Realistically, how do you think bitcoin will perform this year?

[richardsNY]

We will also be able to see who's here for the money and who really is bullish on the technology.

I think it's clear already that the far majority of the people here don't care about Bitcoin's technological capabilities. It has been like that from the moment I entered the crypto world, and it's still like that today. In order to value Bitcoin's technological capabilities, you have to understand at least the very basics, and that alone is already a near impossible task for those just caring about their insignificant shitty fiat investment. These people are happy when they cashed out their profits, and have the fiat sitting in their bank account. The only thing they do is complain about the high transaction fees....

We musn't forget that $10K still is a damn nice price. When you would ask me in march of last year where I'd like to see bitcoin I would've told you $3K a piece would be nice and $5K would be very optimistic and yet here we stand. We tend to take the insane gains for granted.

Absolutely! Seriously, my target for 2017 would be $2k and $3k tops. Instead, we have seen the market nearly reach $20k during a crazy bull run. If we would have reached $5k today as all time high, the market would be in euphoric state, but now we have gone down from $20k to now $11k, we have gone down a lot, we're in a bear market, Bitcoin is losing popularity, etc. People have been far too spoiled, and they are stupid.

[dinoloverpete]

I'm expecting 25k around March, 50k by May, and something between 70-100k by the end of the year.

But we will have more volatility than before. Price is already doing swings of four digits, going from 13k to 11k in a matter of hours.

One thing that I want for bitcoin is to decrease the fees. LN can solve that, as most users will be on smartphones, not running nodes. This will unclog the legacy chain.

Another thing I want is smart contracts for bitcoin, to increase its security and made it more trustless. Conditioned payments is the future.

This seems highly optimistic, I don't see any indication of why we'll reach $50k by March personally. Do you have any evidence to back up your predictions, as the LN isn't anywhere close to mainstream yet.

There's probably very little chance of us reaching 50k by March. Even if lightning network was released tomorrow it wouldn't even lead me to believe such a thing could happen.

[jakezyrus]

I'm expecting 25k around March, 50k by May, and something between 70-100k by the end of the year.

But we will have more volatility than before. Price is already doing swings of four digits, going from 13k to 11k in a matter of hours.

One thing that I want for bitcoin is to decrease the fees. LN can solve that, as most users will be on smartphones, not running nodes. This will unclog the legacy chain.

Another thing I want is smart contracts for bitcoin, to increase its security and made it more trustless. Conditioned payments is the future.

This seems highly optimistic, I don't see any indication of why we'll reach $50k by March personally. Do you have any evidence to back up your predictions, as the LN isn't anywhere close to mainstream yet.

There's probably very little chance of us reaching 50k by March. Even if lightning network was released tomorrow it wouldn't even lead me to believe such a thing could happen.

i think thats not going to happen as bitcoin values tend to drop more and become stagnant for weeks and even months . now were closing to february but bitcoin seems the same ,  nothing more nothing less so i guess 50k by march is just a plain imagination and merely a dream that wont come to reality but still lets just hope for a better tommmorow that may come to bitcoin. overall even though bitcoins dumps it is still a good advanatge for most of us as they can now purchase bitcoin in a cheaper price.

[magneto]

My prediction:

Slow grind down for 6-8 more weeks, one final dump to scare the fk all out of the market (probably dip $7-8k-ish), and then the downtrend will be broken. Then a little up, and then pretty much sideways for 3-4 more months.

The thing about momentum trades is once they top and pop, they never will return to your market until a new bottom is found and the downtrend has reversed. This usually takes a LOT longer than most people have the patience for.

It makes sense. I think the real bullish trigger will need to come from lightning network, and as long as we don't have that, we'll keep hovering within $10,000 (could even be sub $10,000) and the $15,000 mark comfortably.

If we're completely honest and look at the market from an unbiased (ie, non exaggerated bullish) perspective, we are still holding strong and belong exactly where we are right now.

This longer period of a non upwards moving market allows people to consistently accumulate coins at these 'lower' levels. If people don't use this time to accumulate, I seriously don't know what they are doing here.

It's a fantastic opportunity. Especially for those who bought at much higher levels. If you buy now, you will automatically lower your overall entry price. It's just a matter of logical thinking.

I wouldn't mind a slightly bearish market for the next couple of months. I feel like we really needed it after the insane growth. We will also be able to see who's here for the money and who really is bullish on the technology. We musn't forget that $10K still is a damn nice price. When you would ask me in march of last year where I'd like to see bitcoin I would've told you $3K a piece would be nice and $5K would be very optimistic and yet here we stand. We tend to take the insane gains for granted.

Absolutely. A lot of people are here just for the prospect of making money quick. They see bitcoin just like any other investment opportunities and even compare it to an affiliate marketing scheme like bitconnect. That really angers me, since they haven't done any research about what bitcoin is and they are starting to invest. Sure, bitcoin can be a great investment and has proven to be, but its main agenda is to provide a decentralized means of exchange for people.

