Effect of MtGox funds seizure on price?

[Peter Lambert]

As seen here, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=278136.msg2971186#msg2971186, MtGox had almost 3 million USD seized from their Dwolla account.

Could we look at this as the US government cashing 3 million dollars out of the bitcoin ecosystem, so we would expect that to lower the price of bitcoins? Or since this happened a couple months ago, we could say that the effect has already been introduced to the price?

[Chalkbot]

As seen here, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=278136.msg2971186#msg2971186, MtGox had almost 3 million USD seized from their Dwolla account.

Could we look at this as the US government cashing 3 million dollars out of the bitcoin ecosystem, so we would expect that to lower the price of bitcoins? Or since this happened a couple months ago, we could say that the effect has already been introduced to the price?

This, or any similarly scaled news = zero effect.

Pretty much. Nobody was waiting to hear how much was in the account before making their buy/sell decisions, therefore, no effect.

[Peter Lambert]

As seen here, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=278136.msg2971186#msg2971186, MtGox had almost 3 million USD seized from their Dwolla account.

Could we look at this as the US government cashing 3 million dollars out of the bitcoin ecosystem, so we would expect that to lower the price of bitcoins? Or since this happened a couple months ago, we could say that the effect has already been introduced to the price?

This, or any similarly scaled news = zero effect.

Pretty much. Nobody was waiting to hear how much was in the account before making their buy/sell decisions, therefore, no effect.

But people seeing this news might realize what a world of trouble MtGox is in, so they are more likely now to face the 15% haircut they get from buying on Gox and moving their money off as bitcoins. And we are seeing in the past couple days the MtGox/Bitstamp prices continue to diverge.

[superduh]

As seen here, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=278136.msg2971186#msg2971186, MtGox had almost 3 million USD seized from their Dwolla account.

Could we look at this as the US government cashing 3 million dollars out of the bitcoin ecosystem, so we would expect that to lower the price of bitcoins? Or since this happened a couple months ago, we could say that the effect has already been introduced to the price?

This, or any similarly scaled news = zero effect.

Pretty much. Nobody was waiting to hear how much was in the account before making their buy/sell decisions, therefore, no effect.

But people seeing this news might realize what a world of trouble MtGox is in, so they are more likely now to face the 15% haircut they get from buying on Gox and moving their money off as bitcoins. And we are seeing in the past couple days the MtGox/Bitstamp prices continue to diverge.

read my thread to know exactly why this isn't "as big a deal" as you think. gox has more than enough of their own money to cover this for the time being

[Peter Lambert]

As seen here, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=278136.msg2971186#msg2971186, MtGox had almost 3 million USD seized from their Dwolla account.

Could we look at this as the US government cashing 3 million dollars out of the bitcoin ecosystem, so we would expect that to lower the price of bitcoins? Or since this happened a couple months ago, we could say that the effect has already been introduced to the price?

This, or any similarly scaled news = zero effect.

Pretty much. Nobody was waiting to hear how much was in the account before making their buy/sell decisions, therefore, no effect.

But people seeing this news might realize what a world of trouble MtGox is in, so they are more likely now to face the 15% haircut they get from buying on Gox and moving their money off as bitcoins. And we are seeing in the past couple days the MtGox/Bitstamp prices continue to diverge.

read my thread to know exactly why this isn't "as big a deal" as you think. gox has more than enough of their own money to cover this for the time being

Link? I figure that is something like 10 5 months revenue for them (based on the current 30 day volume and a commision of 0.5% x2), that seems like it would be a big deal for me. And it doesn't matter if they have the money to cover the loss or not, what matters is that money is no longer in the bitcoin system, and the panic of depositors who want their money back before Gox goes under.

Edit: I forgot they take the commision from both sides. But that is still just their revenue, not their profit.

[superduh]

my post is right next to this post

btw they take commission from both sides of the transaction.

[matt608]

I'm slightly concerned that if Mtgox is destroyed by this the other exchanges wont be able to handle the new surge of x-goxers and will go down too creating a crash.  But I've no idea if Mtgox is actually in any serious danger.  Are they?

[ArticMine]

It is having an impact on what currencies are traded for BTC on MTGox with a drop in USD and rise in most other currencies. The risk of holding USD in MTGox is very different from holding JPY, PLN, EUR, CAD, AUD etc. there. The key difference a withdrawal of USD from MTGox is routed via a US bank while for other currencies it is not.

[masterluc]

As seen here, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=278136.msg2971186#msg2971186, MtGox had almost 3 million USD seized from their Dwolla account.

Could we look at this as the US government cashing 3 million dollars out of the bitcoin ecosystem, so we would expect that to lower the price of bitcoins? Or since this happened a couple months ago, we could say that the effect has already been introduced to the price?

Big deal. As always.