out of coins. 

Well withdrawing Bitcoins from Gox is delayed as well. They have liquidity problems. They are close to dead imho

I pulled 200 coins out of gox yesterday and it was sent in the next block - no delay whatsoever (That was two transactions of 100 coins). I have had no issues getting coins in/out of gox over the past few months. How are you having trouble getting coins out?

[nolocimes]

I think that's the point.  there is no problem moving coins in and out.  but getting usd fiat out seems to be a nightmare.

I have several thousand usd that's been sitting in the queue for two weeks now.

should I sit and wait,  cancel it and send coins out,  or change to another currency?


some Ppl have murmured that non usd is faster but I haven't talked to anyone with concrete experience in recent weeks..  any thoughts?

thanks

[lordgerson]

I think that's the point.  there is no problem moving coins in and out.  but getting usd fiat out seems to be a nightmare.

I have several thousand usd that's been sitting in the queue for two weeks now.

should I sit and wait,  cancel it and send coins out,  or change to another currency?


some Ppl have murmured that non usd is faster but I haven't talked to anyone with concrete experience in recent weeks..  any thoughts?

thanks

I have several thousand in AUD sitting in the wire queue to Australia. It has been there for 6 weeks. So it is not just USD. I can tell you AUD wire from Gox is also stuffed. Gox have been saying it will come soon soon soon, but I no longer believe them. So much so that I have written that money off for tax purposes. I even asked them to cancel the wire, but they have not done so. I am pulling out of gox in BTC, keeping some, and selling some on the couple of places in Aus that allow me to buy/sell BTC (coinjar and bitcoinlocal are favs). Still it is a 5% to 10% loss on the value of the trade price of gox - but what else can you do.

[nolocimes]

hmm many thanks good to know.

no more business with gox.  they must be having problems with their jap bank and/ or liquidity as contrary to some naive comments on here there is absolutely no need for a us bank account to send wires in usd.

[smoothie]

Price gap is likely a product of a level of mistrust on gox being able to fulfill its financial obligations.

[lordgerson]

Price gap is likely a product of a level of mistrust on gox being able to fulfill its financial obligations.

Yes, correct, but I am trying to determine if the market depth (and specifically the rate of shrinkage in the sell queue of bitcoins on mtgox) is a good indicator of the actual failure of mtgox. Methinks that there is only about 60K bitcoins in the sell queue of mtgox, & that is a reasonable predictor of failure of mt gox in the next few weeks - basically they will run out of coins - panic sets in - gox goes over - hence the title.

Basically I am trying to predict **when** mtgox will fail. 

[Arros]

If looking at the order depth is a reliable way to predict future price, wouldn't that sound like too easy a method to make money? Real world traders will get very rich easily if that works.

[lordgerson]

If looking at the order depth is a reliable way to predict future price, wouldn't that sound like too easy a method to make money? Real world traders will get very rich easily if that works.

So far for BTC on gox, you could have got very rich on buying/selling BTC based on the direction in the change of market depth on gox. In the real world there are dark pools, so you cannot see the actual depth. Market depth on gox has been a very very good predictor of direction that BTC is about to go - or is going.  I almost made a bot to trade on that information (and other things) - still may if gox survives the next few weeks. 

Interestingly bitcoin is a very immature market. Most of the technical analysis stuff in textbooks no longer works in the real world (the market has become to efficient), however they do appear to still work on BTC (because of market immaturity).

[szikoh]

Take a look at volume in MTGOX. In usd it is something around 200 mil a month. The rest of exchanges are far away. Why MTGOX shall fail?
The only thing that is bad with them is the withdrawal time.

[Hfleer]

I think we've heard it said before, but what reason would anyone not have cleared out of that exchange a long time ago.

[nolocimes]

I'm with you.

I cancelled my withdrawal worth a support ticket.

only took 10 minutes to their credit.

I then bought coins and got them out immediately.

13 percent loss is far preferable to the counterparty risk  in my case.  others may have a different risk appetite.

it must be soul destroying for the gox team to watch their business disintegrate. if your business is coin and fiat exchange and you can't settle fiat..  you don't have a business.

[lordgerson]

I'm with you.

