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ummina
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August 04, 2015, 04:18:53 PM
 #41

well... i think bitcoin like a magnet shipon visitor, and interest to join it.
very interesting for me, we can make money from here...
and if we can use easily and continue, this is very funny, and like a chat. just like that.
the money we can make very much if we get the positions up like Legendary "oh my god" the payment may be very much...
but if like me still little. just make it make it and make it,,, never no.... fight to try and try never give up.
you can get happynes in the end.

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August 04, 2015, 06:34:31 PM
 #42

There are two problems:

1. Price depends on supply and demand, and you cannot predict what might happen to the price without knowing what will happen to both supply and demand. Furthermore, you can't assume that demand will rise constantly. It is possible for demand to fall even as adoption rises.

2. You are confused about the meanings of the word "supply". "Supply" as in "money supply" is not the same as "supply" as in "supply and demand". The money supply is the total number of bitcoins in existence. It effects the supply (as in supply and demand) in the market, but is not the same thing. Furthermore, supply and demand are curves, not numbers. The price is at their intersection.

It does not matter what is the definition of supply, there are 5000 coins net sell every day on market, that is calculated after considering several facts getting from poll. There is larger transaction volume daily, but those are day traders and short term speculators, basically the buying and selling volume cancel each other, only the net sell amount matters

In fact the total money supply in bitcoin is irrelevant, because many of them does not exist in circulation. It's the money in circulation matters. FED printed 5x USD but the money in circulation remains the same, that's the reason the USD did not crash in value by 5x

As analyzed, if the demand falls, the first thing we will notice is that the mining difficulty will go down. Because mining is the lowest cost to get bitcoin constantly, serious investors will always first seek large mining operation, if they can not get coin through mining, they will consider buying on open market. That is the reason when ASIC arrives, suddenly many investors lost the ability to get coin from mining, thus they all went to market to purchase, and made the price rise 10 fold

So far the mining difficulty is still rising, means the demand is still strong. If difficulty jumps up, then it means the demand is extremely strong


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August 04, 2015, 11:10:36 PM
 #43

There are two problems:

1. Price depends on supply and demand, and you cannot predict what might happen to the price without knowing what will happen to both supply and demand. Furthermore, you can't assume that demand will rise constantly. It is possible for demand to fall even as adoption rises.

2. You are confused about the meanings of the word "supply". "Supply" as in "money supply" is not the same as "supply" as in "supply and demand". The money supply is the total number of bitcoins in existence. It effects the supply (as in supply and demand) in the market, but is not the same thing. Furthermore, supply and demand are curves, not numbers. The price is at their intersection.

This is correct, and the vision that bitcoin will appreciate forever, also depends on that market actors (everybody) regard bitcoin as the best money. Otherwise, it will not happen.

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August 05, 2015, 04:05:26 AM
 #44

There are two problems:

1. Price depends on supply and demand, and you cannot predict what might happen to the price without knowing what will happen to both supply and demand. Furthermore, you can't assume that demand will rise constantly. It is possible for demand to fall even as adoption rises.

2. You are confused about the meanings of the word "supply". "Supply" as in "money supply" is not the same as "supply" as in "supply and demand". The money supply is the total number of bitcoins in existence. It effects the supply (as in supply and demand) in the market, but is not the same thing. Furthermore, supply and demand are curves, not numbers. The price is at their intersection.

This is correct, and the vision that bitcoin will appreciate forever, also depends on that market actors (everybody) regard bitcoin as the best money. Otherwise, it will not happen.

Only English people using Pound is enough to support its value, similarly, only IT interested/Libertarian/Austrian economists giving bitcoin strong support can maintain its value. For merchants, it is so easy to accept international payment with bitcoin, just download an app. It has not gained enough traction because of its volatility, it takes time for people to get rid of their fear towards new things

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August 05, 2015, 04:25:14 AM
 #45

There are two problems:

1. Price depends on supply and demand, and you cannot predict what might happen to the price without knowing what will happen to both supply and demand. Furthermore, you can't assume that demand will rise constantly. It is possible for demand to fall even as adoption rises.

2. You are confused about the meanings of the word "supply". "Supply" as in "money supply" is not the same as "supply" as in "supply and demand". The money supply is the total number of bitcoins in existence. It effects the supply (as in supply and demand) in the market, but is not the same thing. Furthermore, supply and demand are curves, not numbers. The price is at their intersection.

