The thoughts of a bubble buyer

[neutrinox]

People might be wondering if there will be a massive sell off when the price of bitcoin approaches the bubble values of this spring. Here's what I think:

I happen to be one of the unfortunate, who bought into bitcoin during the spring bubble.

This was after watching the price almost double during one week, and trying to quickly study bitcoin and understand how everything works. Finally I decided that I can't wait any longer. I just had to get some coins or face the possibility of life long regret. The day I put in my buy order, was actually the highest peak day! Then the crash happened. Luckily the order took half a day to execute and I got my bitcoins for "only" 180 dollars/coin.

My thoughts were pretty much "God damn it, I knew it was too good to be true! I will never ever try something like this again. I should have known better."

Despite my negative feelings, I kept checking out bitcoin every once in while, considering if I should maybe accept the loss in order to avoid even bigger losses in the future.

When the price climbed all the way up to 150 I was thinking "wohoo, soon I can end this nightmare without making a loss!". Then it fell again.

Fast forward to this day. During the last months bitcoin has intrigued me more and more. I have kept a close eye on the BTC course. I keep reading these forums daily. I talk to people about bitcoin. Bitcoin has started to represent hope for me.

And something has changed. I'm not looking forward to sell my bitcoins in order to just break even anymore. After all the trouble and heartache I've been through with bitcoins, I simply won't settle anymore for any small profit. If I get double the price I paid originally, I might consider selling. But if that would be the case, it would be so bullish that I'm not sure if I could let them go. So it's actually quite hard to see myself selling my bitcoins now.

My point is simply this: I bought into the bubble, was looking for an exit for months, but wouldn't take the exit anymore without significant gains.

There might be many bubble buyers who are having a similar kind of change of heart. And this new feeling is quite bullish I have to say.

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[rampantparanoia]

thats definitely bullish.

i myself see why btc is great, and believe myself it has a good future (if gov't doesn't screw it up somehow)... so i tend to hold some coins even while trading. you never know when the day comes, 2-3 coins could be worth a fortune if lucky (or pennies if not!)

[leemar]

Nice post OP

[zoinky]

oh i love self fulfilling prophecies.

[Tzupy]

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

[leemar]

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

If you want to trade, fair enough but if you want to invest because you believe in something it is silly to behave like a trader. 

You can forget about the ups and downs and wait to see if you are right or wrong.  If OP is right he/she is still in before the vast majority of people.  If he is wrong so are most of us on here.

[bitcon]

another thing to consider is not panic selling everything if it gets to a record high. i made this mistake when it hit $34 the second time thinking it couldnt get much higher, but it kept going to 266.  i can imagine many see 266 as another psychological selling point, but i will hold to see where the price goes this time.

[xxjs]

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

(with-sarcasm
|This is really smart, but there must be a bug in the bitcointalk software, for the post is dated August, 2013 not April, 2013. May be it should be rewitten in common lisp. It also does not explain why you currently have no coins.|)

[shark32]

Something similar happens to me right now, with the one exception that I decided not to buy in last time, which turned out to be a good decision.  
But nontheless, I kept an eye on the market and the forum after the last bubble collapsed. Unfortunately I was too much a coward to not buy in at 70, and instead bought at 105.

Whereas I just looked at the Bitcoin price and the market situation itself the first few days, I soon began to have a closer look at the whole BTC-economy. I search the web for goods and services I could take use of all the time, and think of things I could sell for bitcoins.
The point is: Im not really interested in converting into fiat anymore. Instead I'm much more intrested in backing the Bitcoins value by helping build up a living economy. Even if this turned out to be not quite easy at the moment

Maybe more and more people start to take over this ideology, and the utopian vision of a vital and truly free "Bitconomy" could become as real as possibly thinkable.

Just for the record: Of course I will sell when I get the impression theres a big price drop soon to come. But just for re-investing everything in Bitcoin.  

[rampantparanoia]

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

Wow, I didn't realize how easy trading was! You simply have to use hindsight and take all your positions in the past! I'm headed back in time to make a few trades myself. Later suckers!

Duuuude take me with you back to the $1 days

[thezerg]

What is interesting to me is that the time and pain may changed you from someone who was in it for a quick buck into someone who understands the value and potential.  Now that you are in it LT, you might actually end up ahead, as compared to buying in at 180 and selling at 300 (for example).

BTW, its a good strategy to trade in securities/commodities with good fundamentals.  That way if you get caught in a bull trap you can hold for the long term or even double down.

