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摩根士丹利:比特币挖矿很暴利,当前成本为3000到7000美元不等
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Topic: 摩根士丹利:比特币挖矿很暴利,当前成本为3000到7000美元不等 (Read 109 times)
diaonle
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摩根士丹利:比特币挖矿很暴利,当前成本为3000到7000美元不等
January 26, 2018, 08:08:51 AM
#1
随着比特币价格和自身市值的不断增长(目前已达到2500亿美元),未来“开采”新的比特币,对矿机的算力要求越来越高,设备也越来越昂贵,作为成本大头维持矿场运作的电费也愈来愈高。
摩根士丹利股票分析师Nicholas Ashworth在其1月10日研报中预计,2018年比特币乃至其他数字货币的挖矿用电需求将达到120-140万亿瓦时 (terawatt-hours),而全球电动车的能源消耗到2025年预计才不过125万亿瓦时,并据此给出了“比特币2018=电动车2025”的用电需求论断。
140万亿瓦时是个什么概念?
与绝对基数作对比,140万亿瓦时相当于全球总用电量的0.6%,这样的用电需求看似还未成气候,短期内也确实不会对电力板块的股票价格造成实质性影响;但用其他参照物做比较的话,这一数字已经非常惊人。
根据国际能源署2015年的数据,阿根廷全国一年的用电量也才不过125万亿瓦时,且相当于当年德国全国用电量的四分之一。
p1
来源:摩根士丹利
在与其他核心新兴产业进行横向对比时,结论则更为惊人。众所周知,电动车/新造车概念是2017年炙手可热的新兴概念;大摩此前预计电动车在欧洲的率先普及使用,将在2018年带来1-2万亿瓦时的电力需求,到2025年达到25万亿瓦时,而全球电动车用电需求则将达到125万亿瓦时。
p2
来源:摩根士丹利
也就是说,电动车行业的电力需求要到2025年,才堪堪达到今年数字货币“挖矿”的需求水平!据此Ashworth给出了“比特币2018=电动车2025”的用电需求论断,认为2018年的产业热点话题将让位给比特币和其他数字货币的“挖矿需求”。
Ashworth指出,比特币和其他加密货币价格的进一步飙涨,可能会加速对采矿硬件的需求以及用电量的持续攀升,直到矿工通过增加全球算力稀释每个矿工的人均收入,最终在竞争中消化彼此的超额利润。不过反之亦然,研报中提醒比特币价格的走低,也可能导致采矿算力分配的下降和用电量的萎缩。
产生一枚比特币的成本到底是多少?大摩模型:3000到7000美元不等,看在那里“挖”了!
根据在美国和中国挖矿环境(电力成本、硬件开支等等)不同,Ashworth在报告中建立了两套模型,分别计算产生一枚比特币的成本(数据更新截止1月8日),结论是在3000到7000美元不等,中国场景接近区间下沿,美国场景接近区间上沿。
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