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Author Topic: CME contracts expire and the BITCOIN price..?  (Read 316 times)
khanhnguyentraveller
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January 24, 2018, 02:18:19 PM
 #1

Hi all bro
i was heard that CME future contracts expire in 26 Jan (4 pm London time). Some big group tele said that CME future contracts expire will make the price of BTC uptrend

For me, i think that the cap of future contracts from CME and CBOE is too small with global BTC cap. and Owner of CME and CBOE can not make some big thing effect to BTC price in global

So how do you think about the BTC price after CBOE and CME future contacts expire..?

Many thanks

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As we Said Till 26th Jan Market will Not Have That Much Movement and This is What Happening at the Moment.

Market Cap is Also Going down a Bit, currently sitting at 510 Billion Dollars. Few Days Back it was Beyond 800 Billion Dollars

Don't Worry Guys Let The Big Date 26th Jan. Go Away then We will See Market Up-Trend Again.
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January 24, 2018, 02:44:40 PM
Merited by RealPhotoshoper (1)
 #2

I don't see these contracts affecting the price in anyway. Everyone was expecting a price increase when CME and CBOE decided to introduce futures trading and when it happened, the price wasn't affected. I wouldn't put much hopes on it.

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January 24, 2018, 02:52:51 PM
 #3

iirc in regular futures markets, the expiry tends to see a rise as positions are closed and people buy to cover short positions.  But the BTC instruments are options, settled in cash, so there's no need to trade the asset directly. 
khanhnguyentraveller
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January 24, 2018, 03:14:40 PM
 #4

so the information that CME and CBOE contract expire effect to BTC price is not true ..?
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January 24, 2018, 05:56:33 PM
 #5

so the information that CME and CBOE contract expire effect to BTC price is not true ..?

When the first bitcoin future contracts expires on January 17 (Cboe), the price of bitcoin is $10,991. Which where we are right now, $11,134, give or take. And after Cboe contract expires, the price of bitcoin somewhat recovered above $11-$12,500.

CME contracts will expire in the next couple of days, so if we're going to based on that facts, we could see bitcoin rebounded as well but we don't know if it will go to another rally or the price will go back to $10K-$11K range.

Let's see how it goes though, its gonna be interesting to see bitcoin rally and start another bullrun.

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khanhnguyentraveller
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January 25, 2018, 08:03:50 AM
 #6

i still need more idea please...
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January 25, 2018, 08:10:12 AM
 #7

i still need more idea please...

As they are monthly contracts the expiry will have very little impact. Traders that want to keep their positions open will simply roll them over into the next month's expiry. I really can't see much reason for anyone to actually use the cash settlement option. The only scenario where that would happen is if there was a large price discrepancy between the futures and cash markets prices, then there would be an arbitrage opportunity. Even in that scenario, the volumes on the futures are so low it wouldn't have much impact on the cash markets.

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January 25, 2018, 08:10:44 AM
 #8

This is so stupid. Have you ever looked at the volume of cboe futures? Its like 100.

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January 25, 2018, 09:15:39 AM
 #9

so the information that CME and CBOE contract expire effect to BTC price is not true ..?

On the day of expiry generally in our country , stock market do have movements as they need to sell the contracts before it expire. Mostly those days tend to end up in the red means prices dip but this is cypto currency and may not reflect the exact scenario like the regulated markets. But I do think it might have some downside movement due to this expiry.
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January 25, 2018, 10:40:54 AM
 #10

This is so stupid. Have you ever looked at the volume of cboe futures? Its like 100.

It's more than that, but still millions of miles too far away from being worthy to allocate serious capital to manipulate the Bitcoin market. People just want to grab anything they can when it comes to predicting an increase or decrease. Funny thing is that while CME is a much larger player as a futures and option exchange, but yet CBOE shatters CME's volumes like it's peanuts for them. It clearly shows that they have a massive first mover advantage that's paying off nicely. Another thing is that people here look at the futures as being something harmful because of potential manipulation, but at the same time, I am sure that the future traders look at Bitcoin traders in the exact same way. Both parties are afraid of each other. Cheesy

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January 25, 2018, 11:19:03 AM
 #11

Funny thing is that while CME is a much larger player as a futures and option exchange, but yet CBOE shatters CME's volumes like it's peanuts for them.

The CBoE contract is for 1 BTC and the CME contract is for 5 BTC. Obviously, you need to have a much larger account to afford the margin requirements on CME. Also, you need to multiply the volume traded by 5 on CME to get an accurate comparison.

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January 25, 2018, 11:36:46 AM
 #12

In theory, they should have no effect, since they dont control most of the supply, as it happens with gold.

However, they dont need all the supply to trigger FUD and FOMO.

Problem here is that people are confusing the holder of the contract with the intermediary fund which is holding bitcoins. They are two different entities. The holder of the contract is a person, the fund is a institution. The holder of the contract dont have any effect on bitcoin price, since he is not holding bitcoin, only the contract.