I honestly think that bitcoin won't crash a lot further, even if it does it'll probably stop at $5k at the worst, which is still up 5x from last year. But more than likely, bitcoin will go up to around $15-20k and hopefully, have some support base at that level.

At the end of the day, fiat valuation of bitcoin is unfair and redundant for the long term.

[superjeyy]

You did not get comments obviously because no one can know exactly how bitcoin will end up fairing this year. We can only be optimistic that with segwit being increasingly adopted and LN in the picture, things can get better but who knows what the outcome of all these will still end up as?

Early last year, if you had ask me this question, do you think it would have been realistic if I mentioned to you that bitcoin would hit almost $20k? No one would have even believed $10k. I guess we just have to wait and see, hoping that we get another nice ride this year but I won't be too relaxed waiting for it, so I will rather just follow trends and wherever it leads us, good and fine.

What nl247 said is on point, knowing how Bitcoin works, this is one of the questions you shouldn't hope for a "realistic" answer as we all know the nature of Bitcoin. The first month of the new year is nearing its end, but that doesn't mean we can get a concrete idea of how the performance of Bitcoin will be throughout the year. Predicting how Bitcoin rates are affected tomorrow is hard to know, how much more for the whole year? Always know that Bitcoin is incorporated with uncertainty and just like what nl247 said, we can only observe and hope for the best.

[zlatan07]

I read news about Bitcoin, I did some analysation and I can say that this year Bitcoin should hit maximum 30k USD in value. I also think that average price of Bitcoin will be around 11K~15k USD.
Now let's explain why? - from my point of view.
Since the price of Bitcoin rise, we can see more charges and according to those businesspeople who attending to purchase, instantly looking for alternatives where they wouldn't be charged a lot(now we can see that other cryptocurrencies prices are in increase).
Bitcoin got huge media attention, so we can practically see every single news are about Bitcoin on the top of popular sites. That media attention is blade with two edges(this can change the price of Bitcoin drastically).
Now we have other cryptocurrencies in the game, so the price of Bitcoin should get some sort of average price form.

[armansolis593]

With segwit acceptance increasing, and the advent of the lightning network likely by year end, how does bitcointalk think BTC will perform this year, and why?

Im still yearning at bitcoins positive side, true that segwit user has increase since the clog is still there in the network. Hopefully that this year 2018 issues will be resolve so that we could move further ahead in expanding bitcoins investors (more investor means price will go up).

Bitcoin has been with the battle with regulations and users losing trust in the network, FUDs everywhere in the internet and some news agency but still bitcoin price is fighting this in the market, if the regulations will be halted then this will yet to be another year of bitcoin.

[frmracc]

I'm expecting 25k around March, 50k by May, and something between 70-100k by the end of the year.

But we will have more volatility than before. Price is already doing swings of four digits, going from 13k to 11k in a matter of hours.

One thing that I want for bitcoin is to decrease the fees. LN can solve that, as most users will be on smartphones, not running nodes. This will unclog the legacy chain.

Another thing I want is smart contracts for bitcoin, to increase its security and made it more trustless. Conditioned payments is the future.

This seems highly optimistic, I don't see any indication of why we'll reach $50k by March personally. Do you have any evidence to back up your predictions, as the LN isn't anywhere close to mainstream yet.

There's probably very little chance of us reaching 50k by March. Even if lightning network was released tomorrow it wouldn't even lead me to believe such a thing could happen.

50k by march is too much and i'm not even sure the price can reach $30k. January is a blood bath on the market, the price dropped to $10.5k right now but it will go up again later. The problem is how long the bitcoin price can reach after the crashed? I guess back to 19k on march.

[omonuyak]

Governments all over the world are using regulations as a tools to control bitcoin and bring the system under they subjection. I think bitcoin is going to overcome all they plan and strategies. I expect bitcoin to go as high as $50,000 in 2018 and that means one should not sell their coins because of the current happening. I personally will keep holding my coins until the price get above $100,000 because I believe this is going to happen one day.

[Fafabol]

I'm expecting 25k around March, 50k by May, and something between 70-100k by the end of the year.

But we will have more volatility than before. Price is already doing swings of four digits, going from 13k to 11k in a matter of hours.

One thing that I want for bitcoin is to decrease the fees. LN can solve that, as most users will be on smartphones, not running nodes. This will unclog the legacy chain.

Another thing I want is smart contracts for bitcoin, to increase its security and made it more trustless. Conditioned payments is the future.

This seems highly optimistic, I don't see any indication of why we'll reach $50k by March personally. Do you have any evidence to back up your predictions, as the LN isn't anywhere close to mainstream yet.

There's probably very little chance of us reaching 50k by March. Even if lightning network was released tomorrow it wouldn't even lead me to believe such a thing could happen.

