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欧日央行利率决议轮番轰炸 美元重要支撑恐将失守?
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欧日央行利率决议轮番轰炸 美元重要支撑恐将失守?
January 21, 2018, 10:50:17 AM
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FX1下周财经日历变得愈发繁忙,日本和欧洲央行将分别举行政策会议。日本央行将于周二(1月23日)晚间宣布利率决定,欧洲央行则将于周四公布利率决议。最近几周,这两家央行都登上了新闻头条,下周势将掀起市场巨澜。
日本央行周二公布利率决议
市场认为日本央行在上周宣布购买更少的长期债券后,可能会开始“逐步减少”QE刺激举措。这一度引发日元在短时间内强势上扬,当前日元强度已经减弱。在上周的抛售之后,欧元/日元已经重新回到了过去的高点,英镑/日元则于周四创下了英国脱欧公投后的新高。
日本央行下周将面对的一个重大问题是,该行是否会朝摆脱宽松政策迈出一步。任何有关正常化的言论都可能被解读为日元走强的一个因素,这可能会引发连锁反应,因为市场参与者正在为日本量化宽松政策的最终放缓做准备。但是,日本央行是否会真的迈出这一步?日本的通货膨胀率仍然低于日本央行2%的目标,直到上周还几乎没有迹象表明通胀接近于上涨。日本央行过去曾遭受意外举动的打击,包括在2016年1月对负利率的恶性反应。自那以来,日本央行已明显努力增加透明度,因此,如果我们会获得任何提示或警告,很可能会以一种微妙的方式。
美元/日元自去年第一季度以来一直维持区间盘整,因此对于寻找潜在趋势的交易员来说,可能会在其他地方比如英镑/日元或加元/日元找到更好的环境。
欧洲央行周四宣布利率决定
欧洲央行于去年10月延长了量化宽松计划,从那时起,主要问题似乎是欧洲央行是否准备在9月结束时开始逐步缩减其债券购买计划。就市场而言,其从未真正放弃过对欧洲央行退出刺激计划的希望;因该行在10月份延长购债计划之后,只给欧元带来了两周的疲软。到11月中,在德国国内生产总值(GDP)录得强劲增长之后,多头回归,此后买家一直处于控制之中。
本周早些时候,我们听到了欧洲央行副行长康斯坦西欧(Vitor Constancio)的评论。他表示,欧元汇价的突然变化并没有反映出基本面因素的变化,这令看涨趋势低迷了一两天;但是,在关键斐波那契水平显示支撑力度之后,买家将欧元推高至之前的高点。
下周围绕欧洲央行的一个大问题是,欧洲央行是否真的能够削弱欧元的看涨趋势。很明显,欧洲央行希望欧元走软,因为这种强势只会让欧元区经济持续复苏的前景更加令人生畏。康斯坦西欧的讲话与欧元汇率的走势是否已过度也存在着相当大的分歧,因欧洲和美国之间的息差并不支持这一走势。
尽管对于哪个市场可能是“对的”存在争议,但这个主题相当明确,因其是2014-2015年形势的逆转,因当时市场对欧洲量化宽松的最终到来进行了定价。欧洲量化宽松计划始于2015年3月的第二周,大概就在这一时间左右欧元/美元的看跌趋势开始。在接下来的一年半时间里,跌势持续,直到去年,市场开始消化欧洲央行削减量化宽松政策这一预期。
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