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Author Topic: hmm mining profitability this year? Will it drop like oil price?We need an OPEC?  (Read 875 times)
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January 19, 2018, 03:19:50 AM
Merited by ibminer (1)
 #1

In 2017, btc rose from 1k to about 20k, about 20 times. Mining difficulty rose alot.

This year, avalon and ebit will release newer stronger models for btc. Bitmain still sells S9 as normal.
Thus, we should expect mining difficulty to increase abit more than usual due to the stronger models.


That being said, it is very unlikely that bitcoin will rise 20 times this year again but it is likely that the machines will still be sold by manufacurers for profit.

Thus, btc mining might turn unprpfitable later in the year or give very low profit.....kinda like the D3 and kinda like wat happen to OIL prices when shale oil producers pumped out too much oil.


As a miner, I really hope to be wrong. What do u guys think?

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January 19, 2018, 06:35:02 AM
Merited by ibminer (1)
 #2

BTC mining difficulty will keep skyrocketing. Mining at home will be hard to get back your BTC investment on miners starting this year. If BTC fiat price goes through the roof like in 2017, mining makes (a lot of) profit in terms of fiat. My two cents: BTC mining has become arm race among big mining farms with nearly free electricity, and individuals hold your BTC.

There is no such thing as free electricity though.

The thing is bitcoin mining is small compared to other industries. If big companies juz come in with abit more capital, it is possible for mining to be u profitable even for everyone, even with free electricity. News sources have added too much hype and interest into mining.

For big miners, wouldnt it be in their best interest to make 300 dollars per machine rather than 50-100 dollars per machine??
There will make alot more.

Thus, bitmain/canaan avalon/ebit should sit down and talk about how to not release too many machines (limit supply), rather than all 3 release so many that everyone earns alot less....including bitmain/canaan/ebit who are big miners themselves yes. They need to come together and make a cartel, like how OPEC did in the oil industry to control profits....and i hope they dont forget the to sell to the small miners too. In any case, I dont see how it can work out if they keep attracting more companies to come in. Btc mining has a low barrier to entry and almost every company out there can do it if they want to.

I hope to be wrong though. It might be best that they create a btc mining cartel.

Just my 2 cents

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January 19, 2018, 07:27:56 PM
Merited by Druiz287 (1)
 #3

In general, cartel's only work when there is no good substitute for a product that folks need or want.  For most of the world, Bitcoin isn't an actual factor in their lives. If the entire Bitcoin industry evaporated overnight, the overall effect on the world would me minuscule. OPEC was able to control a product for which there was no viable substitute, at that time. Fast forward some 45 years, and you find that OPEC doesn't have nearly the control they once did.

I realize that for some folks on these forums, Bitcoin is their livelihood, but they have to realize that their "product" (i.e. mining) is more akin to a commodity (lots of alternatives), or possible a luxury good (i.e. the FOMO crowd).

I wonder if there was ever a thought given to a "Tulip growers cartel" back a few hundred years ago?
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January 19, 2018, 10:30:25 PM
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In general, cartel's only work when there is no good substitute for a product that folks need or want.  For most of the world, Bitcoin isn't an actual factor in their lives. If the entire Bitcoin industry evaporated overnight, the overall effect on the world would me minuscule. OPEC was able to control a product for which there was no viable substitute, at that time. Fast forward some 45 years, and you find that OPEC doesn't have nearly the control they once did.

I realize that for some folks on these forums, Bitcoin is their livelihood, but they have to realize that their "product" (i.e. mining) is more akin to a commodity (lots of alternatives), or possible a luxury good (i.e. the FOMO crowd).

I wonder if there was ever a thought given to a "Tulip growers cartel" back a few hundred years ago?

Yes, bitcoin is not essential in people's lives. But that doesnt matter here.....

Cartels will work here because there are only 3 major manufacturers. Limiting supply via a cartel would mean controlling difficulty and thus, profitability for miners.

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January 19, 2018, 10:40:48 PM
Merited by ibminer (1)
 #5

Bitmain - they are rogue and hate Bitcoin. They love their Bcash token instead. They don't have Bitcoin future in high regard. They can rather sabotage Bitcoin and let it tank than help it.
Bitfury - they don't sell their miners to the public, they are secretive, very unlikely they will create cartel with Bitmain and others, why would they change their policy?
Canaan - I can see them actually cooperating with someone else
Pangolinminer, Halong Mining, Ebit - new companies, rising fast, I can see them easily doing deal with other manufacturers for mutual benefit.

