The game is getting hilariously apparent...

[alumar]

Typically I stay out of the speculative nature on price. I will make point's normally from a pretty safe position, observe and report, scientific method style with BitsBeTrippin. Things like this piece of hardware, with these settings, here is the power, output in hash, and rate of return given X difficulty and spot price at the time. Just facts, people can independently verify. So stepping out of that and taking in the range of speculative price targets that the mass media, market watch, 'analyst' and insert_random_dude_calling_BTC price call, i cant help but to make a observation and come out of the shell a little to make a statement.

All of the fud, price targets and bs around Bitcoin right now is a collective attempt to have the folks that missed out to get your coins at a cheaper price. People that's jobs are to find the next deal, make money with other people's money and understand wealth growth are not wanting to pay 19k, 15k, even 10k for your btc. They want to buy in as cheap as possible and are going to produce a news cycle manipulating every analyst they can to keep that price suppressed. It's what I would call financial physics .... apply enough pressure on the price spring and you compress any tension that is driving the spring back up.

Bitcoin has the Name, Branding, History, Utility (regardless of cost of transaction), Finality and right level of Finiteness (rarity) that will ultimately push it toward a true global store of value. No matter what any one individual, government, alt coin (features) say. Period. There are more than enough people in this world that hold Bitcoin as the proverbial Holy Grail and it continues the defacto standard through it all.

I would propose that in the coming weeks a few key points are going to occur:

• Additional regulation will be disclosed by both US and Europe, mainly centric around KYC requirements (will embolden the entire sector, onboarding additional capital, waiting for this event)
• Extensive price pressure on proverbial price spring will succumb and when it starts its climb up, its going to be rapid, bursting through ATH
• The fruit of the efforts over past 6 months (project progress over 3rd/4th quarter released at end of 1st qtr this year), which will show additional innovation in the space, driving more confidence
• Other big cash-liquid players will enter in the space officially, given a global competitor to Coinbase, You don't make that kind of money and not get competition. By 2nd Qtr Announce, 3rd Qtr operational

Bottom line, if you have BTC, if your selling, your giving someone nearly a 50% discount on your coins vs ATH. flip side, any fiat you put in now, your looking at a min. of a 50% gain vs. ATH.

**I am not a financial adviser / I am not an accredited trader ; That being said, I read the same analysis as all of you and have been in the space since 2011, mining, educating and attending the various industry events. Welcome counter points .. diverse perspectives are good.

[1714938632]

1714938632

[1714938632]

1714938632

[btcgreen63]

I have no clue what will happen but I agree that inevitable international regulation will stabilize the market and bring in capital.

One point: cryptocurrency is extremely technology-centered. Every day Bill Gates worried about some new innovation that could kill Microsoft, even as Microsoft grew to dominate. This technology-based open source fork heavy cryptocurrency market is wildly unpredictable, at least in terms of who will dominate. I do think the market overall will grow tremendously though.

[CryptoBry]

What can not be denied right now is that when Bitcoin is sluggish or not surging there will always be FUDs flying around predicting a very gloomy state for Bitcoin. I have read someone (he is identified as an expert) who is predicting that within this year Bitcoin can go as low as $1000 and there are also others projecting the eventual demise of Bitcoin...well even in the cryptocurrency market the competition is getting intense so that Bitcoin rivals are hoping that what they are endorsing will eventually kick Bitcoin to the garbage can soon. There are also those who are comparing Bitcoin to MySpace in the social media scene where Facebook remains to be the king ATM. These and more can be the reasons why I am longing for Bitcoin to make another round of surge way beyond the most important barrier which is the $20K level.

[alumar]

What can not be denied right now is that when Bitcoin is sluggish or not surging there will always be FUDs flying around predicting a very gloomy state for Bitcoin. I have read someone (he is identified as an expert) who is predicting that within this year Bitcoin can go as low as $1000 and there are also others projecting the eventual demise of Bitcoin...well even in the cryptocurrency market the competition is getting intense so that Bitcoin rivals are hoping that what they are endorsing will eventually kick Bitcoin to the garbage can soon. There are also those who are comparing Bitcoin to MySpace in the social media scene where Facebook remains to be the king ATM. These and more can be the reasons why I am longing for Bitcoin to make another round of surge way beyond the most important barrier which is the $20K level.

