Taking SHORT bitcoin right now - currently trading at 12732 on CMC

[Crypt0walker]

with 3 percent stop.

Should start dropping very soon

* This is not a recommendation to act and is based on my personal algorithms

[1715586321]

1715586321

[Andrey123]

Bitcoin will grow now, after falling to 9000 dollars.

[BitcoinHodler]

currently trading at 12732 on CMC

CMC???

you mean coinmarketcap.com?!! if so you shouldn't be looking at the price there, specially when you want to short bitcoin! that price is an average and is far off from the price you see on exchanges most of the times.

for example right now it is $12,450 on bitfinex.

Should start dropping very soon

why?
it seems like you are gambling here...

* This is not a recommendation to act and is based on my personal algorithms

care to give more information? because a 1 liners saying you are going to short because it will fall does seem like a "recommendation". more like FUD if you ask me.

[yanto@1977]

with 3 percent stop.

Should start dropping very soon

* This is not a recommendation to act and is based on my personal algorithms

Your post not give me enough information why should I take that action? show me your algorithms, so I can take action ( just for sure ). Up and down is part from market and usually just temporary trend, will gone soon or very soon. If bitcoin start drop, I believe this is the right moment to buy back. Use martiangle money management to take buy area and hold it until the price comes up again. That's it and see you next time.

[plusalpha789]

I didn't even know that you could short actual bitcoin.  Do you have to pay to borrow it?  And if so, how much?

[Crypt0walker]

Bitcoin after the drop that occured as expected, trading now on Bitfinex @ 12,081.

It's now another short opportunity. A stop can be placed 2% above current price

[chris200x9]

Bitcoin after the drop that occured as expected, trading now on Bitfinex @ 12,081.

It's now another short opportunity. A stop can be placed 2% above current price

I don't want to time the market now because Bitcoin already corrected a lot and any time it can start moving up so what I do is if prices go down then buy some more but not selling at the current market price. Also, I'm not a full-time trader and can't always time the market so I prefer to invest and wait for the prices to go up.

[Crypt0walker]

CMC???

you mean coinmarketcap.com?!! if so you shouldn't be looking at the price there, specially when you want to short bitcoin! that price is an average and is far off from the price you see on exchanges most of the times.

for example right now it is $12,450 on bitfinex.

No problem, from now on I will reference the price on bitfinex and not coinmarketcap.

why?
it seems like you are gambling here...

I use algorithms that predict Bitcoin (and other crypto currencies) prices very accurately. I don't want to talk about their past success since you cannot verify that, but only give predictions that you can test and see if i'm right or not.

care to give more information? because a 1 liners saying you are going to short because it will fall does seem like a "recommendation". more like FUD if you ask me.

Sorry but it's not meant to create FUD at all, just writing so you can follow and see if my predictions are correct, then you can decide after seeing and believing that they have value.

I don't want to time the market now because Bitcoin already corrected a lot and any time it can start moving up so what I do is if prices go down then buy some more but not selling at the current market price. Also, I'm not a full-time trader and can't always time the market so I prefer to invest and wait for the prices to go up.

chris200x9, you can see that since my message the price dropped by 200 dollars. This is not a coincidence.
I'm closing 1/3 of the short now and lowering the stop to the entry price, so this trade will yield a profit no matter what.

[Crypt0walker]

Bitcoin - needs to make a correction move up.

I'm switching from short to long for 1-2 hours.

Bitcoin is current trading @ 11,310 on bitfinex,

[traderperspective]

How did you develop your personal algorithm?

[Crypt0walker]

How did you develop your personal algorithm?

using different programming languages, machine learning (I'm a software engineer)
I didn't use any ready-made platform such as MT4/quantinsti/etc

[BTG-BTC]

Putting shorts on the bitcoin is too risky knowing that its value only goes up

[Crypt0walker]

Putting shorts on the bitcoin is too risky knowing that its value only goes up

you're right in saying it's not a good idea to go against a trend, but this case is an exception,
I am 95% certain that bitcoin is in a downward correction and will continue to see lower lows well below 9000 in coming weeks/months.