[Bitcopia]

OP's attitude is amazing and right on point. It sounds like you might be new to the world of investing, as you made a rather rash and questionable decision. However, you definitely have the potential to be a great investor with this kind of patience and ability to control your emotions. Most people who bought in at $180+ are sore about bitcoin because they let their emotions get the best of them, and they want to blame somebody. You took the time to understand. And for that, I commend you sir.

[neutrinox]

Thanks for all the replys!

For the guy who wrote I acted stupidly, you are right in the way that I could definitely have made moneny in between if I knew something about trading and markets. But like someone guessed, this was the very first time in my life I invested in anything. And I got burned badly. With that psychology it was hard to do any more "wise moves". I was following the BTC course and making trading decisions in my mind. I was wrong more than half of the time. I'm not sure if I could have made the right moves trying to day trade.

If you want to know the truth, there was one thing that probably had the strongest impact on keeping me from selling at a loss: foolish pride! You see when bitcoin crashed I faced some serious ridicule from one asshole that knew I had bought into bitcoin. He was telling me with confidence earlier that bitcoin is bullshit, that it's a ponzi/pyramid scheme and all that stuff. And I knew he was wrong because I had studied bitcoin by then. But just imagine his smug face ranting at me after the crash! That was one of the worst "I told you so's" I have ever received. So this guy is probably the biggest reason why I just couldn't accept selling with a loss. Maybe I will thank him in a few years!

[Bitcopia]

Haha ok so what I thought was patience and emotional control was actually just stubborn pride. Maybe you need a few more years.  Either way, it's cool that you stuck around and educated yourself.

[Zaih]

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

How is that stupid, how was he to know?...

There's no 'stupid' moves in trading in that manner, no need to disregard someone for such an obscure reason..

[Tzupy]

Since most posters don't want to tell the OP the naked truth ( and don't want him to learn ), I'll say it again:
It was obviously a stupid move to buy close to the top of a bubble spike, and another stupid move
not to sell on the rebound after the crash ( which many people did ). That was a typical 'one mistake
leads to another' situation. So don't think I'm harsh on you, I made the stupid move to buy
in May at about 110$. That's because I was a total n00b back then. The right time to buy is when
there is ( most ) blood in the streets. And the right time to sell is when the market peaks ( these days ), then
wait for the bottom of the bear market and buy back more. These are very simple market rules, but most posters
want you to just hold to your overpriced coins. Well, maybe next year there will be another bubble spike.

[xxjs]

Tzupi is off. OP was maybe lucky with his stubbornness this time, but he also used the time to investigate. The key is knowledge - ability - action.

[oser41eric]

That's because I was a total n00b back then. The right time to buy is when
there is ( most ) blood in the streets. And the right time to sell is when the market peaks ( these days ), then
wait for the bottom of the bear market and buy back more

Seems you turned to pro trader fairly quickly, lucker. If I saw the future as clear as you, I would make fortune as well 

[Rampion]

People might be wondering if there will be a massive sell off when the price of bitcoin approaches the bubble values of this spring. Here's what I think:

I happen to be one of the unfortunate, who bought into bitcoin during the spring bubble.

This was after watching the price almost double during one week, and trying to quickly study bitcoin and understand how everything works. Finally I decided that I can't wait any longer. I just had to get some coins or face the possibility of life long regret. The day I put in my buy order, was actually the highest peak day! Then the crash happened. Luckily the order took half a day to execute and I got my bitcoins for "only" 180 dollars/coin.

My thoughts were pretty much "God damn it, I knew it was too good to be true! I will never ever try something like this again. I should have known better."

Despite my negative feelings, I kept checking out bitcoin every once in while, considering if I should maybe accept the loss in order to avoid even bigger losses in the future.

When the price climbed all the way up to 150 I was thinking "wohoo, soon I can end this nightmare without making a loss!". Then it fell again.

Fast forward to this day. During the last months bitcoin has intrigued me more and more. I have kept a close eye on the BTC course. I keep reading these forums daily. I talk to people about bitcoin. Bitcoin has started to represent hope for me.

And something has changed. I'm not looking forward to sell my bitcoins in order to just break even anymore. After all the trouble and heartache I've been through with bitcoins, I simply won't settle anymore for any small profit. If I get double the price I paid originally, I might consider selling. But if that would be the case, it would be so bullish that I'm not sure if I could let them go. So it's actually quite hard to see myself selling my bitcoins now.

My point is simply this: I bought into the bubble, was looking for an exit for months, but wouldn't take the exit anymore without significant gains.

There might be many bubble buyers who are having a similar kind of change of heart. And this new feeling is quite bullish I have to say.

