Those who deny that BTC will rise to seven figures: clearly explain yourselves

[Kupsi]

Seven figures, seriously?  You're talking about one bitcoin being worth $1,000,000, really?  Not even if bitcoin takes over the entire world economy will it be worth that much, see Turr Demeester's talk on the potential value of one bitcoin. 

In case you don't want to watch the whole video, he crunches the numbers and calculates that each bitcoin will be worth $500,000 if it takes over the world economy.  I would be seriously surprised if it does that within my lifetime, but that's likely the ceiling on the price.  At least in nominal value, anyway.  If it does this, but takes 50 - 100 years to do so, it may be worth that much, but not in today's dollars.

$21T - $32T in tax haven accounts alone would bring the price to $1,000,000 - $1,500,000.

http://taxjustice.blogspot.ch/2012/08/interview-our-21-32-trillion-offshore.html

[halfawake]

Seven figures, seriously?  You're talking about one bitcoin being worth $1,000,000, really?  Not even if bitcoin takes over the entire world economy will it be worth that much, see Turr Demeester's talk on the potential value of one bitcoin. 

In case you don't want to watch the whole video, he crunches the numbers and calculates that each bitcoin will be worth $500,000 if it takes over the world economy.  I would be seriously surprised if it does that within my lifetime, but that's likely the ceiling on the price.  At least in nominal value, anyway.  If it does this, but takes 50 - 100 years to do so, it may be worth that much, but not in today's dollars.

$21T - $32T in tax haven accounts alone would bring the price to $1,000,000 - $1,500,000.

http://taxjustice.blogspot.ch/2012/08/interview-our-21-32-trillion-offshore.html

A lot of that tax haven stuff is business money, which really isn't likely to come into bitcoin.  The money of the millionaires / billionaires - well, they may invest some in bitcoin, but I'd be seriously surprised if they collectively put all $21 - $31 trillion in tax haven accounts into Bitcoin. 

[Kupsi]

Seven figures, seriously?  You're talking about one bitcoin being worth $1,000,000, really?  Not even if bitcoin takes over the entire world economy will it be worth that much, see Turr Demeester's talk on the potential value of one bitcoin. 

In case you don't want to watch the whole video, he crunches the numbers and calculates that each bitcoin will be worth $500,000 if it takes over the world economy.  I would be seriously surprised if it does that within my lifetime, but that's likely the ceiling on the price.  At least in nominal value, anyway.  If it does this, but takes 50 - 100 years to do so, it may be worth that much, but not in today's dollars.

$21T - $32T in tax haven accounts alone would bring the price to $1,000,000 - $1,500,000.

http://taxjustice.blogspot.ch/2012/08/interview-our-21-32-trillion-offshore.html

A lot of that tax haven stuff is business money, which really isn't likely to come into bitcoin.  The money of the millionaires / billionaires - well, they may invest some in bitcoin, but I'd be seriously surprised if they collectively put all $21 - $31 trillion in tax haven accounts into Bitcoin. 

You said: Not even if bitcoin takes over the entire world economy will it be worth that much...

[frankenmint]

I've brought this up in other threads before but I belive that it will be an upward trend of bubbles and that bitcoin cannot see that price until like 100 years after its done being mined - like year 2240 when the availability of btc is extremely low.  sure you could buy it up at like 100 today and sell it for 1000  in this lifetime but I can't believe it to get into berkshire hathway prices unless huge companies or conglomerates or hedge funds all get into bitcoin.

In my opinion a whole rap album colaboration by eminem and tech n9ne with backup features from Ludacris kendrick lamar and royce da 5'9 where they all need to come up with the coolest songs on why bitcoin 'takes over' wouldn't make bitcoin price jump to 10k a coin....if it did then the winklevoss twins wouldve paid for it to happen by now with their hundred thousand bitcoin havin asses.

[b!z]

The world economy will not magically shift to using Bitcoin. There is no reason for that to happen.

[nobbynobbynoob]

A lot of that tax haven stuff is business money, which really isn't likely to come into bitcoin.

