pie-in-the-sky idea to make a real salary with bitcoin mining

[rainyn]

I've been thinking.  It would be really nice to earn as much as a friend of mine who is an engineer.  Doing simple maths, I calculated that if I purchase 42 Radeon 6990s at current market value of $755.45 (from Amazon today) plus enough PCs to power them (21 cheap PCs costing approx $250/ea) for a total of $36,193, I would be able to generate enough bitcoins to make about $300/day.  Making $70K/year I could have the entire thing paid off in 6 months.

Here's how I came to this conclusion:
I found the average hash rate of 6990s from the Mining Hardware comparison chart, which currently is 759.18 (an avg of 11 entries).  I used the mining calculator to determine that hash rate would generate .48854198 B/day.  At the current exchange rate of $14.50/B I would need 20.68965517241379 B/day to make $300/day.

How many Radeon 6990s does it take to generate that many B/day?  42, based on the average hash rate I calculated from the hardware comparison chart.

I tried to find data on the 6970x2 dual gpu graphics card, but information was hard to come by, aside from some product reviews.

I know my wife would never let me borrow $36K but it's fun to theorize possibilities ;-).  Although something tells me this is not a possibility even if I did get that much money.*  Hmmm.

* http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=6566.msg96033#msg96033

[runlinux]

even if you did, the difficulty increases would kill your production... 300$ a day one week down to 150... 75... etc...

[Stormalong]

Plus the fact that its probably impossible to get 42 6990's at this point.

[ellipsis]

By my calculations, this will put you $49,097.04 in the hole after a year.

[pe512]

Also, electricity costs money. 

[Shattienator]

even if you did, the difficulty increases would kill your production... 300$ a day one week down to 150... 75... etc...

Recent difficulty increase was just 13%, not 50% (or even 100%). And the next one can be only 8-10%.
And it is possible, that there will be even some difficulty decreases.
Profitability depends on price, not just difficulty.

[ellipsis]

even if you did, the difficulty increases would kill your production... 300$ a day one week down to 150... 75... etc...

Recent difficulty increase was just 13%, not 50% (or even 100%). And the next one can be only 8-10%.
And it is possible, that there will be even some difficulty decreases.
Profitability depends on price, not just difficulty.

Recalculating for a consistent 10% increase only puts him $19,269.27 in the hole after a year. The price is probably already inflated, but being a little positive and putting it at $20 in six months makes it $16,018.39 in the hole. Basically, in the hole.

[rainyn]

And I still wouldn't be out of the hole to buy new mining equipment to stay on top of the difficulty curve.  Bleh.

[ellipsis]

And I still wouldn't be out of the hole to buy new mining equipment to stay on top of the difficulty curve.  Bleh.

Personally, I think you're thinking about buying the wrong equipment.

Optimizing based on the best Mhash/s per W, the 5870, and discount retail prices on equipment, running at 200W before the GPU load, you will need 1975 5870s @ $190 ea. and 395 base systems @ ~$421.97. Your CapEx will be $541,926.18 and your OpEx will be $591,694.20, totaling $1,133,620.38, to *gross* $70k/year. Your profit ratio will be 6.18%, and the *only* ways to get that up are to reduce your CapEx or not pay for the 3.9GWh. This is if you start *today*. If you could even supply power to this cluster, you would also have the warmest house in the winter and procure bonus tinnitus! I can recalc for 5830s/6870s if you really want.

[rainyn]

So then why even bother?
I know some people who mine bitcoins do so for the sheer geekiness of it all, the fun of playing with uber PC hardware and making it sweat.  I know some other do so for the idea of perhaps getting back some of their investment in hardware.  But surely there aren't very many other reasons, right?

I guess if someone were to just happen to have a lot of hardware already installed and at their disposal it would seem smart to put it to good use.  But it seems to me in the end it's just a rich man's game.  If I had disposable income I would probably play around with it like this I suppose - it would be fun!