Just my two cents: Ask yourself sincerely if you might think "something has changed" in you because in the last weeks Bitcoin has been stable (or in a growing trend). Ask to yourself if you wouldn't go back to the heartache if you see the price quickly crashing to sub-$50, or if you will not shit on your pants if Gox go broke or the regulators get harsher.

Anyhow, my recommendations is not waiting for "something to change" in you as you wrote, because that means that you are driven by emotions, which is a big mistake. Be cold minded and choose a strategy and follow it no matter what. If you are driven by emotions you will get greedy when the price skyrockets (you confirmed this point in your post: "If I get double the price I paid originally, I might consider selling. But if that would be the case, it would be so bullish that I'm not sure if I could let them go."). If the price goes into an exponential trend and doubles every week again, it looks like your greed will push you to hold so you can return the biggest "I told you so" to your friend. Beware.

Same thing applies for the opposite case: you felt a lot of heartache, "but something has changed". Why? Because the price is stable and looking good? Just be sure the heartache does not come back if there is a lot of blood on the streets, a huge crash and it seems like Bitcoin is headed to $0 - because anyway, did you invest ONLY money you can afford to lose?

[RationalSpeculator]

Since most posters don't want to tell the OP the naked truth ( and don't want him to learn ), I'll say it again:
It was obviously a stupid move to buy close to the top of a bubble spike, and another stupid move
not to sell on the rebound after the crash ( which many people did ). That was a typical 'one mistake
leads to another' situation. So don't think I'm harsh on you, I made the stupid move to buy
in May at about 110$. That's because I was a total n00b back then. The right time to buy is when
there is ( most ) blood in the streets. And the right time to sell is when the market peaks ( these days ), then
wait for the bottom of the bear market and buy back more. These are very simple market rules, but most posters
want you to just hold to your overpriced coins. Well, maybe next year there will be another bubble spike.

I think your criticism is very good, just no need to call him (or yourself) names.  

[neutrinox]

Haha ok so what I thought was patience and emotional control was actually just stubborn pride. Maybe you need a few more years.   Either way, it's cool that you stuck around and educated yourself.

Foolish pride is clearly underrated!

Since most posters don't want to tell the OP the naked truth ( and don't want him to learn ), I'll say it again:
It was obviously a stupid move to buy close to the top of a bubble spike, and another stupid move
not to sell on the rebound after the crash ( which many people did ). That was a typical 'one mistake
leads to another' situation. So don't think I'm harsh on you, I made the stupid move to buy
in May at about 110$. That's because I was a total n00b back then. The right time to buy is when
there is ( most ) blood in the streets. And the right time to sell is when the market peaks ( these days ), then
wait for the bottom of the bear market and buy back more. These are very simple market rules, but most posters
want you to just hold to your overpriced coins. Well, maybe next year there will be another bubble spike.

I'm sure what you are writing is true and I'd like to thank you for the advice! I just want to point out, that I was never really interested in becoming a day trader. I simply bought into bitcoin, because I thought "the train might be leaving the station".

Just my two cents: Ask yourself sincerely if you might think "something has changed" in you because in the last weeks Bitcoin has been stable (or in a growing trend). Ask to yourself if you wouldn't go back to the heartache if you see the price quickly crashing to sub-$50, or if you will not shit on your pants if Gox go broke or the regulators get harsher.

This might very well be true and probably plays a part in what I'm currently feeling. But one thing has really genuinely changed and that is that I will either collect a big reward or hold all the way down to zero. Earlier I was looking for an exit that would allow me to break even. I am not doing that any more. I thought it might be helpful to share this psychological change, because many people fear a massive sell-off when we reach the spring bubble prices. My point is, if there are more people like me, the sell-off might not be so bad..

[Tzupy]

OP, sorry if I hurt your feelings, but I had good intentions. I wish you good luck in holding to your coins on long term.

IMO the train is not close to leaving the station. My guess is that at best BTC is going to compete with Paypal, and this
alone could lead to a price above 1,000$ / coin. But on short term, adoption is still slow, and the transition from
illegal drugs and weapons to mass adoption is very questionable. I rather see BTC used by companies to bribe
government officials all over the world, because BTC transactions are less traceable than bank account transfers.

[Cyberdyne]

To the OP:

Don't feel too bad, I bought [too many] coins at [much higher than] $230.

I'm still eternally bullish, and have had the opportunity a few times since then to add to my wallet at lower prices (eg, at $60 when I got the chance).

I have no doubt in my mind that the rate will get back to (and far beyond) what I paid for them eventually, just a matter of time.

Meanwhile, here's to hoping there are still more opportunities yet for buying coins under $100!!

[Rampion]

To the OP:

Don't feel too bad, I bought [too many] coins at [much higher than] $230.

