The thoughts of a bubble buyer

[SpontaneousDisorder]

If your interested in investing you should really ignore anything to to with adoption. If the current price was $5, bitcoin could still have all the utility it has now in the marketplace, velocity would just have to increase.

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[adamstgBit]

If your interested in investing you should really ignore anything to to with adoption. If the current price was $5, bitcoin could still have all the utility it has now in the marketplace, velocity would just have to increase.

Bill Gates could store half of his net worth in Bitcoin at $5 each?

no.

[adamstgBit]

If your interested in investing you should really ignore anything to to with adoption. If the current price was $5, bitcoin could still have all the utility it has now in the marketplace, velocity would just have to increase.

Bill Gates could store half of his net worth in Bitcoin at $5 each?

no.

I suppose he couldn't do it at $125 each either, could he? Is it possible that someone could at $125 but not $5? Wouldn't that mean less utility at the lower exchange rate?

yes, there's a lot of value in getting bitcoins value high.

Bill Gate is valued at $72.7 Billion

so assuming there are ~12 million bitcoins, bitcoin would have to be about 2666.66666666666 to accommodate half of Bill Gate's net worth.

but bitcoin has to hold most of my networth too... so 3K / bitcoin is necessary!  


its always fun to do bitcoin math.

[leemar]

Since most posters don't want to tell the OP the naked truth ( and don't want him to learn ), I'll say it again:
It was obviously a stupid move to buy close to the top of a bubble spike, and another stupid move
not to sell on the rebound after the crash ( which many people did ). That was a typical 'one mistake
leads to another' situation. So don't think I'm harsh on you, I made the stupid move to buy
in May at about 110$. That's because I was a total n00b back then. The right time to buy is when
there is ( most ) blood in the streets. And the right time to sell is when the market peaks ( these days ), then
wait for the bottom of the bear market and buy back more. These are very simple market rules, but most posters
want you to just hold to your overpriced coins. Well, maybe next year there will be another bubble spike.

What if the next time there is “blood on the streets” is when Bitcoin falls from $2,000 to $500 and you sold at $150?

[Tzupy]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

[ElectricMucus]

What if bitcoin goes back to the single digits and then grows 5% annually over a decades?

[notme]

What if bitcoin goes up and down repeatedly?  Most of the world won't care.  It isn't price that matters (thankfully, since nobody can accurately tell you where it is going), but the capabilities of the network.  Unless it breaks or something better is invented, it will eventually drag price up, but it will be a very bumpy ride.  In 10 years, it will either have cratered, or people will look back and see us arguing about what portion of the lower 0.01% of the graph price would be in.

[leemar]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

[notme]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

Yep.  He knows the future.  For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin.  As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

[leemar]

What if bitcoin goes up and down repeatedly?  Most of the world won't care.  It isn't price that matters (thankfully, since nobody can accurately tell you where it is going), but the capabilities of the network.  Unless it breaks or something better is invented, it will eventually drag price up, but it will be a very bumpy ride.  In 10 years, it will either have cratered, or people will look back and see us arguing about what portion of the lower 0.01% of the graph price would be in.

Exactly, I’m amazed how few people on here seem to realise that the market cap of all of the Bitcoins in the world is a 100th of the cash Apple has on its balance sheet and doesn’t know what to do with.  This is a binary equation if you know which way it is going you will be wealthy by going short or long over time.  If you know what is going to happen between week to week, you will be infinitely wealthy pretty quickly.

[Tzupy]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

Yep.  He knows the future.  For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin.  As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

How about you make some prediction, if you are capable of one. If not then please stop trolling.

[adamstgBit]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

Yep.  He knows the future.  For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin.  As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

How about you make some prediction, if you are capable of one. If not then please stop trolling.

i'd be more interested in your prediction Tzupy


what do you expect price to do for the rest of 2013?

[notme]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

Yep.  He knows the future.  For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin.  As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

How about you make some prediction, if you are capable of one. If not then please stop trolling.

That's my point.  Predictions are worthless... especially of the type you give.  Proper use of indicators can give you probable direction, but nothing is certain.  You, however, make up all kinds of justifications for short term wiggles and then lay it down as fact.

[leemar]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

Yep.  He knows the future.  For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin.  As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

How about you make some prediction, if you are capable of one. If not then please stop trolling.

How is saying you can't predict the future trolling.   I know this is the speculation sub forum, but surely you aren't saying you know what the price will be week to week?

[Anon136]

if you aren't a pro trader (you probably aren't) than dont try to be a pro trader. you will find yourself in the incredulous position of losing money in a market that is increasing 1000% per year. You were able to smell the future coming before any of your friends or family. dont blow it, dont lose your cool, just be patient.

[notme]

if you aren't a pro trader (you probably aren't) than dont try to be a pro trader. you will find yourself in the incredulous position of losing money in a market that is increasing 1000% per year. You were able to smell the future coming before any of your friends or family. dont blow it, dont lose your cool, just be patient.

+1

[Tzupy]

i'd be more interested in your prediction Tzupy
what do you expect price to do for the rest of 2013?

IMO the trend for the remainder of 2013 will be somewhat predictable after this current bubble period collapses.
I don't know how much speculator money will stay on Gox. There are 3 options: about the same, large increase,
and large decrease. When there will be blood in the streets this parameter should be more predictable.
We are now almost at the top of the bull market, in about a month we should reach local capitulation.

[xxjs]

If your interested in investing you should really ignore anything to to with adoption. If the current price was $5, bitcoin could still have all the utility it has now in the marketplace, velocity would just have to increase.

Bill Gates could store half of his net worth in Bitcoin at $5 each?

If you believe in the money velocity fetishist, all he needed to do was to buy and sell something, anything, really quick.

[xxjs]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

... or you could end up with nothing after having bought and sold 50 times.

[adamstgBit]

i'd be more interested in your prediction Tzupy
what do you expect price to do for the rest of 2013?

IMO the trend for the remainder of 2013 will be somewhat predictable after this current bubble period collapses.
I don't know how much speculator money will stay on Gox. There are 3 options: about the same, large increase,
and large decrease. When there will be blood in the streets this parameter should be more predictable.
We are now almost at the top of the bull market, in about a month we should reach local capitulation.

I think the "bubble" period is over, and a new uptrend has revealed itself, its quite steep and looks unsustainable, but when you look at where bitcoin is going its actually quite conservative. I say we will continue on this trend for months, at one  point the trend will turn into another "bubble". A bitcoin bubble really is the market pricing in massive growth.