Certainly not with the current exchange infrastructure, indeed. How does one just magically convert $50 million into bitcoin, as in, right now?

The money of the millionaires / billionaires - well, they may invest some in bitcoin, but I'd be seriously surprised if they collectively put all $21 - $31 trillion in tax haven accounts into Bitcoin. 

Of course all of it would never move into bitcoin, but it'd only take about 0,1% of that money on the bid side of the ledger to induce an explosive price increase, considering the inherent constraints on the ask side. Whether very high prices would be sustainable is another matter.

The prospect of bitcoin reaching six or seven digits (even adjusted for inflation) makes it a very exciting investment prospect, with obvious due respect to the prospect of value falling to zero.

[monkeybars]

Seven figures, seriously?  You're talking about one bitcoin being worth $1,000,000, really?  Not even if bitcoin takes over the entire world economy will it be worth that much, see Turr Demeester's talk on the potential value of one bitcoin. 

In case you don't want to watch the whole video, he crunches the numbers and calculates that each bitcoin will be worth $500,000 if it takes over the world economy.  I would be seriously surprised if it does that within my lifetime, but that's likely the ceiling on the price.  At least in nominal value, anyway.  If it does this, but takes 50 - 100 years to do so, it may be worth that much, but not in today's dollars.

Incorrect.

Demester does not claim $500,000 "if it takes over the world economy," but if it becomes the world's reserve currency. Reserve currency is the fiat that countries keep in RESERVE, i.e. out of circulation. If you count all the fiat currency in circulation, including exotic derivative assets, the world economy is measured in the quadrillions.

However, world gross product is only in the tens to low 100s of trillions. That, I believe, is the market that Bitcoin will take a huge bite of. If it becomes the world's currency of choice, say 90% of that market, a Bitcoin will buy what a few million 2013 dollars can buy. The exchange rate will be much higher, since it will reflect all those toxic assets as well. (I.e. fiat would hyperinflate.)

[crumbs]

Seven figures, seriously?  You're talking about one bitcoin being worth $1,000,000, really?  Not even if bitcoin takes over the entire world economy will it be worth that much, see Turr Demeester's talk on the potential value of one bitcoin. 

In case you don't want to watch the whole video, he crunches the numbers and calculates that each bitcoin will be worth $500,000 if it takes over the world economy.  I would be seriously surprised if it does that within my lifetime, but that's likely the ceiling on the price.  At least in nominal value, anyway.  If it does this, but takes 50 - 100 years to do so, it may be worth that much, but not in today's dollars.

Incorrect.

Demester does not claim $500,000 "if it takes over the world economy," but if it becomes the world's reserve currency. Reserve currency is the fiat that countries keep in RESERVE, i.e. out of circulation. If you count all the fiat currency in circulation, inlcuding exotic derivative assets, the world economy is measured in the quadrillions.

However, world gross product is only in the tens to low 100s of trillions. That, I believe, is the market that Bitcoin will take a huge bite of. If it becomes the world's currency of choice, say 90% of that market, a Bitcoin will buy what a few million 2013 dollars can buy. The exchange rate will be much higher, since it will reflect all those toxic assets as well. (I.e. fiat would hyperinflate.)

I agree we're well on our way to world domination.  Now if i could just get people to stop laughing and pointing fingers whenever i want to pay in bitcoins...

[frankenmint]

Seven figures, seriously?  You're talking about one bitcoin being worth $1,000,000, really?  Not even if bitcoin takes over the entire world economy will it be worth that much, see Turr Demeester's talk on the potential value of one bitcoin. 

In case you don't want to watch the whole video, he crunches the numbers and calculates that each bitcoin will be worth $500,000 if it takes over the world economy.  I would be seriously surprised if it does that within my lifetime, but that's likely the ceiling on the price.  At least in nominal value, anyway.  If it does this, but takes 50 - 100 years to do so, it may be worth that much, but not in today's dollars.

Incorrect.

Demester does not claim $500,000 "if it takes over the world economy," but if it becomes the world's reserve currency. Reserve currency is the fiat that countries keep in RESERVE, i.e. out of circulation. If you count all the fiat currency in circulation, inlcuding exotic derivative assets, the world economy is measured in the quadrillions.