Meanwhile, to followup on my last position - Currently still in a long position since my previous message, will stay long for 2-4 more hours.
In a few hours once the price raises I'll return to a short position.

[mrproblem]

Elliotistic trending also shows it if you see last 4 month as 3 step increase then you need to see 2 step decrease which will be 2-3 months but if you see it yearwise it will not like that as you predict..

[Crypt0walker]

Bitcoin is currently trading @ 11,882 on bitfinex, I'm closing the long position and returning to short position.

can continue raising a bit but should see 4 digits prices again in the coming weeks.

[EdenDice]

Stop giving such advices because there are a lot of newbies in here, and maybe they will feel a little bit tempted and they will starting shorting bitcoin soon, and that is RISKY as hell.
Risking in cryptos is the worst thing that you can do, and you need ot have huge balls for doing it so.

with 3 percent stop.
Should start dropping very soon
* This is not a recommendation to act and is based on my personal algorithms

[Crypt0walker]

Stop giving such advices because there are a lot of newbies in here, and maybe they will feel a little bit tempted and they will starting shorting bitcoin soon, and that is RISKY as hell.
Risking in cryptos is the worst thing that you can do, and you need ot have huge balls for doing it so.

with 3 percent stop.
Should start dropping very soon
* This is not a recommendation to act and is based on my personal algorithms

EdenDice,

1. I gave a close stop, so it's as risk free as can be (Given that the bitcoin markets are 24/7, there is no possibiliy of loss greater than 3%).
Not only did the short succeed, but it did so while keeping such a close stop.

2. I am confident current bitcoin holders and traders are blind to the fact that holding bitcoin or any cryptocurrency at this time is far riskier than shorting it.
I have a suggestion for you - remember this discussion and re-read it in a month or two, look at the price drop in bitcoin since we chatted.

To clarify - I don't have any negative fundamental opinion against bitcoin, it's just a technical necessity based on my algorithms that the price will drop soon.

[kryptqnick]

with 3 percent stop.

Should start dropping very soon

* This is not a recommendation to act and is based on my personal algorithms

So are you saying now is the time to sell btc? I don't think this is such a good idea, you know. Bitcoin has been worth $20k and there is no doubt it will be worth that much after some time. I think it is still time to buy or at least patiently hold bitcoins and wait for easy profit. The same holds for other coins like ltc, iota and ripple which dropped for no reason (only iota has some) and we'll see them up soon again. Do you really think btc won't recover? Or were you suggesting to sell at 12700 those who bought at about $10k for an easy and fast profit?

[Crypt0walker]

with 3 percent stop.

Should start dropping very soon

* This is not a recommendation to act and is based on my personal algorithms

So are you saying now is the time to sell btc? I don't think this is such a good idea, you know. Bitcoin has been worth $20k and there is no doubt it will be worth that much after some time. I think it is still time to buy or at least patiently hold bitcoins and wait for easy profit. The same holds for other coins like ltc, iota and ripple which dropped for no reason (only iota has some) and we'll see them up soon again. Do you really think btc won't recover? Or were you suggesting to sell at 12700 those who bought at about $10k for an easy and fast profit?

It's pointless for me to talk about past events that you can't verify, but I've been short on bitcoin since 3 weeks ago, from $16,900. I wasn't a member of the forum at that time.
I had many other price predictions regarding cryptocurrency prices which were correct, but it's pointless to discuss them.

According to my algorithms the price will return to 4 digits, I will only know the a more exact number once Bitcoin drops to around $8,000.

So to your question - Any raise in price will be temporary, the price has to drop. I can't rule out some corrections up,
but I wrote specific timings in which it was the right move to short/sell, and also to flip to long once.

The main point is this - most of bitcoin's price movements can be foreseen in advance, I'm attempting to demonstrate that here.
So far in this thread I showed 3/3 successful predictions.

