I am planning to buy 1 BTC. Do I need to wait few more days for a price fall?

[marilyn4325]

I think it is very possible that the price gets down to like $3k, like mid of last year. ...

I think that your prediction is extremely unlikely.
If the BTC/USD price would drop to the level that you suggest this would be below
the current average cost of mining a single Bitcoin.

The miners are heavily incentivized to prevent this from happening, because combined
they have invested hundreds of millions of $ into mining hardware, other infrastructure
and stuff like bribes.

I elaborated on this in this thread:
Why the Bitcoin price is not going to fall below a certain price point

I don't have to add much to the good answers in the thread you posted, most people think that your argument is not valid, and so do I. Miners would just shut off their equipment if it isn't profitable anymore. This would reduce the global hashrate, so the remaining miners, the ones who are probably heavily invested in hardware, would make more bitcoins per hash, and it would be profitable again. It is a self stabilizing system: the buyer demand dictates the price, but the price dictates the hashrate. The conclusion is that it is possible that it drop to $3k or even lower, if there is not enough demand. All the miner can't prevent it, because they won't buy back millions of bitcoins. And if they would, it would be just a small spike in the price, because there are so many more people and other investors who would sell then their bitcoins. Just a drop on the ocean.

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[Samarkand]

... Miners would just shut off their equipment if it isn't profitable anymore. This would reduce the global hashrate, so the remaining miners, the ones who are probably heavily invested in hardware, would make more bitcoins per hash, and it would be profitable again. ...

Thank you for your reply.

Nonetheless I disagree with your view, especially with the bolded part. Miners won´t simply
shut down their operations when it is unprofitable. Combined they have invested hundreds of
millions of $ into mining hardware and other infrastructure.

Let´s imagine a big miner in China with the following properties:
-he owns a few buildings and has signed a lease for several years
-he has bribed the local officials or acquired an actual license
-he has a staff and every staff member has an employment contract
-he has invested 50M $ into mining hardware
-he has invested money into other infrastructure in order to enable a smooth mining operation
...

Do you really think that if mining becomes unprofitable he will simply call it a day? After all it could
only be unprofitable for a short time if the price rises again. He is heavily incentivized to prop
up the price and so is every other miner, who would be in the exact same situation.

In short my claim that the bolded part of your response is wrong is based on the fact that nobody, who
has invested millions of $ into something will just shut down their operations and leave. Instead he would
do everything in his power to make it profitable again, or to ensure the continuation of his business
in other ways (e.g. ordering even more ASICs in order to mine more blocks).

The capital that is needed to keep the BTC price above a certain level is a fraction of
the amount that the miners stand to lose if the Bitcoin price falls below the average cost
of mining a single Bitcoin for a longer time frame.

[lifengpu]

Prices for bitcoin at this time are fluctuating and if honestly difficult to make a prediction on whether it is worth to buy it or not

[marilyn4325]

Do you really think that if mining becomes unprofitable he will simply call it a day? After all it could
only be unprofitable for a short time if the price rises again. He is heavily incentivized to prop
up the price and so is every other miner, who would be in the exact same situation.

They can be incentivized as much as they want, it doesn't matter. Bitcoin market cap is $146 billion. I don't know how much they have invested or how much they are willing to invest to pump the market, but I still think it is a drop on the ocean. Please explain how else they could pump up the price other than buying bitcoins and how do you come to the conclusion that they have enough money to pump the price.

And if the power costs are higher than the reward, then it is a no-brainer: E.g. electricity costs $1 million per day. Reward is $900k a day. Then they lose $100k per day, if it runs, but you make $0 per day if it is shut down. Of course, it might be not full-on / full-off, they might try to keep running half of it, and if everyone does it, profit still gets positive, but it doesn't matter for the price.

[mriansa]

I am planning to buy 1 BTC. Do I need to wait few more days for a price fall?

if you have that plan then today is the right time because bitcoin prices are still below the $ 10k price so be sure to buy as much bitcoin as you can. because if you wait for the right time again then that time will be very rare and long needed negative issues again to make the bitcoin fall.

[Itjoker]

I think we will not see retracing of Bitcoin price in the coming weeks. That's why it is better to buy it now and just HODL it.

[AVAMONEY]

I will say yes, buying now are good decision while a week later upcoming Chinnese New Year and the price will rising fast. Make buy now and hodl for a month you will get it passive profit.

[gabmen]

I am planning to buy 1 BTC. Do I need to wait few more days for a price fall?

if you have that plan then today is the right time because bitcoin prices are still below the $ 10k price so be sure to buy as much bitcoin as you can. because if you wait for the right time again then that time will be very rare and long needed negative issues again to make the bitcoin fall.

Well try to gauge it if you want. Btc isn't steady at a certain range and  there are minor dips happening every now and then. Im my observation, weekends usually give us a good window to buy in. Or wait til we're close to valentines or the chinese newyear since its expected that a lot will cash out then

[Bestfriendko]

I don't think you have to wait for a few more days. Now, this very minute is the very best time for you to buy that Btc. Actually it has already gained by 7.60% as i am writing this. But at this current price, you will undeniably still procure profit after hodling for some time. Go. 

[Samarkand]

...

They can be incentivized as much as they want, it doesn't matter. Bitcoin market cap is $146 billion. I don't know how much they have invested or how much they are willing to invest to pump the market, but I still think it is a drop on the ocean. Please explain how else they could pump up the price other than buying bitcoins and how do you come to the conclusion that they have enough money to pump the price.