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January 20, 2018, 01:37:53 PM
Merited by ibminer (1)
 #6

Thus, bitmain/canaan avalon/ebit should sit down and talk about how to not release too many machines (limit supply), rather than all 3 release so many that everyone earns alot less....including bitmain/canaan/ebit who are big miners themselves yes. They need to come together and make a cartel, like how OPEC did in the oil industry to control profits....and i hope they dont forget the to sell to the small miners too. In any case, I dont see how it can work out if they keep attracting more companies to come in. Btc mining has a low barrier to entry and almost every company out there can do it if they want to.

I hope to be wrong though. It might be best that they create a btc mining cartel.

Just my 2 cents

I'm reading this and I might start pinching myself.For real?

We have solved all problems not what is left to do is creating a mining cartel and restrict access to miners?
No offense, but are you out of your mind?
Is not enough that bitmain sometimes acts like it's in competition with the ten plagues of Egypt now we should encourage them?

The difference between OPEC and bitmain&co is huge.
First, those were countries these are companies.  A private company is interested only in profits they don't care one bit about the policies of the government and their strategies.
Second, OPEC was about oil, no matter what Japan might have tried they just couldn't produce oil.
When it comes to asics, nothing can stop a private company from producing miners, ss long as there is going to be profit, they will try to produce them.


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January 20, 2018, 10:55:40 PM
Merited by ibminer (1)
 #7

Thus, bitmain/canaan avalon/ebit should sit down and talk about how to not release too many machines (limit supply), rather than all 3 release so many that everyone earns alot less....including bitmain/canaan/ebit who are big miners themselves yes. They need to come together and make a cartel, like how OPEC did in the oil industry to control profits....and i hope they dont forget the to sell to the small miners too. In any case, I dont see how it can work out if they keep attracting more companies to come in. Btc mining has a low barrier to entry and almost every company out there can do it if they want to.

I hope to be wrong though. It might be best that they create a btc mining cartel.

Just my 2 cents

I'm reading this and I might start pinching myself.For real?

We have solved all problems not what is left to do is creating a mining cartel and restrict access to miners?
No offense, but are you out of your mind?
Is not enough that bitmain sometimes acts like it's in competition with the ten plagues of Egypt now we should encourage them?

The difference between OPEC and bitmain&co is huge.
First, those were countries these are companies.  A private company is interested only in profits they don't care one bit about the policies of the government and their strategies.
Second, OPEC was about oil, no matter what Japan might have tried they just couldn't produce oil.
When it comes to asics, nothing can stop a private company from producing miners, ss long as there is going to be profit, they will try to produce them.



Dude, there are many cartels out there, not just OPEC. Oil or mining biz doesnt matter. Problem here is just supply and profits. Oversupply kills everything. The manufacturers bitmain/ebit/canaan are also MAJOR miners also yes.

So, if all 3 manufacturers sell lots of miners, their profits from selling machines would be bigger BUT their profits from mining will be small.

If all 3 manufacturers sell lesser miners, their profits from selling machines would be smaller BUT their mining profits would be bigger.

If all 3 manufacturers sell way too many miners, their profits from selling profita would be huge but their mining profits will be nothing or close to it. This is possible, assuming bitcoin price stagnates.

Thus, there is a need to find an optimal point somewhere, one where profit is maximised for manufacturers and customers. Oversupply kills it for everyone in any industry.

The worst case scenario is if too many machines get produced and bitcoin price stagnates, we could see higher electricity price miners switch off their unprofitable machines and low cost miners make say 50-100 usd per month per machine? Problem is that at that price, it could take 23-46 months to get a return on investment on the machine alone....and in such a long time, there is still risk that new machines may make current ones obsolete.


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January 20, 2018, 10:58:01 PM
 #8

Bitmain - they are rogue and hate Bitcoin. They love their Bcash token instead. They don't have Bitcoin future in high regard. They can rather sabotage Bitcoin and let it tank than help it.
Bitfury - they don't sell their miners to the public, they are secretive, very unlikely they will create cartel with Bitmain and others, why would they change their policy?
Canaan - I can see them actually cooperating with someone else
Pangolinminer, Halong Mining, Ebit - new companies, rising fast, I can see them easily doing deal with other manufacturers for mutual benefit.

Hmmm yeah, it is difficult to get this done but btc price has been stagnating and dropping for awhile. If price stagnates for this year but btc difficulty keeps increasing, it is no good for any miner.

