Guesstimate thread for total ASIC pre-order hashing power.

[jjiimm_64]

How do you get 2000 as the limit, when the running total is 3900, or did i miss something

[1715609099]

1715609099

[1715609099]

1715609099

[1715609099]

1715609099

[1715609099]

1715609099

[1715609099]

1715609099

[FeedbackLoop]

Was talking just about the KNC numbers.

[nmat]

Nice analysis. Much better than the "let's add 50% every month until forever".

[FeedbackLoop]

Nice analysis. Much better than the "let's add 50% every month until forever".

Curiously, if you want to choose a single value to estimate beginning of January hash power, 50% per month is not nearly enough  

Assuming 50% till January:

500*1.50^4. =  2531.25

To get a value close to the sum (assuming "only" 500 TH/s for KNC) to be delivered till January you need about 68%:

500*1.68^4 = 3982.97

But choosing a single value is not the purpose of the topic, sorry.

[bcp19]

BFL: 7PH and rising.

Got a link or breakdown.

1) Has anyone compiled a guestimate of the amount of pre-orders.
2) I did a breakdown in a previous thread I cannot find ATM.  Worked out to an average .1TH per BFL order and ~70k orders using the ~4900 known orders.
3) Refunds were not taken into account due to lack of information.
4) Monarchs were considered the "and rising"

[kwaaak]

2. MetaBank will receive 1400 boards in 8 days.

—> 1400 * 8 * 2.9Gh/s = 32.48Th/s

Meaning, don't forget the Russian BitFury projects.

[gkm22d]

I can't find a source to back up 1000th for asicminer by the end of  the year, I am sure I read it somewhere, but it must not have been official. A lot of people will have alotmore to say than me, but a few points:

Friedcat seems pretty motivated to keep a roughly 20% share of the hashrate. While they might have dropped to 10% lately, I am pretty confident they are ready for what's to come.

Friedcat would have access to more money than any of the other manufacturers.

The next generation of their hardware is known to be in the works.

They plan on leasing out their hardware, which I would assume means they will have a lot of it.

And one last bit of evidence would be their share price. If everyone lost confidence in friedcat's ability to deliver, their shares would be worthless. They have dropped recently but only because of their recent lull.

[jamesg]

or if 70% of the estimate gets delivered we will be around 400M diff near the first of the year?

My projections have us hitting an average diff of 411,484,534 in December 2013. This would be an average network speed of 2.94Ph/s and would mean that most ASIC equipment out would be unprofitable to mine with shortly afterwards (2 to 3 months) unless there is a price spike or electricity and hosting get a great deal cheaper.

[k9quaint]

BFL: 7PH and rising.

Got a link or breakdown.

1) Has anyone compiled a guestimate of the amount of pre-orders.
2) I did a breakdown in a previous thread I cannot find ATM.  Worked out to an average .1TH per BFL order and ~70k orders using the ~4900 known orders.
3) Refunds were not taken into account due to lack of information.
4) Monarchs were considered the "and rising"

For posterity.

[bcp19]

BFL: 7PH and rising.

Got a link or breakdown.

1) Has anyone compiled a guestimate of the amount of pre-orders.
2) I did a breakdown in a previous thread I cannot find ATM.  Worked out to an average .1TH per BFL order and ~70k orders using the ~4900 known orders.
3) Refunds were not taken into account due to lack of information.
4) Monarchs were considered the "and rising"

For posterity.

Still waiting.

[DeathAndTaxes]

2. MetaBank will receive 1400 boards in 8 days.

—> 1400 * 8 * 2.9Gh/s = 32.48Th/s

Meaning, don't forget the Russian BitFury projects.

Added.  Thanks.

[niko]

Vendors who are past their NRE cost can provide practically unlimited quantities of chips at the cost that is orders of magnitude below today's prices. Thus, the answer to your inquiry is mostly in the domain of psychology of the miners, not in the domain of engineering of the vendors.
The hashing power that will be coming online through the gaping anus of all these preorders is elastic in the sense that vendors will simply keep selling as long as (pre)orders are coming in. Once the supply of suckers starts diminishing, the vendors will simply drop the $s/hash ratio. This will attract new customers, and also force some of the old ones to keep ordering so they don't drop out of the game (monarch anyone?). Then the price drops again. And again. And again. Only when we get close to the production cost, and vendors start operating on thin margins, will the game of power efficiency begin.