I'm still eternally bullish, and have had the opportunity a few times since then to add to my wallet at lower prices (eg, at $60 when I got the chance).

I have no doubt in my mind that the rate will get back to (and far beyond) what I paid for them eventually, just a matter of time.

Meanwhile, here's to hoping there are still more opportunities yet for buying coins under $100!!

Much higher than $230? How is that possible?

ATH was $266, and a few hours before the crash the price was BELOW $230 - how did you manage to buy "much higher" than $230???

[notme]

OP, sorry if I hurt your feelings, but I had good intentions. I wish you good luck in holding to your coins on long term.

IMO the train is not close to leaving the station. My guess is that at best BTC is going to compete with Paypal, and this
alone could lead to a price above 1,000$ / coin. But on short term, adoption is still slow, and the transition from
illegal drugs and weapons to mass adoption is very questionable. I rather see BTC used by companies to bribe
government officials all over the world, because BTC transactions are less traceable than bank account transfers.

Tzupy makes a new prognostication every day.  He is mostly wrong (hence the need to change his stance so frequently).  Reader beware.  He may yet turn into a good trader if he sticks with it, but at this point he is making guesses and then talking about it as fact.  No hard feelings Tzupy.  Like you, I just want to help OP to learn.  Most people on this board are full of advice, but little of it is of any use.

[Tzupy]

OP, sorry if I hurt your feelings, but I had good intentions. I wish you good luck in holding to your coins on long term.

IMO the train is not close to leaving the station. My guess is that at best BTC is going to compete with Paypal, and this
alone could lead to a price above 1,000$ / coin. But on short term, adoption is still slow, and the transition from
illegal drugs and weapons to mass adoption is very questionable. I rather see BTC used by companies to bribe
government officials all over the world, because BTC transactions are less traceable than bank account transfers.

Tzupy makes a new prognostication every day.  He is mostly wrong (hence the need to change his stance so frequently).  Reader beware.  He may yet turn into a good trader if he sticks with it, but at this point he is making guesses and then talking about it as fact.  No hard feelings Tzupy.  Like you, I just want to help OP to learn.  Most people on this board are full of advice, but little of it is of any use.

Wrong on the 'advice'. Most people on this board are trying to mislead others, I don't. If I make a wrong call, then you may be 100% sure I lost money or missed profit on that wrong call.
So you disagree that if BTC successfully competes with Paypal, the price could climb above 1,000$ / coin?

[Cyberdyne]

To the OP:

Don't feel too bad, I bought [too many] coins at [much higher than] $230.

I'm still eternally bullish, and have had the opportunity a few times since then to add to my wallet at lower prices (eg, at $60 when I got the chance).

I have no doubt in my mind that the rate will get back to (and far beyond) what I paid for them eventually, just a matter of time.

Meanwhile, here's to hoping there are still more opportunities yet for buying coins under $100!!

Much higher than $230? How is that possible?

ATH was $266, and a few hours before the crash the price was BELOW $230 - how did you manage to buy "much higher" than $230???

$266 = Much higher than $230

Yes, I bought a lot of coins at $265-ish. It was only up there for a few hours but it was very high volumes being traded, and I was in there buying :/

Edit: I just noticed my forum activity is now 266.

[notme]

OP, sorry if I hurt your feelings, but I had good intentions. I wish you good luck in holding to your coins on long term.

IMO the train is not close to leaving the station. My guess is that at best BTC is going to compete with Paypal, and this
alone could lead to a price above 1,000$ / coin. But on short term, adoption is still slow, and the transition from
illegal drugs and weapons to mass adoption is very questionable. I rather see BTC used by companies to bribe
government officials all over the world, because BTC transactions are less traceable than bank account transfers.

Tzupy makes a new prognostication every day.  He is mostly wrong (hence the need to change his stance so frequently).  Reader beware.  He may yet turn into a good trader if he sticks with it, but at this point he is making guesses and then talking about it as fact.  No hard feelings Tzupy.  Like you, I just want to help OP to learn.  Most people on this board are full of advice, but little of it is of any use.

Wrong on the 'advice'. Most people on this board are trying to mislead others, I don't. If I make a wrong call, then you may be 100% sure I lost money or missed profit on that wrong call.
So you disagree that if BTC successfully competes with Paypal, the price could climb above 1,000$ / coin?

No, I don't disagree with that.

[RationalSpeculator]

To the OP:

Don't feel too bad, I bought [too many] coins at [much higher than] $230.

I'm still eternally bullish, and have had the opportunity a few times since then to add to my wallet at lower prices (eg, at $60 when I got the chance).

