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二孩出生数超一孩, 年轻人生育意愿哪去了?
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Topic: 二孩出生数超一孩, 年轻人生育意愿哪去了? (Read 110 times)
shiwe
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二孩出生数超一孩, 年轻人生育意愿哪去了?
January 24, 2018, 12:07:11 PM
#1
近日,国家统计局发布的数据显示,根据全国人口变动抽样调查数据推算,2017年我国出生人口1723万人,比2016年小幅减少,但是二孩出生人数比2016年明显增加,比重继续上升,首次出现了二孩出生数超过一孩出生数的情况。国家统计局人口和就业司司长李希如介绍,2015年党的十八届五中全会决定全面实施一对夫妇可生育两个孩子政策后,近两年我国出生人口明显增加。2017年出生人口比上年有所减少,主要原因是一孩出生数量下降较多。(1月22日新华社)
这一连串统计数字归结下来,核心信息其实有两点:其一,2017年全国出生人口总量和出生率双双下降;其二,二孩出生数首次超过了一孩出生数。这两项数据相互对此,一则再次验证了“全面二孩”政策的正确性,其在延缓生育率下降方面正发挥着越来越重要的作用。而与此同时,我们也应该看到,就社会整体层面而言,生育意愿与生育率的衰退仍然是一个不争的事实。特别是越来越多的年轻人连一孩都不想生,这无疑是必须正视的现象。
一面是更多家庭愿意生二孩,另一面则是更少的年轻人愿意生一孩。这一显著的落差看似让人始料未及,实则也并不难以理解。众所周知,全面二孩政策从2015年才开始实施,此前已有太多的“二孩”生育需求被压抑和积蓄。所以,这两年可以说就是一个“存量需求”被集中释放的过程。而值得注意的是,对许多家庭来说,初次生育早已完成,而二胎放开才新近发生,这中间的“时间差”,客观上给了这些家庭足够的缓冲空间,从而可以相对从容地迎接二孩的到来。
二孩出生数超过一孩,自然有其必然性。因为从逻辑上说,早早完成了初次生育的家庭,一般也是生育意愿更强、经济条件更好、心理准备更充分的家庭,其当然存在着二次生育的更大概率。此外,生育并抚养一孩的过程,也给这些家庭换来了相当的经验积累和情感回报,这反过来又会激励着其去生第二个孩子——常识是,当一位母亲感受到了孩子所带来的快乐,她势必不会介意将这种“快乐”再重复一遍、乘以一倍。
事实上,无论是生一孩还是生二孩,归根结底都可以还原为某种成本权衡下的理性决策。对许多年轻人来说,初次生育的“启动成本”是他们无法承受的,比如说买房成本、抚养成本、教育成本等等,随着相关成本变得越来越高,不少人惊呼“生不起”也是不足为奇了。而与之相较,生二孩的“边际成本”反倒可能更小,多一个孩子的新增开支通常并不至于“多一倍”……种种因素叠加作用,二孩出生数超过一孩,可以说是顺理成章了。
越来越多的二孩出生,当然是一件好事。可是,“一孩出生数量下降较多”,却又不得不让人忧心忡忡。说到底,只有设法降低生育成本,才能止住年轻人生育意愿衰退的趋势。之于此,一些切实有效的努力已在展开,比如说推行“租房落户,平等就学”等等。而沿着这一思路继续下去,相关部门可以做的事情无疑还有许多。
tansiqiu
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Re: 二孩出生数超一孩, 年轻人生育意愿哪去了?
January 24, 2018, 12:34:52 PM
#2
人口下降,物价飞涨,货币贬值,特色中国看不起病上不起学,房子卖不出去了,奴隶越来越少了,权贵阶层们着急了、现在中国人民慢慢醒悟了,穷人就不应该多生,不然自己受罪孩子也要跟着受罪、寒门难出贵子
biyun15399
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Re: 二孩出生数超一孩, 年轻人生育意愿哪去了?
January 24, 2018, 12:48:22 PM
#3
想从根本上扭转出生人口下降这一局面吗?把大家的收入水平在现有基础上增加三倍,同时物价一分钱都不允许上涨,此政策坚持一百年不动摇,就什么都解决了。
QQ2017
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Re: 二孩出生数超一孩, 年轻人生育意愿哪去了?
January 24, 2018, 01:21:56 PM
#4
社会压力大,贫富差距大,肯定就造成有人不敢生,有人不够生。能生二胎的人绝对有能力生3胎,但是有的人一胎都不敢生
wjqxpygg
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Merit: 0
Re: 二孩出生数超一孩, 年轻人生育意愿哪去了?
January 25, 2018, 09:46:23 AM
#5
没钱不敢生,现在的社会哪里都离不开钱!
HAI11
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Activity: 80
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Re: 二孩出生数超一孩, 年轻人生育意愿哪去了?
January 25, 2018, 03:21:58 PM
#6
都把孩子当成摇钱树!
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