There is a chance like anything that Bitcoin could become generational... It's hard to compare it to a single company, like myspace, that's success was predicated on extensive usage to generate revenue. The speculative nature of a value of something ultimately comes down to peoples believe it is a good steward of value collectively. That could change over a course of a generation if people believe there is another breakthrough paradigm that truely changes our concepts of store of value. Even if it falls as a collectable, minus the utility use case, the rarity, being first, model 1 will all drive value. It may not become the 'hip' thing acting as the global frictionless transaction mechanism that enters us into the new age but is undoubtedly responsible for the next financial and exchange value/information revolution.

Lastly, anyone 'claiming' to be an expert on the 'valuation' of bitcoin ... take their analysis with a grain of salt. Even rock hard information such as <x coin is going to be listed on coinbase> before anyone knows about it just means you have inside information on a single activity, it doesn't give you rights to now report on all things related to the space. Most individuals experience is predicated on having a channel of information that may influence or affect outcomes with a higher degree of probability, but nobody knows the future. At the end of the day its weighted analysis only. Hence my analysis of what's going on right now in the space, no matter how true or speculative can be offset by a ancillary or completely non-correlated event.

[Silberman]

I have no clue what will happen but I agree that inevitable international regulation will stabilize the market and bring in capital.

One point: cryptocurrency is extremely technology-centered. Every day Bill Gates worried about some new innovation that could kill Microsoft, even as Microsoft grew to dominate. This technology-based open source fork heavy cryptocurrency market is wildly unpredictable, at least in terms of who will dominate. I do think the market overall will grow tremendously though.

You are not wrong, technology based industries are always just one step away from changing completely when a new invention is created, the same way bitcoin is changing the way people perceive currencies, however bitcoin is not stagnant, the devs are doing everything they can to improve bitcoin as we saw in the last year, so bitcoin still is the main candidate to become a store of value and the currency of the future.

[alumar]

I have no clue what will happen but I agree that inevitable international regulation will stabilize the market and bring in capital.

One point: cryptocurrency is extremely technology-centered. Every day Bill Gates worried about some new innovation that could kill Microsoft, even as Microsoft grew to dominate. This technology-based open source fork heavy cryptocurrency market is wildly unpredictable, at least in terms of who will dominate. I do think the market overall will grow tremendously though.

You are not wrong, technology based industries are always just one step away from changing completely when a new invention is created, the same way bitcoin is changing the way people perceive currencies, however bitcoin is not stagnant, the devs are doing everything they can to improve bitcoin as we saw in the last year, so bitcoin still is the main candidate to become a store of value and the currency of the future.

The core functions of store of value and being the digital gold is not having to be the fastest transaction platform or most featureset. Part of the lack of adoption for rapid transactions on bitcoin is how many are actually going to use it for commerce. One thing that folks that have been in bitcoin for a while will acknowledge is that when I spend my bitcoin on other things, we have robbed ourselves on potential gains. While that was a thing to do initially, the rarity, rapid increase of value creates a HODL mindset. When newegg began accepting BTC, at the time, we spent many bitcoin on hardware components, upwards of 200+ BTC.

[imapessimist]

I am slowly going off the idea of Bitcoin and might think about a much cheaper coin.  Because I don't have 11k to spend on one coin.  It's too expensive.  I don't see how price has to pump more when people bought in for only 3-4k a few months ago.  So they have already made a good profit.  And people buying before that made even more profit.  Why are people wanting others to put even more money in when a lot of money has been put in already and yet still the price goes down and down.  It's very confusing for people. 

[alumar]

I am slowly going off the idea of Bitcoin and might think about a much cheaper coin.  Because I don't have 11k to spend on one coin.  It's too expensive.  I don't see how price has to pump more when people bought in for only 3-4k a few months ago.  So they have already made a good profit.  And people buying before that made even more profit.  Why are people wanting others to put even more money in when a lot of money has been put in already and yet still the price goes down and down.  It's very confusing for people. 