This is correct, and the vision that bitcoin will appreciate forever, also depends on that market actors (everybody) regard bitcoin as the best money. Otherwise, it will not happen.

Only English people using Pound is enough to support its value, similarly, only IT interested/Libertarian/Austrian economists giving bitcoin strong support can maintain its value. For merchants, it is so easy to accept international payment with bitcoin, just download an app. It has not gained enough traction because of its volatility, it takes time for people to get rid of their fear towards new things

when you speak of not attracting new users based on volatility.. are you expecting minimum like 1k like we did see fake value with mt.gox

i know I got in it cause there was no option of making money and another form to get cash.

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August 05, 2015, 04:38:59 AM
 #46


As analyzed, if the demand falls, the first thing we will notice is that the mining difficulty will go down. Because mining is the lowest cost to get bitcoin constantly, serious investors will always first seek large mining operation, if they can not get coin through mining, they will consider buying on open market. That is the reason when ASIC arrives, suddenly many investors lost the ability to get coin from mining, thus they all went to market to purchase, and made the price rise 10 fold

So far the mining difficulty is still rising, means the demand is still strong. If difficulty jumps up, then it means the demand is extremely strong

The difficulty depends on the price (w.r.t the cost of mining). The price depends on both supply and demand. Therefore, demand can be lower when the difficulty rises and vice versa.

Higher price will raise the difficulty since it created speculative mining demand - make a quick buck with mining, that is also a demand. Speculation demand is always part of the bitcoin demand, but it changes with price, not like other demands. Currently we are in a low volatility period, thus speculative demand is at its minimum. If the speculative demand is dropping while difficulty is rising, then you know there are some other type of demand quietly driving the difficulty up. Because the supply of bitcoin on market is very easy to estimate, that makes the demand the only variable that can affect price, and demand is very easy to spot through difficulty, which makes it extremely simple to model the future valuation

By the way, money's value is decided by a consensus, supply and demand theory never works on money, because money can be regarded as having infinite demand, thus any change in supply will not affect money's value. This seems start to apply to bitcoin too: Bitcoin's demand can be very very high, but its value is not really decided by supply and demand, but by a consensus, around the mining cost, similar to gold



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August 05, 2015, 04:47:27 AM
 #47

There are two problems:

1. Price depends on supply and demand, and you cannot predict what might happen to the price without knowing what will happen to both supply and demand. Furthermore, you can't assume that demand will rise constantly. It is possible for demand to fall even as adoption rises.

2. You are confused about the meanings of the word "supply". "Supply" as in "money supply" is not the same as "supply" as in "supply and demand". The money supply is the total number of bitcoins in existence. It effects the supply (as in supply and demand) in the market, but is not the same thing. Furthermore, supply and demand are curves, not numbers. The price is at their intersection.

This is correct, and the vision that bitcoin will appreciate forever, also depends on that market actors (everybody) regard bitcoin as the best money. Otherwise, it will not happen.

Only English people using Pound is enough to support its value, similarly, only IT interested/Libertarian/Austrian economists giving bitcoin strong support can maintain its value. For merchants, it is so easy to accept international payment with bitcoin, just download an app. It has not gained enough traction because of its volatility, it takes time for people to get rid of their fear towards new things

when you speak of not attracting new users based on volatility.. are you expecting minimum like 1k like we did see fake value with mt.gox

i know I got in it cause there was no option of making money and another form to get cash.

1k was an overshoot of the speculative bubble top. Long term wise, the coin value should be close to its mining cost, which should rise over time if there is no major disaster in bitcoin ecosystem

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August 05, 2015, 10:47:40 AM
 #48


As analyzed, if the demand falls, the first thing we will notice is that the mining difficulty will go down. Because mining is the lowest cost to get bitcoin constantly, serious investors will always first seek large mining operation, if they can not get coin through mining, they will consider buying on open market. That is the reason when ASIC arrives, suddenly many investors lost the ability to get coin from mining, thus they all went to market to purchase, and made the price rise 10 fold

So far the mining difficulty is still rising, means the demand is still strong. If difficulty jumps up, then it means the demand is extremely strong

The difficulty depends on the price (w.r.t the cost of mining). The price depends on both supply and demand. Therefore, demand can be lower when the difficulty rises and vice versa.