I have no doubt in my mind that the rate will get back to (and far beyond) what I paid for them eventually, just a matter of time.

Meanwhile, here's to hoping there are still more opportunities yet for buying coins under $100!!

Much higher than $230? How is that possible?

ATH was $266, and a few hours before the crash the price was BELOW $230 - how did you manage to buy "much higher" than $230???

$266 = Much higher than $230

Yes, I bought a lot of coins at $265-ish. It was only up there for a few hours but it was very high volumes being traded, and I was in there buying :/

Edit: I just noticed my forum activity is now 266.

I'm sorry for your loss

Since you notice 266 in random places I figure it sticks with you. I hope you succeed in learning a valuable correct lesson from it.

[RationalSpeculator]

OP, sorry if I hurt your feelings, but I had good intentions. I wish you good luck in holding to your coins on long term.

IMO the train is not close to leaving the station. My guess is that at best BTC is going to compete with Paypal, and this
alone could lead to a price above 1,000$ / coin. But on short term, adoption is still slow, and the transition from
illegal drugs and weapons to mass adoption is very questionable. I rather see BTC used by companies to bribe
government officials all over the world, because BTC transactions are less traceable than bank account transfers.

I really like your opinion. It seems way more realistic than the 'btc will conquer the world'.

Maybe one day it will but today the empirical proof is that the online porn industry as well as online gaming industry are NOT adopting it.

Surely this must happen first if mass adoption would be in the cards.

It is - actually - possible that bitcoin remains marginal and it's growth slows down much sooner than expected.

As speculators/investors we must put the facts in front of the dreams.

[Cyberdyne]

I'm sorry for your loss

Don't be sorry, I'm not!

[RationalSpeculator]

I'm sorry for your loss

Don't be sorry, I'm not!

I meant to express my sympathy for the pain you experienced by losing.

Did you experience pain? 

[RodeoX]

I think it is just to early to tell what bitcoin is going to do. The client is in beta, few have heard of bitcoin, most of the major markets are still untapped (foreign remittance for example). We are still in the early adoption phase, and likely will be for a few years.

[Cyberdyne]

I'm sorry for your loss

Don't be sorry, I'm not!

I meant to express my sympathy for the pain you experienced by losing.

Did you experience pain? 

Not really. You could say I was slightly annoyed. But being a bull I was also happy to have the opportunity to buy some at lower prices.

[oda.krell]

To the OP:

Don't feel too bad, I bought [too many] coins at [much higher than] $230.

I'm still eternally bullish, and have had the opportunity a few times since then to add to my wallet at lower prices (eg, at $60 when I got the chance).

I have no doubt in my mind that the rate will get back to (and far beyond) what I paid for them eventually, just a matter of time.

Meanwhile, here's to hoping there are still more opportunities yet for buying coins under $100!!

Much higher than $230? How is that possible?

ATH was $266, and a few hours before the crash the price was BELOW $230 - how did you manage to buy "much higher" than $230???

$266 = Much higher than $230

Yes, I bought a lot of coins at $265-ish. It was only up there for a few hours but it was very high volumes being traded, and I was in there buying :/

Edit: I just noticed my forum activity is now 266.

"Insult? Meet injury. Injury, that's insult."

[RodeoX]

For perspective, look at your losses in the NYSE this week.

[notme]

For perspective, look at your losses in the NYSE this week.

SPXU FTW

[kneim]

@neutrinox

You want to make money? I think I cannot help you then. I'm only interested in holding assets. I do not believe in EUR or USD any more.

I try it with a hint:

1) You trust in two assets A and B, but not in USD
You are holding 10000 times asset A which is worth 1 USD each.
And you are holding 100 times asset B which is worth 100 USD each.
I mention the worth in USD only for the relation of the assets, so in this example one share of B is 100 times as worth as one share of A

2) Think about asset B is "crashing" to the half
Now you are holding 10000 times asset A.
And you are holding 100 times asset B which is worth 50 times of asset A each.

3) What can you do now?
Sell B and buy A
Now you are holding 15000 times asset A, 50% more than before. 25% loss. PANIC!

4) As an alternative?
Sell A and buy B
Now you are holding 300 times asset B, 200% more than before. 50% gain. ENJOY!

5) Compare 3) and 4)
What I want so say is, nothing did change really. Because directly after the "crash" you own the same number of shares as before.

So, as a conclusion for you: Invest only in assets that you really believe in. In this sense BTC can fail as every other share can, so distribute your savings to other independant assets too. This is not for getting rich quickly, but slowly and for sure. Invest anti-cyclical. This is boring, but you benefit from greed, panic, and manipulation. Don't blame others from their recommendation, it's your decision alone. If you do want to become rich quickly, I cannot help you.