However, world gross product is only in the tens to low 100s of trillions. That, I believe, is the market that Bitcoin will take a huge bite of. If it becomes the world's currency of choice, say 90% of that market, a Bitcoin will buy what a few million 2013 dollars can buy. The exchange rate will be much higher, since it will reflect all those toxic assets as well. (I.e. fiat would hyperinflate.)

I agree we're well on our way to world domination.  Now if i could just get people to stop laughing and pointing fingers whenever i want to pay in bitcoins...

move to the bay area - people seem to be gung ho for it here lol

[halfawake]

Seven figures, seriously?  You're talking about one bitcoin being worth $1,000,000, really?  Not even if bitcoin takes over the entire world economy will it be worth that much, see Turr Demeester's talk on the potential value of one bitcoin. 

In case you don't want to watch the whole video, he crunches the numbers and calculates that each bitcoin will be worth $500,000 if it takes over the world economy.  I would be seriously surprised if it does that within my lifetime, but that's likely the ceiling on the price.  At least in nominal value, anyway.  If it does this, but takes 50 - 100 years to do so, it may be worth that much, but not in today's dollars.

Incorrect.

Demester does not claim $500,000 "if it takes over the world economy," but if it becomes the world's reserve currency. Reserve currency is the fiat that countries keep in RESERVE, i.e. out of circulation. If you count all the fiat currency in circulation, inlcuding exotic derivative assets, the world economy is measured in the quadrillions.

However, world gross product is only in the tens to low 100s of trillions. That, I believe, is the market that Bitcoin will take a huge bite of. If it becomes the world's currency of choice, say 90% of that market, a Bitcoin will buy what a few million 2013 dollars can buy. The exchange rate will be much higher, since it will reflect all those toxic assets as well. (I.e. fiat would hyperinflate.)

Thanks for clarifying, you're right, I misremembered what he had said.  I still stand by my point, however, that $500,000 is the realistic upper bound of the bitcoin currency.  Even that is unlikely, but it's a least possible.  The kind of appreciation you're talking about would require bitcoin literally replacing virtually all fiat currencies, which is highly unlikely.  

I'm pretty sure that there are already several countries in Europe who are realizing that the Euro currency was a really bad idea since it means they gave up all control over their own currency and can't inflate or deflate their currency if they want to try and get out of a bad recession.  I know I'm one of the few non-libertarians here, but realistically, governments really like having this ability, and the alternative is a lot more painful.  Just look at what Greece is going through these days if you don't believe me.

[monkeybars]

Thanks for clarifying, you're right, I misremembered what he had said.  I still stand by my point, however, that $500,000 is the realistic upper bound of the bitcoin currency.  Even that is unlikely, but it's a least possible.  The kind of appreciation you're talking about would require bitcoin literally replacing virtually all fiat currencies, which is highly unlikely.

I think it is highly likely that cryptocurrency (-ies) will replace "virtually all fiat currencies." It's better money, money that's so strong that it will beat crappy money. Math wins over random humans. I'm sure we both have plenty of evidence to support our opinion on this subject.

I'm pretty sure that there are already several countries in Europe who are realizing that the Euro currency was a really bad idea since it means they gave up all control over their own currency and can't inflate or deflate their currency if they want to try and get out of a bad recession.  I know I'm one of the few non-libertarians here, but realistically, governments really like having this ability, and the alternative is a lot more painful.  Just look at what Greece is going through these days if you don't believe me.

With sound money, the causes of recession become a lot clearer. Instead of cheap tricks and shortcuts (currency manipulation), governments must instead institute policy changes to attack the root of economic problems, rather than bandaid things over and over until there's no more basis (EU). The truth is, governments suck at managing currency, while markets are excellent at it. Taking money out of governments' hands will bypass the artificial boom-bust cycles that you seem so confused about, to be replaced with genuine market movements.