Higher price will raise the difficulty since it created speculative mining demand - make a quick buck with mining, that is also a demand. Speculation demand is always part of the bitcoin demand, but it changes with price, not like other demands. Currently we are in a low volatility period, thus speculative demand is at its minimum. If the speculative demand is dropping while difficulty is rising, then you know there are some other type of demand quietly driving the difficulty up. Because the supply of bitcoin on market is very easy to estimate, that makes the demand the only variable that can affect price, and demand is very easy to spot through difficulty, which makes it extremely simple to model the future valuation

By the way, money's value is decided by a consensus, supply and demand theory never works on money, because money can be regarded as having infinite demand, thus any change in supply will not affect money's value. This seems start to apply to bitcoin too: Bitcoin's demand can be very very high, but its value is not really decided by supply and demand, but by a consensus, around the mining cost, similar to gold


No no. Since there is no production (in principle) and no consumption (the money just moves from one owner to another ad infinitum), the demand is only demand to hold the money in the reserve. (For consumable commodities, think of reserve demand as a large heap of iron ore in front of a steel factory, the reserve is grown when the ore seems cheap to the steel-maker, and reduced when he envisions a lower price in the future).

The demand to hold money in reserve is the only reason to hold money, and the supply is other people running down their reserves for any reason. By trading against something else, price pairs are discovered. The reasons behind the supply and demand, respectively,  is basically the same, only inversed. The actual amount each market actor wants to hold, depends on everything, and changes continually.




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August 05, 2015, 12:09:04 PM
 #49



No no. Since there is no production (in principle) and no consumption (the money just moves from one owner to another ad infinitum), the demand is only demand to hold the money in the reserve. (For consumable commodities, think of reserve demand as a large heap of iron ore in front of a steel factory, the reserve is grown when the ore seems cheap to the steel-maker, and reduced when he envisions a lower price in the future).

The demand to hold money in reserve is the only reason to hold money, and the supply is other people running down their reserves for any reason. By trading against something else, price pairs are discovered. The reasons behind the supply and demand, respectively,  is basically the same, only inversed. The actual amount each market actor wants to hold, depends on everything, and changes continually.


you can't exchange iron ore for anything else except money, but with money you can exchange anything, the liquidity preference is different. If you produce 5x more iron ore, most likely the price will crash to 1/5, but FED has proved that printing 5x more USD will not affect its value

The demand for money can be driven by many psychological cause, most notably purchasing of high valued goods and building a safety net for future. Nothing prevent everyone from accumulating 1 billion dollar and do nothing with those money: A large amount of reserve just increase the feeling of safety dramatically and positively affect their mental status, even most of the consumptions in today's life is already enough good and cheap

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August 07, 2015, 04:55:54 PM
 #50


you can't exchange iron ore for anything else except money,


Who is going to stop me?  We trade what we like, that is a fact.      

Quote

but with money you can exchange anything,

However there is no -guarantee- of a willing exchanger for any good, no matter whether you choose to call that good money or not.  How is this not obvious?  

Quote

the liquidity preference is different. If you produce 5x more iron ore, most likely the price will crash to 1/5, but FED has proved that printing 5x more USD will not affect its value


??  I'm not sure I follow you here.  We don't know how much USD has been issued, nobody does.  All we know is since the FED took over the value of a USD has dropped to well under 1% of its previous value vs. gold or oil or housing or food or clothing.  

Quote

The demand for money can be driven by many psychological cause, most notably purchasing of high valued goods and building a safety net for future. Nothing prevent everyone from accumulating 1 billion dollar and do nothing with those money: A large amount of reserve just increase the feeling of safety dramatically and positively affect their mental status, even most of the consumptions in today's life is already enough good and cheap

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August 08, 2015, 12:51:20 AM
 #51


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but with money you can exchange anything,

However there is no -guarantee- of a willing exchanger for any good, no matter whether you choose to call that good money or not.  How is this not obvious?  

Each fiat money is a guarantee of exchanging any good in that specific country, I would like to see the future where people refuse to accept their domestic fiat money because it is created out of nothing, but that is not the case right now, 99% of people (including many famous entrepreneurs) have zero knowledge about fiat money, they are all playing the bank's fiat money game without understanding how the game is designed

Quote

the liquidity preference is different. If you produce 5x more iron ore, most likely the price will crash to 1/5, but FED has proved that printing 5x more USD will not affect its value


??  I'm not sure I follow you here.  We don't know how much USD has been issued, nobody does.  All we know is since the FED took over the value of a USD has dropped to well under 1% of its previous value vs. gold or oil or housing or food or clothing.  