[Gabi]

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

Hi, can i borrow your crystal sphere? I want to predict the future too.

[xxjs]

OP, sorry if I hurt your feelings, but I had good intentions. I wish you good luck in holding to your coins on long term.

IMO the train is not close to leaving the station. My guess is that at best BTC is going to compete with Paypal, and this
alone could lead to a price above 1,000$ / coin. But on short term, adoption is still slow, and the transition from
illegal drugs and weapons to mass adoption is very questionable. I rather see BTC used by companies to bribe
government officials all over the world, because BTC transactions are less traceable than bank account transfers.

While it can be interesting to compare the transaction volume in paypal with the transaction volume in bitcoin, the two systems are so different the comparison is not all that relevant. Major differences: Paypal is dependent on the banking system in each end, bitcoin does not. It makes no sense to save in paypal, "paypals" (dollar deposits in paypal) are sometimes hard to get out, but it makes sense to save in bitcoins. Bitcoin can operate in all but the most totalitarian countries, paypal can not.

[SpontaneousDisorder]

If your interested in investing you should really ignore anything to to with adoption. If the current price was $5, bitcoin could still have all the utility it has now in the marketplace, velocity would just have to increase.

[adamstgBit]

If your interested in investing you should really ignore anything to to with adoption. If the current price was $5, bitcoin could still have all the utility it has now in the marketplace, velocity would just have to increase.

Bill Gates could store half of his net worth in Bitcoin at $5 each?

no.

[adamstgBit]

If your interested in investing you should really ignore anything to to with adoption. If the current price was $5, bitcoin could still have all the utility it has now in the marketplace, velocity would just have to increase.

Bill Gates could store half of his net worth in Bitcoin at $5 each?

no.

I suppose he couldn't do it at $125 each either, could he? Is it possible that someone could at $125 but not $5? Wouldn't that mean less utility at the lower exchange rate?

yes, there's a lot of value in getting bitcoins value high.

Bill Gate is valued at $72.7 Billion

so assuming there are ~12 million bitcoins, bitcoin would have to be about 2666.66666666666 to accommodate half of Bill Gate's net worth.

but bitcoin has to hold most of my networth too... so 3K / bitcoin is necessary!  


its always fun to do bitcoin math.

[leemar]

Since most posters don't want to tell the OP the naked truth ( and don't want him to learn ), I'll say it again:
It was obviously a stupid move to buy close to the top of a bubble spike, and another stupid move
not to sell on the rebound after the crash ( which many people did ). That was a typical 'one mistake
leads to another' situation. So don't think I'm harsh on you, I made the stupid move to buy
in May at about 110$. That's because I was a total n00b back then. The right time to buy is when
there is ( most ) blood in the streets. And the right time to sell is when the market peaks ( these days ), then
wait for the bottom of the bear market and buy back more. These are very simple market rules, but most posters
want you to just hold to your overpriced coins. Well, maybe next year there will be another bubble spike.

What if the next time there is “blood on the streets” is when Bitcoin falls from $2,000 to $500 and you sold at $150?

[Tzupy]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

[ElectricMucus]

What if bitcoin goes back to the single digits and then grows 5% annually over a decades?

[notme]

What if bitcoin goes up and down repeatedly?  Most of the world won't care.  It isn't price that matters (thankfully, since nobody can accurately tell you where it is going), but the capabilities of the network.  Unless it breaks or something better is invented, it will eventually drag price up, but it will be a very bumpy ride.  In 10 years, it will either have cratered, or people will look back and see us arguing about what portion of the lower 0.01% of the graph price would be in.

[leemar]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

[notme]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

Yep.  He knows the future.  For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin.  As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

[leemar]

What if bitcoin goes up and down repeatedly?  Most of the world won't care.  It isn't price that matters (thankfully, since nobody can accurately tell you where it is going), but the capabilities of the network.  Unless it breaks or something better is invented, it will eventually drag price up, but it will be a very bumpy ride.  In 10 years, it will either have cratered, or people will look back and see us arguing about what portion of the lower 0.01% of the graph price would be in.

Exactly, I’m amazed how few people on here seem to realise that the market cap of all of the Bitcoins in the world is a 100th of the cash Apple has on its balance sheet and doesn’t know what to do with.  This is a binary equation if you know which way it is going you will be wealthy by going short or long over time.  If you know what is going to happen between week to week, you will be infinitely wealthy pretty quickly.

[Tzupy]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

Yep.  He knows the future.  For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin.  As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

How about you make some prediction, if you are capable of one. If not then please stop trolling.

