Chaos Prediction Center - gambler's calculator

[uoyeparannog]

Finally, I escaped from newbie's croft and I can post topic in valid section!

Orginal topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=281304.0

And here is copy of content, so You don't have to waste time clicking around:

http://198.136.59.231:31337

This is "Chaos Prediction Center" gambler's calculator, released just yesterday - designed for PrimeDice, but will work with any game if You can insert desired data in form (coin flipping, roulette etc.), also You can use any currency, not only Bitcoins - even if You play for rocks or sticks.

Technical notes:

1. Most useful for Martingale players, but anyone can use it, just ignoring additional data (like "overall probability of bust within X executions").
2. For technical reasons, very low odds are shown like 9.53674E-5% (it's exactly 0.00000000953674316406%). '.' after 9 may be a little bit confusing in this case - just assume that when You see some E, odds are low until I'll do something smart with this issue.
3. "The Deep Magic" calculations can't handle very low odds, showing only 100% vs 0% - whenever You see 0% on "The Deep Magic" - it's very low chance, 100% - just very big chance. It's rare case anyway.
4. "You'll end up with balance around X" is currently experimental and related only to PrimeDice - works correctly only with 49.5% win chance when You make x2 profit in case of winning. Don't rely on it too much if You use 30%, 70%, play roulette or something.
5. Not including extremely low/high odds, "The Deep Magic" calculations are accurate - why I'm writing about it? Because results are sometimes very non-intuitive. If You think that odds of losing 10 times in row with 49.5% win chance when You use beting bot are low, but calculator says that within 10 000 rounds You'll lose 10 times in row for 99.52% - live with it. Your mind tricks You more often than math.
6. If You have 97% chances to profit, You have also 3% chances to lose money! Bet responsible, do not play with money You CANNOT lose.

Domain, begging, marketing and things notes:

1. Yes, calculator doesn't have domain. Just stylish (depending on personal taste) IP:port.
2. Doesn't have fancy design either. Just simplicity.
3. Port is 31337 for two reasons. Reason one: I don't like that crawlers wandering around on port 80 looking for /phpmyadmin and things. Reason two: it's so classic!
4. No special marketing here either. Just link for someone who needs it, or single topic or Bitcointalk.
5. Reason for all that things is simle: it's not site made for business. No ads, no affiliate marketing, no payments, everything is simple, clean and free. It's just tool for anyone who likes to play gambling games.
6. Server hosts only this site and is very cheap: to be "just enough" for countings for X players at time. Cost is bit under 0.05 BTC per month. If You'll win some 1000 BTCs, it's not bad idea to donate 0.001 or so "For Server" if You want to keep calculator running.
7. Donations "For Admin" - to help me with earnign my first 1 BTC (i'm so newbie!).
8. Anyway and by the way, any donation will be damn big surprise for me.


In the near future when I'll have some time I'll add bit more functions and options (like "I have balance X and I want best strategy to earn Y with maximum overall risk Z, count it for me if such strategy exists" - no idea if current CPU will handle it, heh).

Let me know Your oppinon, enjoy and bet responsible!

[vlees]

Are the results calculated or simulated?

[uoyeparannog]

Calculated.

(If someone wants simulation too I can add such feature)

[grue]

3. Port is 31337 for two reasons. Reason one: I don't like that crawlers wandering around on port 80 looking for /phpmyadmin and things.[...]

If you don't want crawlers looking at your site, then why hotlink it on a public forum?

[uoyeparannog]

I don't mean web crawlers and web-based scanners, but ip-based, runned on IP range. Web-crawling based scanners are rare, it's faster and easier to just scan IPs - not very good method (sometimes on IP there's no content, maybe just /var/www default or so), but works, and works fast.

[uoyeparannog]

New, easy to remember domain: bitchaos.com (thanks again for donation Stunna!)
Currently it's just redirection - too lazy to configure DNS today. Will do it later.

[blo8i]

i dont think it takes in to count you will get a smaaler return when you change your winning chance.
Edit. i did not read your whole post when i said this. i hope the calculator wil have the feature to calc then you take like a 70% win odds.

[niallog1]

Thanks for posting this, im finding it quite useful

[moreia]

UAU!! Really congratulations by your calculator.

I have found it Fantastic.

Have you already got personal success betting with Martingale techniques?

Also, I would like to give you a suggestion to chaospredicition. Try to add in the results a line indicating the remaining balance if the bettor bust . Something like:

"According to The Deep Magic, overall probability of bust within N executions is xx.xx%, and to end up with profit - xx.xx%."
"In case of a bust the remaining balance will be aproximately n.nnnnnnnnn"

[uoyeparannog]

CPC will be down for a while. Don't loose all Your money meanwhile - remember, Martingale is 3vi1!

[Leehoya]

Would be really useful if you could add a stimulator.

[MoneyGod]

Would be really useful if you could add a stimulator.

as you describ we can use any site and any currency its result is good is some one use and have good result mean any one using this or no

[blo8i]

is the site down?? and is it for good?
if so do you guys have a site where i can make the same calc?

Edit. did not see your post about it is down

[knowitnothing]

Is your site different from http://www.pulcinientertainment.com/info/Streak-Calculator-enter.html ?

From the comments I take that you use some base bet amount, instead of asking for a streak length. But this link I'm pointing out calculates everything using javascript, so everyone can grab its source.

[blo8i]

Chaos Prediction Center is much easier to use IMO.

and i dont know how to use the other site.


even an idiot can use Chaos Prediction Center. it get up soon again

Can you tell us when you think ti will be up again OP?

[knowitnothing]

Chaos Prediction Center is much easier to use IMO.

and i dont know how to use the other site.

Do you happen to have a screenshot ?

The basic usage in the other site requires 3 inputs:

• Trials: Series Length: (n). -> How many rolls are you going to do ? Or, do you want to calculate this for how many rolls ?
• Streak Length (or more): (k). -> What is the longest losing streak you can handle plus one ?
• Probability of Success: (p). -> The odds you are playing at, if it is 49.5% win chance, you write 0.495 there

Hit "Calculate" and it will show the probability of hitting a streak that is at least as long as that you one you cannot afford.

It also shows this other information:

• a) Streak length (k) or more: '1 in. -> In average this is how many rolls you have to do to hit a streak at least as long as the k specified.
• b) Streak length (k): '1 in' average number of trials. -> In average this is how many rolls you have to do till you hit exactly the k specified.

But this is almost all written in the page, so I'm not sure if writing this here again helps.

[uoyeparannog]

CPC should be up again within around one week.

[Leehoya]

CPC should be up again within around one week.

Glad to see it back, any new features?

[uoyeparannog]

CPC is up again: http://bitchaos.com

No new features for now, but I'll consider every idea mentioned above (and possibly below) and code it when I'll find some time.