I cancelled my withdrawal worth a support ticket.

only took 10 minutes to their credit.

I then bought coins and got them out immediately.

13 percent loss is far preferable to the counterparty risk  in my case.  others may have a different risk appetite.

it must be soul destroying for the gox team to watch their business disintegrate. if your business is coin and fiat exchange and you can't settle fiat..  you don't have a business.

On the soul destroying : yes agree, I am fearfull that they will fail, but I really do not want them to. I have enjoyed trading with them over the last year or so - there support team has been pretty good. I would go back if they manage to sort this out.

Interesting that they allowed you to cancel your withdrawl, they told me that my money had been sent and was in transit - and could no longer cancel it. That was early last week. I may try again come monday.

[lordgerson]

Take a look at volume in MTGOX. In usd it is something around 200 mil a month. The rest of exchanges are far away. Why MTGOX shall fail?
The only thing that is bad with them is the withdrawal time.

That mtgox volume you speak of is the sound of a large number of people exiting gox any way they can. Back in Jan of this year I did a withdralw from gox to my bank account in Aus via wire, it took under 24 hours. I have a similar size one at the moment - I sent it in late June, it still has not turned up. I would be very carefull if using gox to sell bitcoins.

[Ego]

As Bitcoin continues to develop we will see people bringing out other exchanges and creating opportunity for people to trade at better rates and with potentially quicker turn around,
As that happens MtGox will ave to become better or fall behind as with all companies.

Ive never bought or sold through Gox I use them to keep an eye on the price however I use  a local exchange, local bit coins or people I meet at satoshi squares.

[Matthew_al]

I just use localbitcoins or blockchain.info - seems to work pretty well

[pitkaran]

There´s a local bitcoin "market" here in Finland that uses MtGox and Bitstamp.

It takes about 1-2 days for me to get my trade done using them (that means money on my bank account in 2 days).
They do take a small portion, but it´s usually worth not having to wait.

I don´t want to sound like I am advertising, so I will not say the name here:)

[lordgerson]

 

Gox ($119) now at 20% difference to Bitstampt ($98).
Coins in the sell queue on Gox = 50K.
Gox not looking good.

[bitbully]

Did anybody here have his mtgox withdrawal limits changed to 0 btc and $0 per 24hours!!!?!?! My account is fully verified it used to be $1,000 or 100 btc just a few days ago.

I have thousands worth of btc and dollars in my account and was about to withdraw btc just now when now my limits are showing 0, as in i can withdraw NOTHING!! What is going on here?

[zeroblock]

I'm with you.

I cancelled my withdrawal worth a support ticket.

only took 10 minutes to their credit.

I then bought coins and got them out immediately.

13 percent loss is far preferable to the counterparty risk  in my case.  others may have a different risk appetite.

it must be soul destroying for the gox team to watch their business disintegrate. if your business is coin and fiat exchange and you can't settle fiat..  you don't have a business.

On the soul destroying : yes agree, I am fearfull that they will fail, but I really do not want them to. I have enjoyed trading with them over the last year or so - there support team has been pretty good. I would go back if they manage to sort this out.

Interesting that they allowed you to cancel your withdrawl, they told me that my money had been sent and was in transit - and could no longer cancel it. That was early last week. I may try again come monday.

I am sorry to break this news, but if Gox won't let you cancel your wire, that means that your funds were seized.

[lordgerson]

I'm with you.

I cancelled my withdrawal worth a support ticket.

only took 10 minutes to their credit.

I then bought coins and got them out immediately.

13 percent loss is far preferable to the counterparty risk  in my case.  others may have a different risk appetite.

it must be soul destroying for the gox team to watch their business disintegrate. if your business is coin and fiat exchange and you can't settle fiat..  you don't have a business.

On the soul destroying : yes agree, I am fearfull that they will fail, but I really do not want them to. I have enjoyed trading with them over the last year or so - there support team has been pretty good. I would go back if they manage to sort this out.

Interesting that they allowed you to cancel your withdrawl, they told me that my money had been sent and was in transit - and could no longer cancel it. That was early last week. I may try again come monday.

I am sorry to break this news, but if Gox won't let you cancel your wire, that means that your funds were seized.