[adamstgBit]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

Yep.  He knows the future.  For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin.  As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

How about you make some prediction, if you are capable of one. If not then please stop trolling.

i'd be more interested in your prediction Tzupy


what do you expect price to do for the rest of 2013?

[notme]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

Yep.  He knows the future.  For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin.  As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

How about you make some prediction, if you are capable of one. If not then please stop trolling.

That's my point.  Predictions are worthless... especially of the type you give.  Proper use of indicators can give you probable direction, but nothing is certain.  You, however, make up all kinds of justifications for short term wiggles and then lay it down as fact.

[leemar]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

Ah, I didn’t realise you had a crystal ball….

Yep.  He knows the future.  For some reason, it looks nothing like the past of bitcoin.  As they say "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

How about you make some prediction, if you are capable of one. If not then please stop trolling.

How is saying you can't predict the future trolling.   I know this is the speculation sub forum, but surely you aren't saying you know what the price will be week to week?

[Anon136]

if you aren't a pro trader (you probably aren't) than dont try to be a pro trader. you will find yourself in the incredulous position of losing money in a market that is increasing 1000% per year. You were able to smell the future coming before any of your friends or family. dont blow it, dont lose your cool, just be patient.

[notme]

if you aren't a pro trader (you probably aren't) than dont try to be a pro trader. you will find yourself in the incredulous position of losing money in a market that is increasing 1000% per year. You were able to smell the future coming before any of your friends or family. dont blow it, dont lose your cool, just be patient.

+1

[Tzupy]

i'd be more interested in your prediction Tzupy
what do you expect price to do for the rest of 2013?

IMO the trend for the remainder of 2013 will be somewhat predictable after this current bubble period collapses.
I don't know how much speculator money will stay on Gox. There are 3 options: about the same, large increase,
and large decrease. When there will be blood in the streets this parameter should be more predictable.
We are now almost at the top of the bull market, in about a month we should reach local capitulation.

[xxjs]

If your interested in investing you should really ignore anything to to with adoption. If the current price was $5, bitcoin could still have all the utility it has now in the marketplace, velocity would just have to increase.

Bill Gates could store half of his net worth in Bitcoin at $5 each?

If you believe in the money velocity fetishist, all he needed to do was to buy and sell something, anything, really quick.

[xxjs]

This is a silly question, but I'll answer anyway: by the time BTC will reach 2,000$, probably in a 2015 bubble spike,
I will have bought and sold about 100 times, of course if nothing catastrophic happens in the meantime.
If this winter BTC will rise to a maximum of about 150$, I will be glad to sell at that price, knowing that after
capitulation I'll be able to buy back at about 100$. That's not what I'm worried about, it would be great BTC
to rise to 150$ during the next bubble period. But the big unknown ( to me ) is how much speculator money
is going to stay on Gox after this bubble period collapses. If the bubble deflates completely, the price could
drop to the 50s and kind of stabilize, and I would hate that, it would be more difficult for me to make a profit.

... or you could end up with nothing after having bought and sold 50 times.

[adamstgBit]

i'd be more interested in your prediction Tzupy
what do you expect price to do for the rest of 2013?

IMO the trend for the remainder of 2013 will be somewhat predictable after this current bubble period collapses.
I don't know how much speculator money will stay on Gox. There are 3 options: about the same, large increase,
and large decrease. When there will be blood in the streets this parameter should be more predictable.
We are now almost at the top of the bull market, in about a month we should reach local capitulation.

I think the "bubble" period is over, and a new uptrend has revealed itself, its quite steep and looks unsustainable, but when you look at where bitcoin is going its actually quite conservative. I say we will continue on this trend for months, at one  point the trend will turn into another "bubble". A bitcoin bubble really is the market pricing in massive growth.

[Kaiji]

All i know is this is the time to get into bitcoins while prices are fairly low but very few people are buying. If there is another bubble this fall or next spring you will find thousands of people actually buying coins while the price is high and getting higher and then they get burnt on the downturn. It's a world of sheep out there. If the herd is not buying coins then the average buyer will not buy. At least the the original poster of this thread figured this out and is holding onto his coins rather than panic selling.

[kneim]

There are now opportunities in turkey, indonesia, india, brasil and others. Panic is good for investments. But buy only on  a low rate, because the drop can continue.

[yurimir]

i'd be more interested in your prediction Tzupy
what do you expect price to do for the rest of 2013?