Its just a simple math problem of supply/demand. There is a no kidding limited supply, so if the demand to hold a part of history (first cryptocurrency, that started everything), then over time it will go up as folks hodl, loose keys etc.

Ultimately, esp with the amount of new services coming out to increase the likelihood of people's ability to buy it, with less friction (segwit) price will have a lot of tension to move upward in my opinion

[bstewart]

I think you're correct in your thinking. This game is always how it has been though. The stock market does it all the time. The only difference is that regulation is coming into crypto and this regulation will hurt newcomers and benefit those already in the game.

So the idea is buy low before regulations stagnate the market, for a comfortable seat at the table.

[glaciercapital]

I am slowly going off the idea of Bitcoin and might think about a much cheaper coin.  Because I don't have 11k to spend on one coin.  It's too expensive.  I don't see how price has to pump more when people bought in for only 3-4k a few months ago.  So they have already made a good profit.  And people buying before that made even more profit.  Why are people wanting others to put even more money in when a lot of money has been put in already and yet still the price goes down and down.  It's very confusing for people. 

Its just a simple math problem of supply/demand. There is a no kidding limited supply, so if the demand to hold a part of history (first cryptocurrency, that started everything), then over time it will go up as folks hodl, loose keys etc.

Ultimately, esp with the amount of new services coming out to increase the likelihood of people's ability to buy it, with less friction (segwit) price will have a lot of tension to move upward in my opinion

I agree with everything you said, I think the real concern however is that it is becoming increasingly clear a few very large players control this market at this stage. As new large players join the market this will begin to reduce their influence, however unfortunately whales will still be able to bully the market

[Silberman]

I have no clue what will happen but I agree that inevitable international regulation will stabilize the market and bring in capital.

One point: cryptocurrency is extremely technology-centered. Every day Bill Gates worried about some new innovation that could kill Microsoft, even as Microsoft grew to dominate. This technology-based open source fork heavy cryptocurrency market is wildly unpredictable, at least in terms of who will dominate. I do think the market overall will grow tremendously though.

You are not wrong, technology based industries are always just one step away from changing completely when a new invention is created, the same way bitcoin is changing the way people perceive currencies, however bitcoin is not stagnant, the devs are doing everything they can to improve bitcoin as we saw in the last year, so bitcoin still is the main candidate to become a store of value and the currency of the future.

The core functions of store of value and being the digital gold is not having to be the fastest transaction platform or most featureset. Part of the lack of adoption for rapid transactions on bitcoin is how many are actually going to use it for commerce. One thing that folks that have been in bitcoin for a while will acknowledge is that when I spend my bitcoin on other things, we have robbed ourselves on potential gains. While that was a thing to do initially, the rarity, rapid increase of value creates a HODL mindset. When newegg began accepting BTC, at the time, we spent many bitcoin on hardware components, upwards of 200+ BTC.

This comes with a deflationary currency, in an inflationary currency like fiat people do not have any incentive to keep cash around and save for the future, this is why most people that I know have more debts than savings, if they have any savings at all, if bitcoin is a store of value then every single bitcoin that you spent could have been saved and sold for an higher price later, this is going to create an economy where instead of quantity business will have to offer quality.

[gentlemand]

You're asking too much of the average Bitcoin holder to resist these moves. Old hands are fine and won't sell whatever, traders follow the trend and don't care what the price does as long it moves enough so they'll sell or buy merrily into any bigger move, that leaves the scared kiddies.

They can't be appealed to or informed as to what backstage plans there are. People like that will always blow it. Let them until another generation comes along that's a little more hardened.

[EtherSportz]

I think that this is pretty good analysis, and I especially agree with your assessment - the ICO wild west days will probably come to an end soon. ICO's will survive, but they'll need to play more and more by the rules (which will ultimately be better for everyone, though will probably create a short period of panic). Legitimacy is good, and it attracts players with larger resources who have an interest wherever there is money to be made in a way that a team of lawyers can understand (and pursue if they feel cheated).

