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中国居民杠杆率高 已接近美国次贷危机前
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Topic: 中国居民杠杆率高 已接近美国次贷危机前 (Read 119 times)
SuperPROLg
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中国居民杠杆率高 已接近美国次贷危机前
January 17, 2018, 08:55:17 AM
#1
虽然北京当局一再称要“去杠杆”,但居民购房杠杆率之高,已接近美国次贷危机爆发前的水平。日前,大陆经济专家表示,居民的杠杆率上涨已是木已成舟,给金融系统埋下巨大隐患。
据《经济参考报》1月16日报导,2017年大陆房贷“量缩价涨”,今年房贷态势料将持续,居民去杠杆仍是调控重点。
近年来,中国的房贷利率呈直线上升。《2017年12月中国房贷市场报告》显示,2017年全国房屋(包括首套房和二手房)贷款平均利率呈现上升趋势,首套房贷款平均利率由年初的4.46%上涨至年末的5.38%,接近基准利率上浮10%的水平。
另有数据显示,去年11月中国首套房贷款平均利率为5.36%,相当于基准利率的1.09倍,同比前年11月上升逾20%。
此外,中国居民购房杠杆率较高。中国社科院此前发布的《中国住房发展报告(2017—2018)》显示,截至2016年底,中国居民购房抵押率升至50%,已经接近美国2007年次贷危机爆发前的水平。
大陆居民部门加杠杆空间被认为越来越有限。中国社会科学院城市与竞争力研究中心主任倪鹏飞说:“居民债务占居民可支配收入的比重已从2007年的不足35%,上涨至目前的90%,远远超出其它新兴经济体的水平。若考虑中国诸多的民间融资渠道,居民杠杆率恐更高。日本和美国分别于上世纪90年代初和90年代中后期经历房地产泡沫破裂时,居民债务占可支配收入比重分别为120%和130%,中国居民杠杆率已接近较危险的区间。”
中国的高杠杆问题与房地产市场关系密切,去杠杆要解决高房价的问题,但是中国的房价收入比一直居高。甚至有观点认为,中国经济已经被房地产市场绑架。
微信公众号“平说财经”日前撰文表示,由于国内的房价非理性上涨,全民都急着加杠杆购房。居民个人借道消费贷、首付贷、现金贷等个人信用贷款加杠杆购房的态势升温。
文章说,居民的杠杆率上涨已是木已成舟。中国居民的杠杆率由10年前的35%一下上升至90%,基本上等于居民的收入都拿去还房贷了,这给金融系统埋下巨大隐患。
文章认为,中国居民加杠杆的最主要用途是买房产,如果房价下跌,将可能出现金融机构资产负债表急速恶化并开始大规模收紧信贷,进而导致购房者普遍违约以及银行挤兑,引发金融风险。本来工薪收入多半交给了银行,房奴压缩开支过日子,现在房贷利率一下增加这么多,马上就会面临偿付的困难,弃房断供可能性在加大。
文章指出,近十年来,中国各部门都相继大幅增加了杠杆率。2008年受到金融危机影响,各地方政府开始加杠杆;2011年时,为防制造业衰退开始加杠杆;从2015年开始,中国居民部门的杠杆率呈现暴发式增长,高杠杆率将使中国经济隐患重重。
Tuofu1821
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Re: 中国居民杠杆率高 已接近美国次贷危机前
January 17, 2018, 07:48:30 PM
#2
次贷危机又是什么?
HAI11
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Re: 中国居民杠杆率高 已接近美国次贷危机前
January 18, 2018, 01:16:03 AM
#3
经济危机!!
dasdsaf54
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⇾
Re: 中国居民杠杆率高 已接近美国次贷危机前
January 18, 2018, 02:55:00 AM
#4
我胆小,不要吓我
HAI11
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Re: 中国居民杠杆率高 已接近美国次贷危机前
January 21, 2018, 10:58:41 AM
#5
我怕怕
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中国居民杠杆率高 已接近美国次贷危机前
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