[tomahawk9]

According to my algorithms the price will return to 4 digits, I will only know the a more exact number once Bitcoin drops to around $8,000.

4 digits? are you spreading FUD? and why should anyone trust your algorithms? and since when did an algorithm predicted the price of Bitcoin? everyone knows that cryptocurrency algorithms that try to determine what the price is going be are completely useless, especially on Bitcoin which is extremely volatile.

Also, as soon as you mentioned CMC to talk about the BTC price, you lost any type of credibility.
Honestly, you're just another wanna-be Bitcoin prophet. If you wanna try to guess the price, and also get some feedback from other users, go to Speculation board.

[Crypt0walker]

According to my algorithms the price will return to 4 digits, I will only know the a more exact number once Bitcoin drops to around $8,000.

4 digits? are you spreading FUD? and why should anyone trust your algorithms? and since when did an algorithm predicted the price of Bitcoin? everyone knows that cryptocurrency algorithms that try to determine what the price is going be are completely useless, especially on Bitcoin which is extremely volatile.

Also, as soon as you mentioned CMC to talk about the BTC price, you lost any type of credibility.
Honestly, you're just another wanna-be Bitcoin prophet. If you wanna try to guess the price, and also get some feedback from other users, go to Speculation board.

tomahawk9, are you willing to be open to the possibility you are wrong?
Bitcoin's price can be predicted with much more accuracy than you can imagine.

I guarantee it. Test me.
Look at my predictions in this thread so far, they have been correct (I switched to quoting bitfinex price for the last 2).

See the current price drop since I switched back from long to short.

I don't have much incentive to continue writing my predictions, so if they are not welcome I'll stop here.

[traderperspective]

I am interested in the way you have build the algo (I am a data scientist). Without revealing your formula, what kind of parameters does your algorithm take. Do you base it on volume, TA thresholds/levels etc? Just to get an idea, as I think it is very interesting to hear what kind of parameters your prediction model are using :-)

[Crypt0walker]

I am interested in the way you have build the algo (I am a data scientist). Without revealing your formula, what kind of parameters does your algorithm take. Do you base it on volume, TA thresholds/levels etc? Just to get an idea, as I think it is very interesting to hear what kind of parameters your prediction model are using :-)

It's a system based only on historical prices, which is the only input fed to it,
the output is one of three: LONG/SHORT/UNCERTAIN + additional data that I can't discuss.

I will quote only bitfinex price here, but I feed it historical data from the api of multiple exchanges.
Sometimes the system will signal based only on one/two exchanges and not others, and sometimes they're all in sync (which is a better signal).

I don't use volume, except for threshold tests, meaning if an asset does not have
enough volume in the give time window the algorithm will not run,
so if it's a cryptocurrency or a stock with a very low volume there's no way to reliably predict its movement.

Bitcoin is great for forecasting since it's one of the assets with the highest volume in the world.

[plusalpha789]

with 3 percent stop.

Should start dropping very soon

* This is not a recommendation to act and is based on my personal algorithms

How does one short bitcoin, please?

[Crypt0walker]

with 3 percent stop.

Should start dropping very soon

* This is not a recommendation to act and is based on my personal algorithms

How does one short bitcoin, please?

There are a number of exchanges that allow shorting, such as bitmex.com.

Please be careful and always use a stop-loss when shorting,
and be aware it's not recommended for less experienced traders since you have to know the exact right time to enter a position.

[plusalpha789]

Thanks, which exchanges do you prefer for shorting?  What sort of rate, if any, do you pay for the borrow?

[Crypt0walker]

Thanks, which exchanges do you prefer for shorting?  What sort of rate, if any, do you pay for the borrow?

I like bitmex. The rate you pay is called "funding rate", it varies from day to day depending on market conditions.
There's also a comission which ranges between %0.025 to %0.125 depending if you make a market order or create liquidity through the book.