50k by march is too much and i'm not even sure the price can reach $30k. January is a blood bath on the market, the price dropped to $10.5k right now but it will go up again later. The problem is how long the bitcoin price can reach after the crashed? I guess back to 19k on march.

Yeah that will be realistically speaking and not the $50k because it's too much to ask and too early to expect. Maybe if bitcoin will surpass at least $15k mark and keep rising and will just have some dips then it may be. Hope February will be yhe rise again of bitcoin.

[Denker]

Governments all over the world are using regulations as a tools to control bitcoin and bring the system under they subjection. I think bitcoin is going to overcome all they plan and strategies. I expect bitcoin to go as high as $50,000 in 2018 and that means one should not sell their coins because of the current happening. I personally will keep holding my coins until the price get above $100,000 because I believe this is going to happen one day.

Governments can't control Bitcoin as it is a decentralized network. You know this. And I'm sure they know this as well.
The on ramps to invest in Bitcoin and cryptos in general are already heavy regulated in most countries. That's why we see so much ambitious efforts to build decentralized exchanges. There isn't anything left for nation states except banning the whole space what will drive it totally underground and make it totally anonymous.

In terms of price I*ve got no clue. Anything is possible. From making new ATHs to ranging around unexpected low price levels for many months. Time will tell.

[GetOutOfMyLife]

Bitcoin appears to be climbing back up, from a low of around $10,200 yesterday, up to $11,500 today (up more than 10% in 24 hours). Are we about to see another spike?

[Proton2233]

Bitcoin appears to be climbing back up, from a low of around $10,200 yesterday, up to $11,500 today (up more than 10% in 24 hours). Are we about to see another spike?

Price increase by 10% after a fall of 45% is nothing. I think that the credibility of bitcoin will come back only if the price of the transaction reduced. It seems to me that the main objective of bitcoin's become a currency. Use it as an asset to accumulate can turn bitcoin into a bubble. It is strange why the developers do not understand and did not take any action.

[h0lybyte]

If you would've asked this question last year, i believe anyone could have hardly speculated $1k, But you might remember how drastically bitcoin took an unexpected change and rised from $1000 upto $20000 within a months of brief time. Keeping last surge in mind, some speculators say that bitcoin may reach $40k by 2018 and i myself agree on their speculation because world is exponentially getting involved in blockchain technology

[NWJBL]

I would guess we're not going to see anything much over 20k, if I'm honest - it's reigned in now and will float around these levels for quite a while. Alts are where money is to be made now, let's face it.

[A1exander]

As 2017 has shown, bitcoin is impossible to predict, we can only guess. My guess is that 2018, at least the first half of it, will be rather boring. No new ATH, and even the return to $20k seems to be unlikely. Hovering near $10k is more likely.

[GetOutOfMyLife]

As 2017 has shown, bitcoin is impossible to predict, we can only guess. My guess is that 2018, at least the first half of it, will be rather boring. No new ATH, and even the return to $20k seems to be unlikely. Hovering near $10k is more likely.

Sadly, I think you are right. I suspect trading will be sideways until some positive headlines are announced.

[penig]

Realism has little to do with Bitcoin and the rest of the Cryptoland valuations.  People have no idea what the values are based on, they talk up coins about having good projects, good teams, lots of announcements, do research... most have nothing to research beyond their white paper and an echo chamber of bullish (or bearish) commentary on various blogs and websites. That's not to say there isn't value, just there's not empirical or methodical way to analyse it.  So anyone is welcome to make guesses based on gut feel, if you predict up you're welcomed, if you predict along way up cheered and maybe ridiculed, but if you predict down its dismissed as FUD.    In short, dont know, I dont want to leave the party but have one eye on the door
 

[Krillin61]

As 2017 has shown, bitcoin is impossible to predict, we can only guess. My guess is that 2018, at least the first half of it, will be rather boring. No new ATH, and even the return to $20k seems to be unlikely. Hovering near $10k is more likely.

Truly that bitcoin was unpredictable, last year there was an issue that after the fork bitcoin's value will fall but rather it goes up and continue growing until it reach its highest price achievement which is $20,000. Since bitcoin is now gradually decreasing, we should make some move but don't panicked, I guess should hold it because I believe that it will bu back. Don't afraid to loss because it is just temporarily, it is too early for bitcoin to perish.

[gabmen]

As 2017 has shown, bitcoin is impossible to predict, we can only guess. My guess is that 2018, at least the first half of it, will be rather boring. No new ATH, and even the return to $20k seems to be unlikely. Hovering near $10k is more likely.

Sadly, I think you are right. I suspect trading will be sideways until some positive headlines are announced.

Well there's nothing to be sad about that though. A slow steady rise for me is a loy better than a sudden quick pump that surely will have an equal correction. I think we should even be thankful that the price is strong just above 10k with all the fuds circling around btc