There is always a balance, an optimal graph for this to maximise profit for all parties. Sigh, u are right, this is difficult to occur.

The major oversupply scenario is very possible if u consider that btc mining industry is only so big....and that every big company out there, not related to mining, can easily pour millions or billions into it with ease. The amount of miners deployed could be a few times more perhaps. It is not that difficult to set up a mining facility after all....

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January 20, 2018, 11:33:24 PM
 #9

Bitmain - they are rogue and hate Bitcoin. They love their Bcash token instead. They don't have Bitcoin future in high regard. They can rather sabotage Bitcoin and let it tank than help it.
Bitfury - they don't sell their miners to the public, they are secretive, very unlikely they will create cartel with Bitmain and others, why would they change their policy?
Canaan - I can see them actually cooperating with someone else
Pangolinminer, Halong Mining, Ebit - new companies, rising fast, I can see them easily doing deal with other manufacturers for mutual benefit.

Hmmm yeah, it is difficult to get this done but btc price has been stagnating and dropping for awhile. If price stagnates for this year but btc difficulty keeps increasing, it is no good for any miner.

There is always a balance, an optimal graph for this to maximise profit for all parties. Sigh, u are right, this is difficult to occur.

The major oversupply scenario is very possible if u consider that btc mining industry is only so big....and that every big company out there, not related to mining, can easily pour millions or billions into it with ease. The amount of miners deployed could be a few times more perhaps. It is not that difficult to set up a mining facility after all....

I agree, the difficulty increased from 1.2 Trillion to 2.2 Trillion in just 90 days. More and more people are getting into mining. The next 90 days I see it increasing by at least 1.5 Trillion. The following 90 days, at least 2 trillion increase. By the end of 2018, difficulty should be in the 10 trillion to 12 trillion range. Just my guess.
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January 21, 2018, 07:40:57 PM
 #10

Im pretty sure the main reason behind the shortage of miners from BITMAIN and the others is exactly because they try to keep the difficulty from not going up too fast. There could be several good strategic reasons for them to "create" this shortage situation, but I hardly think its because they dont have enough funds to buy more chips...
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January 22, 2018, 12:12:26 PM
Merited by ibminer (1)
 #11

It is possible that there is a shortage because too many companies are buying? There has been too much coverage about mining by news sources.

The difference of electricity cost between a home miner with say good 10 cents per kwh electricity cost and a big commercial miner with 5 cents electricity cost is about 50 USD per S9.

So, if the home miner makes ZERO profit on an S9, the commercial guy makes 50 USD per miner profit. But at 50 USD, the cost of ROI for a 2300-2500 USD machine (without shipping and tax yet), is about 46-50 months lol. U cant ROI because too many things happen during that period. No one wins really.

The commercial miner has it better but they need higher returns too.

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January 22, 2018, 01:21:21 PM
Merited by ibminer (1)
 #12

Dude, there are many cartels out there, not just OPEC. Oil or mining biz doesnt matter. Problem here is just supply and profits. Oversupply kills everything. The manufacturers bitmain/ebit/canaan are also MAJOR miners also yes.

Just because there are more, it doesn't mean that it's a good thing.
And in case of OPEC we have seen why it's better not to have one, a feeling I'm experiencing every time at the gas station


So, if all 3 manufacturers sell lots of miners, their profits from selling machines would be bigger BUT their profits from mining will be small.

If all 3 manufacturers sell lesser miners, their profits from selling machines would be smaller BUT their mining profits would be bigger.

If all 3 manufacturers sell way too many miners, their profits from selling profita would be huge but their mining profits will be nothing or close to it. This is possible, assuming bitcoin price stagnates.

Thus, there is a need to find an optimal point somewhere, one where profit is maximised for manufacturers and customers. Oversupply kills it for everyone in any industry.

It doesn't work that way and I couldn't care less for their profits and losses.
Oversupply is good for the customer and as long as I am a customer I couldn't be happier.

How would you react if the ISP in your town would say, we can only provide internet for 33% of the houses there?
There rest...GFY!



The worst case scenario is if too many machines get produced and bitcoin price stagnates, we could see higher electricity price miners switch off their unprofitable machines and low cost miners make say 50-100 usd per month per machine? Problem is that at that price, it could take 23-46 months to get a return on investment on the machine alone....and in such a long time, there is still risk that new machines may make current ones obsolete.

I don't see what is wrong with this "worst case scenario".
Is there a law that investment in bitcoin mining should be profitable? No.
So you can't mine , don't mine.
But don't try to stop me from entering mining because you can't make money out of it.