What does it cost to produce high volumes of ASICs? A couple of tens of dollars per chip, which is thermally limited to a couple of hundreds of watts, which currently might provide a couple of hundreds of GHash/s. There you go. Let's say ~0.2$s/Ghash. Next, we account for the RoI period miners are comfortable with - a year maybe? That's 1.3M coins up for grabs. Their value is anyone's guess, but let's say $400 per coin in the next year or two. That's half a billion dollars to be made, ignoring fees. The miner's investment then translates into 2E9 Ghash/s. Give or take. Once we hit that, the J/hash will become more important, and that's a whole another amazing story full of exotic technologies, exotic places, and politics.

[DeathAndTaxes]

In the long run yes however I was more looking for the short term.   Once shipping in volume margins on hardware is going to collapse and trend towards a small markup over cost.  Still even if raw silicon is $0.20 per GH/s the overall system is going to be higher.  Even simple stuff like high quality DC to DC PSU aren't cheap and can easily be more than the ASIC itself.  Throw in AC power supply, case, cooling, testing, assembly, labor, etc and you will be hard pressed to build a system below $1 per GH/s.

[buzzdave]

I think you are pretty close on your estimate of total starter kits sold (globally), but we sold far less full kits.  Figure about 50-60 full kits for August delivery worldwide.

[AussieHash]

+Alydian http://www.coindesk.com/alydian-targets-big-ticket-miners-with-terahash-hosting/
+labcoin
+cointerra
+xcrowd

[stormos]

1000TH by ASICMiner
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=246253.msg2610794#msg2610794

[console_cowboy]

Well it looks like Cointerra is announcing their total hashing power... http://www.coindesk.com/cointerra-cuts-price-of-terraminer-iv-bitcoin-mining-rig/

Looks like 2P/H total from them, with a price drop. Still not looking very profitable, but maybe things will change.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Well it looks like Cointerra is announcing their total hashing power... http://www.coindesk.com/cointerra-cuts-price-of-terraminer-iv-bitcoin-mining-rig/

Looks like 2P/H total from them, with a price drop. Still not looking very profitable, but maybe things will change.

This is where it start to get confusing.  Can cointerra produce 2 PH/s without pre-orders.  If not then do they have enough pre-orders to start production.  Given the almost universal negative response I would think not but then it starts to get real subjective.  I guess I will just mark em down for 2 PH/s.

Thanks.

On edit: maybe should indicate if tapeout has been completed.  That is the final large fixed cost.  A company which doesn't complete the tapeout may never produce an ASIC but once taped out it is highly unlikely a company won't be able to sell all of its initial lot.  Maybe not at the price it wants, maybe the company even loses money on the deal but ultimately that hashpower is going to make it to the market.

If someone wants to rise the table to show "status" and anticipated delivery I wouldn't complain. If not I will do it this weekend.

[console_cowboy]

This is where it start to get confusing.  Can cointerra produce 2 PH/s without pre-orders.  If not then do they have enough pre-orders to start production.  Given the almost universal negative response I would think not but then it starts to get real subjective.  I guess I will just mark em down for 2 PH/s.

Thanks.

On edit: maybe should indicate if tapeout has been completed.  That is the final large fixed cost.  A company which doesn't complete the tapeout may never produce an ASIC but once taped out it is highly unlikely a company won't be able to sell all of its initial lot.  Maybe not at the price it wants, maybe the company even loses money on the deal but ultimately that hashpower is going to make it to the market.

If someone wants to rise the table to show "status" and anticipated delivery I wouldn't complain. If not I will do it this weekend.

No announcement of tapeout, but there was this thread on Reddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1l0plk/an_insiders_take_on_cointerra_the_bitcoin_mining/

It looks like they have VC funding, so its possible that they will get the chips made without preorders, but I agree that they will probably not make what they think off each mining rig. Curious if you think VC funding will make this a more sure production?

[gkm22d]

Here is my guesstimate:
http://s11.postimg.org/awaew7fpf/9_CYQFOR77_tztv_Jrpiy65_Pz_U1q09_L2_Siv_G37g0_Ol_OD4.png