Yes, USD has dropped 99% of its value since 100 years ago, but the USD supply has increased much more than 1000 times, so the value does not drop enough fast with the supply. 99% of people are short sighted, if a currency drops in value by even 5% per year, most of the people just don't care, as long as their income is enough to deal with the living expense. They maybe complain the rising living cost, but they won't take any action. Only Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation that increase the money supply by 10 fold in a month will cause a currency to fail

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August 08, 2015, 02:32:47 AM
 #52

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Why bitcoin will appreciate forever

1. Fiat supply (debt-backed money) is required to be inflated to infinity to support itself, otherwise the system will crumble. If there is 100 trillion debt, 100 trillion money and 5% interest, you need another 5% of the money supply (5 trillion extra) to repay the debt = new money needs to be created to keep the debt serviced. Compound interest effect has a "compound" effect in the fiat money supply. The ratio of fiat supply:btc supply is ensuring the long-term appreciation of BTC, but it'll take a while longer in order for BTC's inflation to slow down a bit.

2. Gold/silver output is also getting inflated by new mining output. While it may be better compared to fiat, it still has uncertainties in its inflation model like "what if a large gold deposit is found that is a game changer" or what happens if new mining techniques increase the output dramatically.

In light of the above two, I believe it's hardly relevant whether people cash out or not as the existing maximum supply is fixed for BTC. Sure, if someone cashes out a million coins it can have a bearish effect on price, but in the long run it won't matter that much.
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August 08, 2015, 06:52:30 AM
 #53

I was wondering if there actually is a good source to 'measure' Bitcoin popularity and to figure out at what kind of rate new users are coming in approximately?
Have not yet seen any figures that I would trust.


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August 08, 2015, 09:38:57 AM
 #54

I was wondering if there actually is a good source to 'measure' Bitcoin popularity and to figure out at what kind of rate new users are coming in approximately?
Have not yet seen any figures that I would trust.

There are some hard statistics from the blockchain, like number of transactions and the number of unspent outputs. Currently unspent outputs is at 32 million. That could mean the number of users are somewhere between 1 and 10 million. But it turns out that some people never redraw coins from the exchange where they bought them. Maybe it is too difficult or risky, or they just don't know it is possible, living with a fiat/stockbroker mindset.

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August 08, 2015, 10:45:41 AM
 #55


Quote

but with money you can exchange anything,

However there is no -guarantee- of a willing exchanger for any good, no matter whether you choose to call that good money or not.  How is this not obvious?  

Each fiat money is a guarantee of exchanging any good in that specific country, I would like to see the future where people refuse to accept their domestic fiat money because it is created out of nothing, but that is not the case right now, 99% of people (including many famous entrepreneurs) have zero knowledge about fiat money, they are all playing the bank's fiat money game without understanding how the game is designed


Thanks for your reply. 
OK then, 20$ for your daughter.  Guaranteed you said.  JK of course.  First of all whether the cost of production of the currency is zero (definition of fiat) or not doesn't matter.  There is NEVER a guarantee that anybody will trade you anything for anything else.  Even legal tender laws only disincentivise folks to accept a given tender as repayment of debts, not as trade for whatever thing you might be interested in.   

Quote
Quote

the liquidity preference is different. If you produce 5x more iron ore, most likely the price will crash to 1/5, but FED has proved that printing 5x more USD will not affect its value


??  I'm not sure I follow you here.  We don't know how much USD has been issued, nobody does.  All we know is since the FED took over the value of a USD has dropped to well under 1% of its previous value vs. gold or oil or housing or food or clothing.  


Yes, USD has dropped 99% of its value since 100 years ago, but the USD supply has increased much more than 1000 times, so the value does not drop enough fast with the supply. 99% of people are short sighted, if a currency drops in value by even 5% per year, most of the people just don't care, as long as their income is enough to deal with the living expense. They maybe complain the rising living cost, but they won't take any action. Only Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation that increase the money supply by 10 fold in a month will cause a currency to fail

I'm curious why you are so confident that the USD supply has increased so much more than it's market value would imply.  For me, I have no information about the USD supply other than what markets tell me.  Yes I am aware that markets are delayed in their reaction to printing events, so in general your hypothesis is in the right direction, but as to the factor concerned - I am ignorant. 