I am in Aus, the wire was between japan and australia. dwaolla siezure was in the US, my funds never went there. I am verified on gox, thus if funds were seized (by Japan or Aus governments), someone would have told me... Last time I looked, Aus & Japan do not have secret courts and secret laws - thats just for the USA.   

[lordgerson]

Did anybody here have his mtgox withdrawal limits changed to 0 btc and $0 per 24hours!!!?!?! My account is fully verified it used to be $1,000 or 100 btc just a few days ago.

I have thousands worth of btc and dollars in my account and was about to withdraw btc just now when now my limits are showing 0, as in i can withdraw NOTHING!! What is going on here?

https://i.imgur.com/4NshkYy.jpg

I am pulling out 2 x 100 coins a day out of gox (maximum allowed as verified). Just did my transaction for the day. It all went smooth. No hickups. So gox is still allowing us to remove coins.

Thus problem appears specific to you. That said their website is full of bugs, specifically browser bugs, you may want to try a different browser, there website likes ie more then ff or chrome.

[lordgerson]

really nice chart:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277554.msg2963755#msg2963755

[lordgerson]

And now gox has 33K coins in the sell list to $250. Halved in about 1 week.... Here we go...

[TheoryOfBitcoin]

Is there any evidence of this happening? Even through BitStamp is eating into gox's marketshare, I think if MtGox was insolvent there'd be significant repercussions for Bitcoin, and regulators trying to fiddle with it.

[zoro]

for whatever problem you may have with mtgox you should first sent them a support ticket.
They have very quick response times and all my issues were resolved in the past.
About the withdrawals i am using only SEPA, lately i was impressed since i had my 1000e in less that 2 weeks!
thus, i guess they are doing the best they can to support their customers in general.
For sure Bitstamp is more quicker (SEPA times less than 3 days!) without asking me any documents to sent them
but i wonder for how long
and be aware to use 2FA in every exchange you have a lot of money

[SeriousFace]

There are many posts about the arbitrage gap between the mtgox price and the price on other exchanges. This being caused by people trying to get there money outa gox by buying bitcoin and then selling the bitcoin on another exchange  (because gox customers have not been able wire transfers of fiat out of gox for some time).

I have been watching the market depth of the various bitcoin exchanges for some time. A few month back there were 200K+ coins in the sell queue at gox, this has slowly dropped to about 60K coins in the sell queue. On other exchanges (i.e. bitstamp) the sell queue is increasing.

I now think the miners (and anyone else with coins) is no longer sending them to gox to be sold. Thus gox is running out of coins (just like they have run outa fiat).

It looks to me to be coming to a head, I would guess that before the end of September (maybe sooner) gox will run out of coins. When this happens we would get an new all time high on gox of BTC. Basically BTC on MTGOX should go really high ($200+ per BTC). However every other exchange stays at about $100 BTC. All shit breaks loose at that point.

I notice a number of forex brokers are giving options/cfd's on the btc gox price. As long as the broker was sound, it may be time to take that bet.   

It could be that due to the rise in BTC there arent as many sellers believing that the price will continue to rise.

[lordgerson]

for whatever problem you may have with mtgox you should first sent them a support ticket.
They have very quick response times and all my issues were resolved in the past.
About the withdrawals i am using only SEPA, lately i was impressed since i had my 1000e in less that 2 weeks!
thus, i guess they are doing the best they can to support their customers in general.
For sure Bitstamp is more quicker (SEPA times less than 3 days!) without asking me any documents to sent them
but i wonder for how long
and be aware to use 2FA in every exchange you have a lot of money

Support ticket, lol, I put in a request for money in late June, many support tickets later gox has not yet sent me my money, lol support ticket, lol.

[marcovaldo]

I'm with you.

I cancelled my withdrawal worth a support ticket.

only took 10 minutes to their credit.

I then bought coins and got them out immediately.

13 percent loss is far preferable to the counterparty risk  in my case.  others may have a different risk appetite.

it must be soul destroying for the gox team to watch their business disintegrate. if your business is coin and fiat exchange and you can't settle fiat..  you don't have a business.

You are the reason why btc price increased recently. You and others who did the same.