...

The market cap is a bad metric for cryptocurrencies in general and completely irrelevant in this case.
Take a look at the daily volume of the big Bitcoin exchanges. Of the outstanding ~16.5M BTC (from
which 4-5M BTC are lost irretrievably) not even a fraction is traded on the exchanges and therefore
revelant for price discovery.

E.g. Bitstamp + GDAX (two of the biggest exchanges) have a combined trading volume of
roughly 40k BTC for the BTC/USD pair every 24 hours on average (of course this increases during
periods of high volatility). This is already a low number compared to the outstanding Bitcoins, but
it is actually even less, because a trade of 1 BTC is counted as a buy as well as a sell simultaneously.
Besides, the same coins are traded over and over again by traders and bots.

I´d argue that basically ~100k BTC are relevant for the actual price discovery while the remaining
coins are either lost irretrievably or are stored in cold storage, custodial solutions and similar stuff.

Can you now see why not much money is needed to maintain a certain price?
For merely 10-20M $ (an irrelevant amount for miners) you can easily prop up the price by 500-1000 $
on a single exchange, which obviously affects the rest of the market as well due to arbitrage opportunities.
Keeping the price above a certain level is even less expensive and the miners don´t even need to
inject new capital, because they can simply refrain from selling block rewards.

Keeping up the BTC price is increadibly easy for the miners, especially when they collude to do so,
which is highly likely in my opinion.

We won´t see BTC under 1000 $ / BTC ever again in our lifetime if you ask me.

[marilyn4325]

Can you now see why not much money is needed to maintain a certain price?
For merely 10-20M $ (an irrelevant amount for miners) you can easily prop up the price by 500-1000 $
on a single exchange, which obviously affects the rest of the market as well due to arbitrage opportunities.
Keeping the price above a certain level is even less expensive and the miners don´t even need to
inject new capital, because they can simply refrain from selling block rewards.

See last 30 days trade volume:

https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&t=b

More than 200k BTC are traded per day. That's more than $1.7 billion per day. Throwing away $20 million to pump the price won't change it much. And I doubt the miners would or could do this often. At least many miners would need to combine their money to buy Bitcoins, but then it would be more profitable for the miners who don't collaborate, so it won't happen.

[Victorycoin]

Prices for bitcoin at this time are fluctuating and if honestly difficult to make a prediction on whether it is worth to buy it or not

I doubt if fluctuation is a right word here, because the price of Bitcoin have moved from a low of $5,947.40 last week to a high of $9,070.64. What to make of that, is that the bullish pressure is beginning to mount and like we all know about Bitcoin, a rallying beyond the previous ATH, should be much anticipated, so don't delay anymore, if you've not already bought as much Bitcoins, as you can possibly afford to.

[mustafizur8400]

I think you should see the past history how the price is fluctuating. You should follow this quote"Never put your all eggs in one basket" because the degree of risk and uncertainty will be high.  The final decision is up to you since it is your money. You must be always ready to lose and gain. One thing is if you have the patience to hold on for a long time , you will never lose. Never panic when price of the investment goes down just wait and see. One day definitely you will reap. If you want cash return in the short run pls trade regularly your part of investment.

[naidray]

Most times for people who are not traders, I always tell them that if you do not know when to buy and the market is in a downtrend, then buy in margins. That way, you know you are having some good holdings on ground for the long position. Also, if buying in margins, always leave room for a huge percentage between those margins as well until you run out of fiat and then wait and see in few years’ time, how that has increased a lot in value.

Although, we are still going to be consolidating for a while, but I would rather say, anyone who already missed the dip within the range of $6000 should just get in now. We are still in a very safe buy zone. The market could fall lower than what we have now, but no need to panic and for those who still have some free cash lying around, can just buy more for the long position. We are about to start the new moon journey for 2018.

[nightfury]

You will miss the train if you are waiting for another dip because bitcoin is already rising today. Seems the stormy days of cryptoworld is already over and as we can see, cryptomarkets are in normal state already.

[Mrjitter]

I think if you still want to buy I would probably be on your hurry as the price goes up every day, but maybe I'm wrong and you really should wait and see what happens to the prices in a few days

[amaydel]

Waiting for price to fall is a good idea but you have to closely monitor its market price because if you only know, bitcoin's market price is very volatile that you may missed the chance to buy the dip if you haven't monitored its market price for a couple of minute(s).

[michellee]

You will miss the train if you are waiting for another dip because bitcoin is already rising today. Seems the stormy days of cryptoworld is already over and as we can see, cryptomarkets are in normal state already.

I think there are not too late to buy bitcoin right now although the price is trying to reach higher price because, in the future, the price will be too expensive for us to buy. so if you still have money, then you can buy right now but always take a look on the market and analyze the trend or the price so you can buy at lower price and if it's necessary, you can place the order buy.

[gigusico]

I think if you did not buy it at the time when you wanted you very much razacharovany but now, too, there is such an opportunity for this purchase, the price has not yet gone too far

[PalindromemordnilaP]

I am planning to buy 1 BTC. Do I need to wait few more days for a price fall?

If you have been closely monitoring bitcoin's market value the time it went down to 5K USD mark and have managed to bought it despite some FUDs spreading, then your profit this time will surely double or have been tripled.

So buy whenever you think it's time to buy for bitcoin will rise again after few hours or the following day.