[aoihs00]

What is your exact suggestion over government applying their own set of rules in the coming days. Wouldn’t that be hilariously dangerous for us, the crypto community. I mean I do understand that the whole crappy stuff will be cleared up with the regulations and there won’t be any disturbing factors like ICO projects, may be no money laundering or terrorism involvement etc. but you do understand that how restricted that would be for a common to get into crypto. From where the funds will be made avaible? In the ecosystem currently, most of the people are putting money which they grow but do not re circulate back to save the taxes or they do re circulate it but don’t pay taxes. So that’s affordable for them in first place but it won’t be when it will be regulated. This can be downfall reason for crypto. Ideally.

[QuestionAuthority]

I have no clue what will happen but I agree that inevitable international regulation will stabilize the market and bring in capital.

One point: cryptocurrency is extremely technology-centered. Every day Bill Gates worried about some new innovation that could kill Microsoft, even as Microsoft grew to dominate. This technology-based open source fork heavy cryptocurrency market is wildly unpredictable, at least in terms of who will dominate. I do think the market overall will grow tremendously though.

You are not wrong, technology based industries are always just one step away from changing completely when a new invention is created, the same way bitcoin is changing the way people perceive currencies, however bitcoin is not stagnant, the devs are doing everything they can to improve bitcoin as we saw in the last year, so bitcoin still is the main candidate to become a store of value and the currency of the future.

The core functions of store of value and being the digital gold is not having to be the fastest transaction platform or most featureset. Part of the lack of adoption for rapid transactions on bitcoin is how many are actually going to use it for commerce. One thing that folks that have been in bitcoin for a while will acknowledge is that when I spend my bitcoin on other things, we have robbed ourselves on potential gains. While that was a thing to do initially, the rarity, rapid increase of value creates a HODL mindset. When newegg began accepting BTC, at the time, we spent many bitcoin on hardware components, upwards of 200+ BTC.

This comes with a deflationary currency, in an inflationary currency like fiat people do not have any incentive to keep cash around and save for the future, this is why most people that I know have more debts than savings, if they have any savings at all, if bitcoin is a store of value then every single bitcoin that you spent could have been saved and sold for an higher price later, this is going to create an economy where instead of quantity business will have to offer quality.

Absolutely correct, extreme deflation causes runaway price. Bitcoin has a money supply that’s tightened by design. The deflationary pressure will increase as more coins are purposefully burned or accidentally lost. There is no wise body of scholars overseeing the bitcoin economy, collecting data, reviewing the consumer price index and waiting to increase the money supply to avoid runaway deflation.

That’s the great joke on Satoshi. He must have been a fool to think forced deflation leads to a viable economy. The cheerleading poster that shouts, “to the moon, bitcoin will be $100,000 by next year” is probably right. It’s growth will be exponential. Unfortunately, he only sees his personal profit and can’t see (or refuses to see) the big picture.

It will eventually become almost impossible to have any kind of economy using bitcoin. The pressure to horde bitcoin at its current price level is already immense. People are incentivized to wait a little longer to sell and when they do part with their precious btc they go straight to an exchange. They don’t spend it. Imagine how that pressure will increase with a $100,000 price per coin. Now people with tiny fractions of a bitcoin are making big money from holding it a little while. Huge investment firms are rallying around bitcoin attempting to take control of the system. Devs are being outright bribed (or worse, threatened) to implement changes that favor corporate investors. Community development oversight fails when promises of the big, big money suddenly appear.

You realize that in the above scenario Satoshi’s vision is completely lost and bitcoin is a failed experiment. That scenario goes against the very reason Satoshi invented bitcoin. He intended bitcoin to allow people to send value between each other without the need for a bank in the middle of the transaction. When huge investment firms control bitcoin, bitcoin is the bank.

[gentlemand]

You realize that in the above scenario Satoshi’s vision is completely lost and bitcoin is a failed experiment. That scenario goes against the very reason Satoshi invented bitcoin. He intended bitcoin to allow people to send value between each other without the need for a bank in the middle of the transaction. When huge investment firms control bitcoin, bitcoin is the bank.

The idea of digital cash died the moment Satoshi decided on a hard cap. Hoarding and reluctance to spend is inevitable. That's what all humans do and no amount of cajoling will encourage them to give it up.

There might be some usage as currency if it ever becomes 'boring', but to get there it has to get through the speculative phase and become a store of value first. That implies a monstrous price.