[BitcoinPorn]

I guess if someone were to just happen to have a lot of hardware already installed and at their disposal it would seem smart to put it to good use.  But it seems to me in the end it's just a rich man's game.  If I had disposable income I would probably play around with it like this I suppose - it would be fun!

And there you go, you did enough research to come to the conclusion most people don't realize till after they make hardware purchases lol

You broke down numbers really good but I think there is just too many variables that would fuck up anyones guesses on how things will be over the next six months.

[yellowcar]

This cannot be more than a hobby or a quick buck to anyone.  Imagine handing your CV over to someone if this goes down the pan and having to explain what 'running a bitcoin mining set up' was.

[rainyn]

@bitcoinporn - The only thing I've purchased so far was a AMD 5670 for $59.  It gets around 86 Mh/s.  I also mine with my GeForce GTX470, which computes at the same rate as the 5670.  I've generated 2 BTC in the last 1 1/2 months :-/

@yellowcar - Good point.  But when you're unemployed, you begin looking at income generating options you'd never consider while employed.  And the longer the unemployment lasts, the more options one considers.  This is a poor vector of income for the unemployed - actually, I understated the point - this is an extremely poor vector of income for the unemployed.

[Furyan]

And I still wouldn't be out of the hole to buy new mining equipment to stay on top of the difficulty curve.  Bleh.

Personally, I think you're thinking about buying the wrong equipment.

Optimizing based on the best Mhash/s per W, the 5870, and discount retail prices on equipment, running at 200W before the GPU load, you will need 1975 5870s @ $190 ea. and 395 base systems @ ~$421.97. Your CapEx will be $541,926.18 and your OpEx will be $591,694.20, totaling $1,133,620.38, to *gross* $70k/year. Your profit ratio will be 6.18%, and the *only* ways to get that up are to reduce your CapEx or not pay for the 3.9GWh. This is if you start *today*. If you could even supply power to this cluster, you would also have the warmest house in the winter and procure bonus tinnitus! I can recalc for 5830s/6870s if you really want.

Wow, that was awesome.  I didn't expect someone to actually do the math, I was just going to comment on paying for electricity!

[rainyn]

If you could even supply power to this cluster, you would also have the warmest house in the winter and procure bonus tinnitus! I can recalc for 5830s/6870s if you really want.

I would use very good ear plugs and put a warning sign on the door to my bitcoin mining operation: "Danger!  Extreme Noise.  Ear protection Required"

[Miner99er]

Don't do it. Forget about mining... it's a net loss for everyone... a drain on your time and electricity bill... causes electromagnetic radiation everywhere... and the cops to come barging in thinking you have a grow operation.

/end sarcasm

[Furyan]

Don't do it. Forget about mining... it's a net loss for everyone... a drain on your time and electricity bill... causes electromagnetic radiation everywhere... and the cops to come barging in thinking you have a grow operation.

/end sarcasm

You're being sarcastic but abnormal heat is actually one of the ways the cops find grow operations.  A setup like that would certainly look like a bunch of floodlamps through an infrared gun from the street.

[Miner99er]

Don't do it. Forget about mining... it's a net loss for everyone... a drain on your time and electricity bill... causes electromagnetic radiation everywhere... and the cops to come barging in thinking you have a grow operation.

/end sarcasm

You're being sarcastic but abnormal heat is actually one of the ways the cops find grow operations.  A setup like that would certainly look like a bunch of floodlamps through an infrared gun from the street.

Invite them in for a game of Unreal Tournament. Also, Donuts!

[atxweirdo]

Also, electricity costs money. 

not if it comes from the extra 20,000 you spend on solar panels so you can line your backyard with them and produce your own electricity for your mining rig. just a possibility however...

[saykor]

even if you did, the difficulty increases would kill your production... 300$ a day one week down to 150... 75... etc...

different not grow with 50% so production not will drop with 50%

and... you calculate the price grow when difficult grow?