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January 22, 2018, 01:34:30 PM
 #13

BTC mining difficulty will keep skyrocketing. Mining at home will be hard to get back your BTC investment on miners starting this year. If BTC fiat price goes through the roof like in 2017, mining makes (a lot of) profit in terms of fiat. My two cents: BTC mining has become arm race among big mining farms with nearly free electricity, and individuals hold your BTC.

There is no such thing as free electricity though.

The thing is bitcoin mining is small compared to other industries. If big companies juz come in with abit more capital, it is possible for mining to be u profitable even for everyone, even with free electricity. News sources have added too much hype and interest into mining.

For big miners, wouldnt it be in their best interest to make 300 dollars per machine rather than 50-100 dollars per machine??
There will make alot more.

Thus, bitmain/canaan avalon/ebit should sit down and talk about how to not release too many machines (limit supply), rather than all 3 release so many that everyone earns alot less....including bitmain/canaan/ebit who are big miners themselves yes. They need to come together and make a cartel, like how OPEC did in the oil industry to control profits....and i hope they dont forget the to sell to the small miners too. In any case, I dont see how it can work out if they keep attracting more companies to come in. Btc mining has a low barrier to entry and almost every company out there can do it if they want to.

I hope to be wrong though. It might be best that they create a btc mining cartel.

Just my 2 cents

bro cartel agreements are illegal they could go sit for that...

Not necessarily. Cartels like OPEC arent illegal and they serve a purpose, one that makes sense. This will make alot of sense too. Oversupply would mean no miner makes money bro and it would be a huge waste. It would just be a huge waste of electricity.

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January 22, 2018, 03:40:31 PM
Merited by ibminer (1)
 #14

Dude, there are many cartels out there, not just OPEC. Oil or mining biz doesnt matter. Problem here is just supply and profits. Oversupply kills everything. The manufacturers bitmain/ebit/canaan are also MAJOR miners also yes.

Just because there are more, it doesn't mean that it's a good thing.
And in case of OPEC we have seen why it's better not to have one, a feeling I'm experiencing every time at the gas station


So, if all 3 manufacturers sell lots of miners, their profits from selling machines would be bigger BUT their profits from mining will be small.

If all 3 manufacturers sell lesser miners, their profits from selling machines would be smaller BUT their mining profits would be bigger.

If all 3 manufacturers sell way too many miners, their profits from selling profita would be huge but their mining profits will be nothing or close to it. This is possible, assuming bitcoin price stagnates.

Thus, there is a need to find an optimal point somewhere, one where profit is maximised for manufacturers and customers. Oversupply kills it for everyone in any industry.

It doesn't work that way and I couldn't care less for their profits and losses.
Oversupply is good for the customer and as long as I am a customer I couldn't be happier.

How would you react if the ISP in your town would say, we can only provide internet for 33% of the houses there?
There rest...GFY!



The worst case scenario is if too many machines get produced and bitcoin price stagnates, we could see higher electricity price miners switch off their unprofitable machines and low cost miners make say 50-100 usd per month per machine? Problem is that at that price, it could take 23-46 months to get a return on investment on the machine alone....and in such a long time, there is still risk that new machines may make current ones obsolete.

I don't see what is wrong with this "worst case scenario".
Is there a law that investment in bitcoin mining should be profitable? No.
So you can't mine , don't mine.
But don't try to stop me from entering mining because you can't make money out of it.

There is no "consumer" in this case. Oversupply means all miners lose money. This is not a case where heavier competition leads to better price for consumers, such as a consumer product. Mining difficulty will not affect bitcoin price. Oversupply in this case would mean electricity gets wasted because it makes no profit.


If there are too many miners, the manufacturers cannot sell mining equipment either because the profit will be like 100 USD a month and no one is willing to pay even 1300-1600 USD for a 100 per month machine.
And u wont wanna go into mining because it makes no sense.


The reason oversupply can occur is because there are multiple manufacturers and when the machine is ordered, it can come 2-3 months later. So, people will order when they see the mining profit rate as quite good but by the time it comes 2-3 months later, the return on investment would be a very long time or possibly an impossible time.

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January 22, 2018, 04:58:35 PM
 #15

There is nothing that says Bitcoin MUST continue to exist. I can't think of many currencies that are designed to make money for anybody. They are a convenience in place of a barter system.

