I want to trust one of you who tells me, buy now and sell now. Nothing more.

[0xz[.]]

get a grasp on fundamental valuation, learn how to discern composite market sentiment, and trade on an intermediate-long time frame. Buy before the others buy and sell before the others sell.  The rest will come. Eventually you'll get the patterns, as long as you pay attention.

Emphasis added.

That's the hard part:  I do not know the future.

[1715274673]

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[1715274673]

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[Ardenyham]

get a grasp on fundamental valuation, learn how to discern composite market sentiment, and trade on an intermediate-long time frame. Buy before the others buy and sell before the others sell.  The rest will come. Eventually you'll get the patterns, as long as you pay attention.

Emphasis added.

That's the hard part:  I do not know the future.

You right, no one knows the future. It is about percentages, If your right more often than not you get profit.

[0xz[.]]

And keep in mind that only 20% win on the market. Which means that 80% loose.

The best move is not to play or invest. Buy&hold for 5 years. So far it's been very effective.

In five years we are probably already dead. Although you may not believe, this happens.
I hope and pray that you do not (of course).

[vokain]

get a grasp on fundamental valuation, learn how to discern composite market sentiment, and trade on an intermediate-long time frame. Buy before the others buy and sell before the others sell.  The rest will come. Eventually you'll get the patterns, as long as you pay attention.

Emphasis added.

That's the hard part:  I do not know the future.

Ride the wave but when things seem too polarized switch sides. But you're right, easier said than done. Worth trying though

[tampazeus]

And keep in mind that only 20% win on the market. Which means that 80% loose.

The best move is not to play or invest. Buy&hold for 5 years. So far it's been very effective.

In five years we are probably already dead. Although you may not believe, this happens.
I hope and pray that you do not (of course).

With this attitude, why do you care to increase amount of Bitcoins with daytrading 

[0xz[.]]

And keep in mind that only 20% win on the market. Which means that 80% loose.

The best move is not to play or invest. Buy&hold for 5 years. So far it's been very effective.

In five years we are probably already dead. Although you may not believe, this happens.
I hope and pray that you do not (of course).

With this attitude, why do you care to increase amount of Bitcoins with daytrading  

Because I hope to live at least one year.

[vokain]

And keep in mind that only 20% win on the market. Which means that 80% loose.

The best move is not to play or invest. Buy&hold for 5 years. So far it's been very effective.

In five years we are probably already dead. Although you may not believe, this happens.
I hope and pray that you do not (of course).

With this attitude, why do you care to increase amount of Bitcoins with daytrading  

Because I hope to live at least one year.

Day traders don't exactly "live"

[0xz[.]]

And keep in mind that only 20% win on the market. Which means that 80% loose.

The best move is not to play or invest. Buy&hold for 5 years. So far it's been very effective.

In five years we are probably already dead. Although you may not believe, this happens.
I hope and pray that you do not (of course).

With this attitude, why do you care to increase amount of Bitcoins with daytrading  

Because I hope to live at least one year.

Day traders don't exactly "live"

But the Day traders can hit more. It is absolutely impossible to know what will happen in 5 years. But yes, you can know more or less what will happen tomorrow.

[vokain]

Wrong paradigm to have. Please reconsider. Trading isn't as random as you may be led to believe. It's less and less stochastic the more you zoom out.  Day trading however will kill your capital, just from commissions alone. Have fun figuring out a way to mechanically be greater than 50% right including commission. There is an art to knowing what side to be on in a market. Identifying that side on an intermediate-long term time frame will be your best friend.

[joesmoe2012]

Wrong paradigm to have. Please reconsider. Trading isn't as random as you may be led to believe. It's less and less stochastic the more you zoom out.  Day trading however will kill your capital, just from commissions alone. Have fun figuring out a way to mechanically be greater than 50% right including commission. There is an art to knowing what side to be on in a market. Identifying that side on an intermediate-long term time frame will be your best friend.