Why do you think gold and silver dont have proper value? They have low value because of derivatives.

http://money.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-money-markets-one-visualization-2017/

Look at how derivatives eclipse all the money in the world, even fiat. Derivatives are contracts which are paid in cash. This money keeps floating around, and is used for manipulation.

So the holder of the contract buy a short position, and the institution do the pump and dump scenario. It wont need most of the supply, because most of the newbies are weak hands, and the media already portrayed bitcoin as a dangerous, if not criminal, investment. Since theres low volume on the exchanges, its easy to manipulate, given the money these institutions have made with derivatives in the past.

Were not for the weak hands, FUD and FOMO would not be possible, but they are the majority entering the market right now. They already enter with fear, due to the image bitcoin have throughout the media. They buy with fear, they sell with panic.

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January 25, 2018, 11:36:51 AM
 #13

I don't see these contracts affecting the price in anyway. Everyone was expecting a price increase when CME and CBOE decided to introduce futures trading and when it happened, the price wasn't affected. I wouldn't put much hopes on it.

^^This, plus the fact that the futures are cash settled. This means that when they expire, no actual bitcoin is transferred to/from anyone, and therefore, the contract expiration does not directly affect the price of bitcoin.

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January 25, 2018, 11:40:26 AM
 #14

we need to check contract sizes and balances to predict affect on contract end date.
Usually at contract end dates valotility rises but this is the first contract ending date for bitcoin so who knows?


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RealPhotoshoper
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January 25, 2018, 12:43:57 PM
 #15

I don't see these contracts affecting the price in anyway. Everyone was expecting a price increase when CME and CBOE decided to introduce futures trading and when it happened, the price wasn't affected. I wouldn't put much hopes on it.
It shouldn't be a big deal to talk but considering cme contracts is one of the best way to promote how beneficial bitcoin investment .
I think it could attract more investor to come , hopefully. That's why some people have a big expectation about this.
So do i , won't put too much expectation , let the story flowing and i'll just holding.
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January 25, 2018, 01:19:41 PM
 #16

The expiry of these futures contracts won't have any effect at all. Because a) they are being settled in cash, not bitcoin. and b) for every person going short there is a person going long (the other party to the contract). So even if those going short try to manipulate the underlying market by selling bitcoins, their counterparties can try to manipulate the underlying market by BUYING bitcoins and they cancel each other out.

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January 25, 2018, 03:57:46 PM
 #17

admitting that there is an influence on the price of BTC, the settlement date is important that is 31 January (not the expire date - 26 January). Basically, admitting that in 26 January, it will be the last trade date, the reference date (when the parties will know what is the winner of the agreement) shall be settled on 31 January. In this respect, my opinion is that, if case of manipulation, the interest is to go up the price until 26th and dump it on 31st. You can see already that we are not in this scenario, but everything can change in cryptoworld
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January 25, 2018, 05:02:44 PM
 #18

The expiry of these futures contracts won't have any effect at all. Because a) they are being settled in cash, not bitcoin. and b) for every person going short there is a person going long (the other party to the contract). So even if those going short try to manipulate the underlying market by selling bitcoins, their counterparties can try to manipulate the underlying market by BUYING bitcoins and they cancel each other out.

Even if they were to be settled in bitcoin then it would still make no difference for the reason you described in your second part. The market always has two sides and for every person who wants to influence it one way there is someone wanting the opposite.

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January 25, 2018, 05:26:49 PM
Merited by Apened (20)
 #19

How many times would we be repeating ourselves? Bitcoin futures don't affect the bitcoin markets directly, so no, the expiration of the CME futures contracts won't do anything significant to the market directly unless some group of traders try to make a buzz out of it. It all boils down on how the market reacts or moves according to what event is presently circulating on the cryptoworld, that's why it's a great thing to be in the know of latest crypto news. I doubt there would be much movement, but then again it could end up either ways.

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January 25, 2018, 06:15:08 PM
 #20

I don't see these contracts affecting the price in anyway. Everyone was expecting a price increase when CME and CBOE decided to introduce futures trading and when it happened, the price wasn't affected. I wouldn't put much hopes on it.

^^This, plus the fact that the futures are cash settled. This means that when they expire, no actual bitcoin is transferred to/from anyone, and therefore, the contract expiration does not directly affect the price of bitcoin.

They will affect the price by the actions of the participants in that market.  Overall it should be a positive as it allows various finance firms to hedge involvement with crypto without exposing themselves overall to the underlying risk of holding a crypto token like BTC.

So its increasing business participation and allows reduction in arbitrage risk while involved.    It also allows speculators to take a naked short but then later source the bitcoin via various means in order to counter that naked short.  
So the closing of each contract could be significant as its marks the ending of each round between bulls and bears.   Heres my current take, I do think BTC itself is important, people even but finance can tip the scales also and they have ways to engage available sources of btc I think.   Just offhand I remember people complaining about JP Morgan shorting Silver, however they also took up an interest in a silver mine so they were hedged.   I expect CME CBOE would also relate to similar activity in actual crypto; I know dont the details of the links however

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