It's not obvious that it will be prove to be particularly successful as a currency.
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January 23, 2018, 12:55:44 AM
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There is nothing that says Bitcoin MUST continue to exist. I can't think of many currencies that are designed to make money for anybody. They are a convenience in place of a barter system.

It's not obvious that it will be prove to be particularly successful as a currency.

Yes, there is nothing to say bitcoin must exist. If btc dont exist, mining wont either. But thats not related to this topic though.

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January 23, 2018, 11:00:45 AM
Merited by ibminer (1)
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There is no "consumer" in this case. Oversupply means all miners lose money. This is not a case where heavier competition leads to better price for consumers, such as a consumer product. Mining difficulty will not affect bitcoin price. Oversupply in this case would mean electricity gets wasted because it makes no profit.


If there are too many miners, the manufacturers cannot sell mining equipment either because the profit will be like 100 USD a month and no one is willing to pay even 1300-1600 USD for a 100 per month machine.
And u wont wanna go into mining because it makes no sense.


The reason oversupply can occur is because there are multiple manufacturers and when the machine is ordered, it can come 2-3 months later. So, people will order when they see the mining profit rate as quite good but by the time it comes 2-3 months later, the return on investment would be a very long time or possibly an impossible time.

Oh but there is.
Quoting Costanza..."What Consumer? I'm the consumer".

I want to buy a miner, I'm a buyer, I'm a consumer. You want to restrict that because me making money would mean you losing money. Simple as that.

And yes, heavier competition always leads to better prices, you mentioned OPEC..what better example?
AMD and Intel?

Also you seem to lack a bit of understanding of basic economics.

Quote
Oversupply in this case would mean electricity gets wasted because it makes no profit.

Let me ask you something, do you mine BTC with a gpu? no because it's a waste of money and electricity
Would a thousand miners mine mazacoin? No, because the reward is so low they would waste money and electricity
Would a billion miners mine BTC ? Of course not.
They would understand it's unprofitable and they would turn they miners off ... and a miner turned off does not consume electricity and of course does not waste electricity.

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January 24, 2018, 02:54:02 AM
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Big businesses will never get into mining. If they are already making 100M+ why in the world would they want to go into mining? Switching from a known successful business to something unknown with variables you can't control is dumber than dumb. It takes way too long to get your ROI mining. Smart businesses would rather sell you the miners and make the quicker profits. That's why Bitmain and the other manufacturers are more than happy to sell everyone miners at inflated prices.
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January 24, 2018, 03:46:31 AM
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There is no "consumer" in this case. Oversupply means all miners lose money. This is not a case where heavier competition leads to better price for consumers, such as a consumer product. Mining difficulty will not affect bitcoin price. Oversupply in this case would mean electricity gets wasted because it makes no profit.


If there are too many miners, the manufacturers cannot sell mining equipment either because the profit will be like 100 USD a month and no one is willing to pay even 1300-1600 USD for a 100 per month machine.
And u wont wanna go into mining because it makes no sense.


The reason oversupply can occur is because there are multiple manufacturers and when the machine is ordered, it can come 2-3 months later. So, people will order when they see the mining profit rate as quite good but by the time it comes 2-3 months later, the return on investment would be a very long time or possibly an impossible time.

Oh but there is.
Quoting Costanza..."What Consumer? I'm the consumer".

I want to buy a miner, I'm a buyer, I'm a consumer. You want to restrict that because me making money would mean you losing money. Simple as that.

And yes, heavier competition always leads to better prices, you mentioned OPEC..what better example?
AMD and Intel?

Also you seem to lack a bit of understanding of basic economics.

Quote
Oversupply in this case would mean electricity gets wasted because it makes no profit.

Let me ask you something, do you mine BTC with a gpu? no because it's a waste of money and electricity
Would a thousand miners mine mazacoin? No, because the reward is so low they would waste money and electricity
Would a billion miners mine BTC ? Of course not.
They would understand it's unprofitable and they would turn they miners off ... and a miner turned off does not consume electricity and of course does not waste electricity.


U are not making sense. There is no consumer. This is not like a product where higher supply leads to lower prices. More mining equipment will not affect btc prices period......


No dude, more mining equipment means more difficulty. People will run their machines even if it makes 50 dollars a month profit to get something back, like with the D3 now. So, higher electricity home miners will make 50 a month on an S9 and the lower electricity players will make 100 a month. That is still bad considering the machine cost 2300-2600 a month. It will take too long to roi and alot can happen before those long months pass.

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January 24, 2018, 03:48:36 AM
 #20

Isn't there already a cartel named Bitmain?
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