Not true. Many traders lose 60-70% of their trades by number but make a majority of their profit on the fewer, but more lucrative trades. This is one of the reasons why one needs to fully understand limit orders and stop loss orders.

If you minimize your loss potential but have unlimited upside potential on every trade, you will eventually hit a couple of them. It's all about minimizing risk (I suggest a read of goombo's thread, though he trades using TA system, many of his principles are relevant to all types of day/swing/etc trading).

Best of luck

[bitcon]

Smoothie 

^this.   buy and hold!

[randrace]

doobadoo!!!

[0xz[.]]

doobadoo!!!

Thanks randrace. ¡This is very good!

Then... who do you trust?

[afbitcoins]

Trust yourself. It is a lottery to pick someone to trust. Decide wether you yourself think bitcoins will rise long term. If you can reach that conclusion then the buy and hold strategy is by far the safest, you'll need plenty of patience to hold long term though.

[0xz[.]]

Trust yourself. It is a lottery to pick someone to trust. Decide wether you yourself think bitcoins will rise long term. If you can reach that conclusion then the buy and hold strategy is by far the safest, you'll need plenty of patience to hold long term though.

There is people  knows to trade and is able to earn money. I trust the qualities of BTC but also want to make money. I want to join someone who  knows  get more performance out capital.

[RationalSpeculator]

Trust yourself. It is a lottery to pick someone to trust. Decide wether you yourself think bitcoins will rise long term. If you can reach that conclusion then the buy and hold strategy is by far the safest, you'll need plenty of patience to hold long term though.

Buy and hold does require a lot of patience, resolve and character that many fail to execute. The profits you make with buy and hold are sometimes euphoric as you haven't sold a single coin, making you considerably richer, and tempting one to buy even more on highs. Inversely the losses are sometimes enormous too, as not a single coin was sold on the high, shrinking ones capital dramatically and tempting one to sell on lows 'to at least have something left if it fails' . Depending on your entry point a buy and hold may end up showing a serious loss for over a year too. I strongly suspect that on average those that choose for a buy and hold tend to make less returns than a buy and hold would have offered due to the enormous volatility of their capital and the resulting emotional rollercoaster. 

Hence why I think a fixed allocation strategy is a better solution for most. Instead of allocating all the reserved bitcoin capital immediately. Allocate only say 75% and keep 25% in cash. If price goes up and your bitcoins become more than 75% while your cash becomes less than 25%, sell some so that you remain with 25% cash. If price goes down, and your cash becomes bigger than 25% and bitcoin less than 75%, buy some btc so that it's balanced again. This way you are forced to sell on highs, and forced to buy on lows. Even if you don't always execute this strategy as greed and fear take you over, at least you won't do the inverse! Your end result will be that your ride up and down is less volatile, and your profits will likely be higher than a buy and hold.

[0xz[.]]

Trust yourself. It is a lottery to pick someone to trust. Decide wether you yourself think bitcoins will rise long term. If you can reach that conclusion then the buy and hold strategy is by far the safest, you'll need plenty of patience to hold long term though.

Buy and hold does require a lot of patience, resolve and character that many fail to execute. The profits you make with buy and hold are sometimes euphoric as you haven't sold a single coin, making you considerably richer, and tempting one to buy even more on highs. Inversely the losses are sometimes enormous too, as not a single coin was sold on the high, shrinking ones capital dramatically and tempting one to sell on lows 'to at least have something left if it fails' . Depending on your entry point a buy and hold may end up showing a serious loss for over a year too. I strongly suspect that on average those that choose for a buy and hold tend to make less returns than a buy and hold would have offered due to the enormous volatility of their capital and the resulting emotional rollercoaster.  