IMO the trend for the remainder of 2013 will be somewhat predictable after this current bubble period collapses.
I don't know how much speculator money will stay on Gox. There are 3 options: about the same, large increase,
and large decrease. When there will be blood in the streets this parameter should be more predictable.
We are now almost at the top of the bull market, in about a month we should reach local capitulation.

I think the "bubble" period is over, and a new uptrend has revealed itself, its quite steep and looks unsustainable, but when you look at where bitcoin is going its actually quite conservative. I say we will continue on this trend for months, at one  point the trend will turn into another "bubble". A bitcoin bubble really is the market pricing in massive growth.

the "bubble" period is over 

[cbeast]

The Bubble Buyer's Daily Affirmation: When one bubble pops, another bubble begins!

[RationalSpeculator]

All i know is this is the time to get into bitcoins while prices are fairly low but very few people are buying. If there is another bubble this fall or next spring you will find thousands of people actually buying coins while the price is high and getting higher and then they get burnt on the downturn. It's a world of sheep out there. If the herd is not buying coins then the average buyer will not buy. At least the the original poster of this thread figured this out and is holding onto his coins rather than panic selling.

What worries me is that hope is still widespread among the herd that bought in at $150+. I have not noticed any selling by them though I have few contact with such investors. I did not experience the recent drop to $65 as capitulation but I did experience fear for the first time since the collapse started (with the exception of the flashcrash the first week).

I think it is correct to say that 2013 was the biggest bubble in bitcoin. The hyperbolic rise took 3 months, 50% longer than all the other parabolic rises, even the one in 2011. So why would the correction be equally short as the others?

I trust reversion to the long term, already exponential, growth line more than an acceleration in growth beyond exponential going into singularity. That means we are currently targeting $40 and by the end of the year $70. I will load the boat then and am continuing to reduce my position as the price goes up. If I prove to be wrong and price goes above $266 I will stop selling as to have still some coins if it were to go straight to $1000. Very low chance but it's possible.

[farlack]

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

You must be a billionaire by now by using this tactic, you're a genius so damn smart.



Bitcoin isn't a stock, and should not be used to make a quick buck, the number 1 thing to understand if you use bitcoin to trade like stock, or any stock for that matter is... It doesn't matter if you buy at $500 and its worth $100, you didn't lose $400 per, unless you sell it. Unless the company, or bitcoin in this case goes bankrupt, or becomes obsolete, it will only go up in time.

[RationalSpeculator]

I am sorry for the OP, but he acted stupidly. Selling at 150 would have allowed him to buy back at 100, then sell at 130
and buy back at 70, resulting in a doubling of his coins. OP, if you aren't willing to take a small loss in order to avoid a greater
loss and create the premises for a future win, you'll just have to wait until BTC grows enough to make a profit.

You must be a billionaire by now by using this tactic, you're a genius so damn smart.



...It doesn't matter if you buy at $500 and its worth $100, you didn't lose $400,  unless you sell it. ...

If only that was true, I would be a billionaire

[Wekkel]

All i know is this is the time to get into bitcoins while prices are fairly low but very few people are buying. If there is another bubble this fall or next spring you will find thousands of people actually buying coins while the price is high and getting higher and then they get burnt on the downturn. It's a world of sheep out there. If the herd is not buying coins then the average buyer will not buy. At least the the original poster of this thread figured this out and is holding onto his coins rather than panic selling.

....
I trust reversion to the long term, ......

We will undershooth SMA200 at some point, now hovering around $95.

[oda.krell]

All i know is this is the time to get into bitcoins while prices are fairly low but very few people are buying. If there is another bubble this fall or next spring you will find thousands of people actually buying coins while the price is high and getting higher and then they get burnt on the downturn. It's a world of sheep out there. If the herd is not buying coins then the average buyer will not buy. At least the the original poster of this thread figured this out and is holding onto his coins rather than panic selling.

....
I trust reversion to the long term, ......

We will undershooth SMA200 at some point, now hovering around $95.

That's a bit of an amusing argument: the more obvious conclusion of price being above both 1d SMA200 and 100 is that we're stable/going up.

[Wekkel]

All i know is this is the time to get into bitcoins while prices are fairly low but very few people are buying. If there is another bubble this fall or next spring you will find thousands of people actually buying coins while the price is high and getting higher and then they get burnt on the downturn. It's a world of sheep out there. If the herd is not buying coins then the average buyer will not buy. At least the the original poster of this thread figured this out and is holding onto his coins rather than panic selling.

....
I trust reversion to the long term, ......

We will undershooth SMA200 at some point, now hovering around $95.

That's a bit of an amusing argument: the more obvious conclusion of price being above both 1d SMA200 and 100 is that we're stable/going up.

Our statements do not contradict each other.