[halfawake]

Thanks for clarifying, you're right, I misremembered what he had said.  I still stand by my point, however, that $500,000 is the realistic upper bound of the bitcoin currency.  Even that is unlikely, but it's a least possible.  The kind of appreciation you're talking about would require bitcoin literally replacing virtually all fiat currencies, which is highly unlikely.

I think it is highly likely that cryptocurrency (-ies) will replace "virtually all fiat currencies." It's better money, money that's so strong that it will beat crappy money. Math wins over random humans. I'm sure we both have plenty of evidence to support our opinion on this subject.

You know, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this: I really hope that I'm wrong here and you're right.  We'll all become fabulously rich if that's the case.  (Unless there are people on this board who don't own any BTC, which would be odd.)  And yes, you're absolutely right that governments suck at managing their currencies.  Greenspan may have helped cause the housing boom with a bit of a mismanagement of his dollar policies.  And the Federal Reserve is probably better at this than the Central Bank in most country.

In any case, it's an exciting time because it's still really early in bitcoin's history.  I could end up being right about this, and you could end up being right about this.  There's really no way of knowing in advance.  I am actually a bitcoin bull despite what I said here, I just don't think it's going to go into the seven figures.

[monkeybars]

You know, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this: I really hope that I'm wrong here and you're right.  We'll all become fabulously rich if that's the case.  (Unless there are people on this board who don't own any BTC, which would be odd.)  And yes, you're absolutely right that governments suck at managing their currencies.  Greenspan may have helped cause the housing boom with a bit of a mismanagement of his dollar policies.  And the Federal Reserve is probably better at this than the Central Bank in most country.

In any case, it's an exciting time because it's still really early in bitcoin's history.  I could end up being right about this, and you could end up being right about this.  There's really no way of knowing in advance.  I am actually a bitcoin bull despite what I said here, I just don't think it's going to go into the seven figures.

There's no telling what will happen, because Bitcoin is an innovation. Innovations tend to be weak and exposed when young. Bitcoin is strong, but not invincible. There are very dark parties involved in finance -- remember, they're the guys that enable warfare. I hope the regulators drag their feet for as long as possible so Bitcoin can get the jump on world culture. The faster we obviate the broken, the better.

[crumbs]

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There's no telling what will happen, because Bitcoin is an innovation. Innovations tend to be weak and exposed when young. Bitcoin is strong, but not invincible. There are very dark parties involved in finance -- remember, they're the guys that enable warfare. I hope the regulators drag their feet for as long as possible so Bitcoin can get the jump on world culture. The faster we obviate the broken, the better.

Financiers enable warfare?  In that case, pig farmers also enable warfare -- an army marches on its stomach.  Mothers enable warfare -- they raise baby soldiers.  Too many provocative but otherwise meaningless phrases coined on this forum.
As far as exposing a broken system?  All of the cool kids know it's broken.  Don't assume you're the only one who gets it just because others don't obsess about it.

[myself]

because OP did not sell its house, a kidney, a lung and go into drug/prostitution for bitcoins anyone who really believe that will likely do all that just to get bitcoins

[minarchist]

Near term I'm bearish. We're seeing a redistribution of the bubble money, virtually no one new is coming aboard. When the bubble fiat runs out, the price is going to collapse.

WTF?!?  Virtually no one new is getting into Bitcoin?

[XxionxX]

...
There's no telling what will happen, because Bitcoin is an innovation. Innovations tend to be weak and exposed when young. Bitcoin is strong, but not invincible. There are very dark parties involved in finance -- remember, they're the guys that enable warfare. I hope the regulators drag their feet for as long as possible so Bitcoin can get the jump on world culture. The faster we obviate the broken, the better.

Financiers enable warfare?  In that case, pig farmers also enable warfare -- an army marches on its stomach.  Mothers enable warfare -- they raise baby soldiers.  Too many provocative but otherwise meaningless phrases coined on this forum.
As far as exposing a broken system?  All of the cool kids know it's broken.  Don't assume you're the only one who gets it just because others don't obsess about it.

I lol'd 

[phoenix1]

I have noticed that the bears on this board have a habit of simply asserting doom and gloom, and generally refusing to back it up in detail.  I have decided to focus on the macro level issue of where Bitcoin will ultimately go, and place the burden squarely on you.  If you deny that Bitcoin will have a market capitalization in the trillions of USD, then pick one of the five poll options.