Even then if you have USD to spend you're still going to prefer to get rid of that.

Satoshi's original vision may well be fulfilled by another coin, certainly not BCH, but that won't mean Bitcoin failed. It will have morphed into what its initial parameters dictated.

[QuestionAuthority]

You realize that in the above scenario Satoshi’s vision is completely lost and bitcoin is a failed experiment. That scenario goes against the very reason Satoshi invented bitcoin. He intended bitcoin to allow people to send value between each other without the need for a bank in the middle of the transaction. When huge investment firms control bitcoin, bitcoin is the bank.

The idea of digital cash died the moment Satoshi decided on a hard cap. Hoarding and reluctance to spend is inevitable. That's what all humans do and no amount of cajoling will encourage them to give it up.

There might be some usage as currency if it ever becomes 'boring', but to get there it has to get through the speculative phase and become a store of value first. That implies a monstrous price.

Even then if you have USD to spend you're still going to prefer to get rid of that.

Satoshi's original vision may well be fulfilled by another coin, certainly not BCH, but that won't mean Bitcoin failed. It will have morphed into what its initial parameters dictated.

That’s a good point. Even if bitcoin implodes maybe it will lead to something that does fulfill his vision.

[alyssa85]

I would propose that in the coming weeks a few key points are going to occur:

• Additional regulation will be disclosed by both US and Europe, mainly centric around KYC requirements (will embolden the entire sector, onboarding additional capital, waiting for this event)
• Extensive price pressure on proverbial price spring will succumb and when it starts its climb up, its going to be rapid, bursting through ATH
• The fruit of the efforts over past 6 months (project progress over 3rd/4th quarter released at end of 1st qtr this year), which will show additional innovation in the space, driving more confidence
• Other big cash-liquid players will enter in the space officially, given a global competitor to Coinbase, You don't make that kind of money and not get competition. By 2nd Qtr Announce, 3rd Qtr operational

I agree that we shall see regulation of exchanges, and perhaps I*COs.

As for competitors to Coinbase, I remember Circle once thought they were going to give Coinbase a run for their money. Then the bear market just wouldn't let up and they gave up. Coinbase didn't.

[gentlemand]

As for competitors to Coinbase, I remember Circle once thought they were going to give Coinbase a run for their money. Then the bear market just wouldn't let up and they gave up. Coinbase didn't.

Circle well and truly fucked up stunningly there. If they'd hung in they would've made untold millions with this bull run.

I know they still do Bitcoin stuff in the background but they should've been bright enough to stick it out on the public side. No market cycle lasts forever and it was clear to anyone with half a brain that the next bull run would be a beast, and indeed it was.

If I was an investor in them I wouldn't be best pleased. They could've kept it ticking over as a skeleton service.

[Silberman]

You realize that in the above scenario Satoshi’s vision is completely lost and bitcoin is a failed experiment. That scenario goes against the very reason Satoshi invented bitcoin. He intended bitcoin to allow people to send value between each other without the need for a bank in the middle of the transaction. When huge investment firms control bitcoin, bitcoin is the bank.

The idea of digital cash died the moment Satoshi decided on a hard cap. Hoarding and reluctance to spend is inevitable. That's what all humans do and no amount of cajoling will encourage them to give it up.

There might be some usage as currency if it ever becomes 'boring', but to get there it has to get through the speculative phase and become a store of value first. That implies a monstrous price.

Even then if you have USD to spend you're still going to prefer to get rid of that.

Satoshi's original vision may well be fulfilled by another coin, certainly not BCH, but that won't mean Bitcoin failed. It will have morphed into what its initial parameters dictated.

That’s a good point. Even if bitcoin implodes maybe it will lead to something that does fulfill his vision.

A possibility I have been thinking is maybe a bitcoin fork could appear focusing in that aspect, with no limit in the amount of coins and with a fixed 3% per year increase in the money supply? So if the supply of the bitcoin fork is 16.8 million at the beginning of the year 0.5 million coins will be created at the end of the year distributed by dividing that number of coins created and the number of blocks created. So instead of a deflationary currency we will have one with fixed inflation that cannot be manipulated by politicians and unlike fiat the inflation cannot be hidden like they are currently doing.