 


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August 08, 2015, 11:33:32 AM
 #56

[...]
Yes, USD has dropped 99% of its value since 100 years ago, but the USD supply has increased much more than 1000 times,
[...]

(I had to crop the quote, I wanted to address only this point)

I have no idea if your numbers are correct, but if they are:

We know that the consequence of increasing the money quantity has effect on prices, more money means higher prices, but there is a delay. When money is printed and are still in the basement of the central bank, and it is unknown to the public, there is no price rise, but when the money is distributed, it will rise prices, first on the products that are bought by the state, then the products that are bought by the vendors to the state and so on, until they are evenly spread out, which can take ten years or more.

So when he money quantity have risen 1000 times, but prices only 100 times (your numbers), the prices may rise in the future, eventually up to 1000 times, or 10 times more than today, don't you think? How long time will it take, will it be quicker? Money printing is still going on, not?




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August 09, 2015, 01:06:45 AM
 #57

I was wondering if there actually is a good source to 'measure' Bitcoin popularity and to figure out at what kind of rate new users are coming in approximately?
Have not yet seen any figures that I would trust.

Determining such a number is not yet so easy, limiting us to work with very few options. Even with the help of statistics, its accuracy is still something which we need to figure out from every individual. The best way to know how many people are using bitcoins is having at he mass survey, or ask them personally about a vote-down, etc. So what is your final choice anyway?
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August 09, 2015, 02:46:55 AM
 #58

I was wondering if there actually is a good source to 'measure' Bitcoin popularity and to figure out at what kind of rate new users are coming in approximately?
Have not yet seen any figures that I would trust.

Determining such a number is not yet so easy, limiting us to work with very few options. Even with the help of statistics, its accuracy is still something which we need to figure out from every individual. The best way to know how many people are using bitcoins is having at he mass survey, or ask them personally about a vote-down, etc. So what is your final choice anyway?

A mass survey would be good, but I eye methodical problems, because there are differences in adoption per country, line of business (IT), social rong, and political (the statists are eagerly uninterested). Even asking everyone, could pose problems, since there would be communication problems.


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August 09, 2015, 05:33:16 AM
 #59

I was wondering if there actually is a good source to 'measure' Bitcoin popularity and to figure out at what kind of rate new users are coming in approximately?
Have not yet seen any figures that I would trust.

Determining such a number is not yet so easy, limiting us to work with very few options. Even with the help of statistics, its accuracy is still something which we need to figure out from every individual. The best way to know how many people are using bitcoins is having at he mass survey, or ask them personally about a vote-down, etc. So what is your final choice anyway?

A mass survey would be good, but I eye methodical problems, because there are differences in adoption per country, line of business (IT), social rong, and political (the statists are eagerly uninterested). Even asking everyone, could pose problems, since there would be communication problems.



So do you think there is any way right now or maybe in future to know how many people currently use bitcoin? Knowing their value and their possession or even their identity is not the motive, finding out the true number of users is the only motive. I was thinking of a poll which collaborates with wallet providing websites but I don't think anybody will care to fill, and we can't force users. Also, who knows they might put false data too.
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August 09, 2015, 05:36:19 AM
 #60

I was wondering if there actually is a good source to 'measure' Bitcoin popularity and to figure out at what kind of rate new users are coming in approximately?
Have not yet seen any figures that I would trust.

Determining such a number is not yet so easy, limiting us to work with very few options. Even with the help of statistics, its accuracy is still something which we need to figure out from every individual. The best way to know how many people are using bitcoins is having at he mass survey, or ask them personally about a vote-down, etc. So what is your final choice anyway?

A mass survey would be good, but I eye methodical problems, because there are differences in adoption per country, line of business (IT), social rong, and political (the statists are eagerly uninterested). Even asking everyone, could pose problems, since there would be communication problems.



So do you think there is any way right now or maybe in future to know how many people currently use bitcoin? Knowing their value and their possession or even their identity is not the motive, finding out the true number of users is the only motive. I was thinking of a poll which collaborates with wallet providing websites but I don't think anybody will care to fill, and we can't force users. Also, who knows they might put false data too.

I think the price reveals the combination of number of users and their eagerness to hold. Maybe that is the number you want to predict, so that doesn't work.

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