Can you give a solid argument that is worthy of response ? Do youhave detail ? You have 'decided to focus on the macro level issue' ... blah blah blah ...
Clearly explain yoursef before challening others if you don't mind

[manfred]

The Bitcoin price is simply what the majority thinks is the right price to pay at any given time. It can be literately anything.
If the majority disagree the price will move accordingly. It's got nothing to do with the 21 mil limit, its psychological limit as much as a fact. If Satochi wanted to create just 21 bitcoins it would work just fine only people would be sceptical and it would not catch on, but from a working principle it would be no problem at all.
If the price has anything to do with the limited number of existence then a ripple could never ever be worth more than a bitcoin because there is always fewer bitcoins, which is utter nonsense because a ripple can be worth more (Not saying it will be). 
It also would mean that a Euro has to be more expansive than a US Dollar because there is fewer Euros  (I am guessing there are fewer euros).
Principle the entire world economy could be run with bitcoins if one bitcoin is worth 2 usd, no problem at all. You have to remember there can be endless 0 behind the decimal place. A cup of coffee would be worth lets say for arguments sake 0.0⁴⁶18 bitcoins. From a operations point no worry's at all, from a practical point its ratter a pain.
Most people focus to much on the price and as such care about there one pocket and want to be filthy rich. Now, i don't know but i am reasonable certain Satochi did not create bitcoin to get filthy rich but rather as a serious honest hard working currency for a fair and just world to dethrone the Banksters.
Using it is of greater value than fantasising about some unrealistic price and yes bitcoins price can rise to great heights if the majority believe it is the right price to pay for one bitcoin.

[xxjs]

The Bitcoin price is simply what the majority thinks is the right price to pay at any given time. It can be literately anything.
If the majority disagree the price will move accordingly. It's got nothing to do with the 21 mil limit, its psychological limit as much as a fact. If Satochi wanted to create just 21 bitcoins it would work just fine only people would be sceptical and it would not catch on, but from a working principle it would be no problem at all.
If the price has anything to do with the limited number of existence then a ripple could never ever be worth more than a bitcoin because there is always fewer bitcoins, which is utter nonsense because a ripple can be worth more (Not saying it will be). 
It also would mean that a Euro has to be more expansive than a US Dollar because there is fewer Euros  (I am guessing there are fewer euros).
Principle the entire world economy could be run with bitcoins if one bitcoin is worth 2 usd, no problem at all. You have to remember there can be endless 0 behind the decimal place. A cup of coffee would be worth lets say for arguments sake 0.0⁴⁶18 bitcoins. From a operations point no worry's at all, from a practical point its ratter a pain.
Most people focus to much on the price and as such care about there one pocket and want to be filthy rich. Now, i don't know but i am reasonable certain Satochi did not create bitcoin to get filthy rich but rather as a serious honest hard working currency for a fair and just world to dethrone the Banksters.
Using it is of greater value than fantasising about some unrealistic price and yes bitcoins price can rise to great heights if the majority believe it is the right price to pay for one bitcoin.

You are onto something, but it is not what a majority thinks. Rather, look at the order book on any exchange, there are buy and sell orders form many different prices. One actor could for instance have a buy of 20 coins for 80, and a sell of 10 for 180 and another sell of 30 for 200. This is the values scale for one actor as expressed on the order book. Now add other possible amount and price pairs for that actor that he has not put on the order book. Then combine all factual and possible orders for the other actors. Then add the same for the other exchanges. Then add those for the localbitcoins.com traders. Then add all person to person valuations. Then add all valuations for people considering buying things and services. Still following? Now you have a combination of amounts and values for all actors. All valuations that cross, that is there is a seller with a lower price than a buyer for some amount, there will be trades. When all possible trades are done, you have the price as the last trade.

Time passes, valuations changes leads to more trades and you have a new price. On and on it goes.

You can not know the details of the combined value scales, not even for one actor, the actor himself might not know. Still, this is how the market works.