Hence why I think a fixed allocation strategy is a better solution for most. Instead of allocating all the reserved bitcoin capital immediately. Allocate only say 75% and keep 25% in cash. If price goes up and your bitcoins become more than 75% while your cash becomes less than 25%, sell some so that you remain with 25% cash. If price goes down, and your cash becomes bigger than 25% and bitcoin less than 75%, buy some btc so that it's balanced again. This way you are forced to sell on highs, and forced to buy on lows. Even if you don't always execute this strategy as greed and fear take you over, at least you won't do the inverse! Your end result will be that your ride up and down is less volatile, and your profits will likely be higher than a buy and hold.

¡ Wow. Extremely interesting strategy !

[BombaUcigasa]

Don't trust people, trust computers.

[RationalSpeculator]

Trust yourself. It is a lottery to pick someone to trust. Decide wether you yourself think bitcoins will rise long term. If you can reach that conclusion then the buy and hold strategy is by far the safest, you'll need plenty of patience to hold long term though.

Buy and hold does require a lot of patience, resolve and character that many fail to execute. The profits you make with buy and hold are sometimes euphoric as you haven't sold a single coin, making you considerably richer, and tempting one to buy even more on highs. Inversely the losses are sometimes enormous too, as not a single coin was sold on the high, shrinking ones capital dramatically and tempting one to sell on lows 'to at least have something left if it fails' . Depending on your entry point a buy and hold may end up showing a serious loss for over a year too. I strongly suspect that on average those that choose for a buy and hold tend to make less returns than a buy and hold would have offered due to the enormous volatility of their capital and the resulting emotional rollercoaster.  

Hence why I think a fixed allocation strategy is a better solution for most. Instead of allocating all the reserved bitcoin capital immediately. Allocate only say 75% and keep 25% in cash. If price goes up and your bitcoins become more than 75% while your cash becomes less than 25%, sell some so that you remain with 25% cash. If price goes down, and your cash becomes bigger than 25% and bitcoin less than 75%, buy some btc so that it's balanced again. This way you are forced to sell on highs, and forced to buy on lows. Even if you don't always execute this strategy as greed and fear take you over, at least you won't do the inverse! Your end result will be that your ride up and down is less volatile, and your profits will likely be higher than a buy and hold.

¡ Wow. Extremely interesting strategy !

Thanks

It worked wonders for me.

The only tricky thing is to decide how much of your capital you want to allocate to bitcoin.

I chose for 30% long term. However I added something extra. If price is relatively expensive (meaning price is above the 200 day moving average) I want a lower exposure than my long term target of 30%, if price is relatively cheap (below the 200 day moving average) I want a higher exposure than my long term target of 30%.

Currently my exposure is 20%, 16% to btc and 4% cash on the exchange (meaning I chose 80%/20% btc/cash) because the price ($104) is currently above the 200 day moving average ($86), so relatively expensive. If price goes down I am not only buying more to balance my 80/20, but also to raise my current 20% exposure to 30% and possibly even 40% if price goes considerably below the 200 day moving average.  

This is basically a turbo put on the strategy so that you end up selling even more as it goes up, and buying even more as it goes down.

I plan to continue this strategy for the time being as chances are low we go up soon. However once you go into a parabolic rise this strategy leads you to sell too many bitcoins too soon. So there are times where you want to change to a buy and hold, letting your bitcoins grow to possibly 90% of your capital, and only reactivate the strategy when the parabolic rise is starting to become dangerous.

So during the rise from $13 to $266 this year I only sold some bitcoin at $70, but realized it was not smart as chances were high we would go into a mania like 2011, so I stopped selling and only relaunched the strategy when we went over $150. Even then I didn't stick to the plan and was selling to keep it down to 30% of my capital but I should have reduced to 15% because the price was historically high above the 200 day moving average. I didn't and lost some great profits due to this. But still my return on bitcoin since the start of the year is 1050% whereas a buy and hold has earned 'only' 650%. (Yeah, never expected to have to say 'only' 650% in my investing career )

[0xz[.]]

Don't trust people, trust computers.

Which one? mine say me nothing.