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目前尚不能断言流动性将紧缩
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Topic: 目前尚不能断言流动性将紧缩 (Read 76 times)
zengqingrong
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目前尚不能断言流动性将紧缩
January 27, 2018, 12:24:13 PM
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当代货币政策框架愈发荒谬可笑。中央银行家们拘泥于过时的经济理论,沉醉于精巧却脱离现实的模型中不能自拔,对技术进步、全球化与贫富分化这些导致低通胀的深层原因视而不见。出于对实体通胀目标的执着,央行们致力于维持低利率以推升金融资产价格,但事实上,所有金融资产价格都不计入央行的目标通胀中,但央行们对此不以为意。
作为央行直接操纵金融资产价格的始作俑者,美联储前主席伯南克在其任上施行了三轮量化宽松(QE),第一轮QE在危机时力挽狂澜,避免了金融系统崩溃;2010年末的第二轮,有所争议但确保了美国经济不被欧债危机再度拖入谷底;而2012年底推出的第三轮量化宽松,明确希望通过推升资产价格,使富人们的“涓滴效应”能够带动大众阶级的收入增长并推升经济。
伯南克做到了。各类金融资产价格持续上涨,资产估值无视地心引力屡创新高。美联储的成功引发了其他各国央行争相效仿,在极端宽松的全球货币环境下,各国经济终于开始逐步走出金融危机的泥潭。伯南克自是功成身退。其回忆录《行动的勇气》全球热卖,他也成为华尔街投行与对冲基金们争相邀请的对象,旋转门进的轻松,过得惬意。
毫无疑问,对于富人而言,量化宽松是救世主。但对普通大众而言,这是一场梦魇。勤勤恳恳的普通工薪族,辛苦数年的收入赶不上富人资产升值的零头。数十年来,美国工薪族的平均收入增速首次持续的跑输房租增速。尽管美国家庭财富净值占可支配收入的比例刚刚创下了历史新高,但富人与普通阶级对金融资产的配置能力的差别是不言而喻的。
当然,真实的资本主义世界数十年来就是如此运转的。正如以前流行的一句话:“小孩子才分对错,成年人只看利弊。”精英们大可继续若无其事的装傻,将闷声发大财的游戏延续下去。而在技术进步加速的情况下,富裕阶级也憧憬着人工智能取代劳动力的利润前景,期盼着硅谷黑科技带来永生不死的福音。然而随着英国退欧公投与特朗普的当选,底层人民选票的力量令精英们措手不及。而利率水平已经低无可低时,精英们终于开始思考“脱虚向实”的必要性。
各国央行们开始更多的讨论退出措施。即使今年美国通胀依然低于预期,但美联储还是实现了三次加息的计划。无独有偶,前不久中国发布了资管新规征求意见稿,并在美联储加息后跟随上调了金融市场利率。在最近两个月,英国央行、韩国央行、墨西哥央行也纷纷加息,甚至在最为鸽派的日本央行中,黑田总裁也开始提及过低利率可能带来的危害。
不过从2013年的削减恐慌开始,关于货币政策收紧引发金融资产价格暴跌的预测就不绝于耳,但悲观看空与阴谋论者屡屡沦为笑谈。去年此时,在税改与加息预期的推动下,担忧流动性紧缩再度成为分析师们一致预期,但今年全球市场高歌猛进,波动率更是创下数十年来的新低。
究其原因,美联储虽然开始加息,但利率水平仍然低于根据通胀与失业率对应的泰勒法则的均衡水平,更不用说欧洲与日本仍保持着极度宽松的货币政策。而随着经济改善下风险偏好提升,流动性实际上不减反增。从微观层面上,今年全球流动性可能是前所未有的宽裕:达芬奇的画作拍出4.5亿美元天价、香港楼市屡创新高、而作为大众对抗精英们纸币霸权的工具-比特币今年涨幅超过18倍。
从目前而言,尚不能断言流动性已紧缩。全球主要央行的资产负债表规模仍维持着稳定增长。但如果我们的预期正确,实体通胀压力在明年将逐渐开始显现。央行们将面临加速收紧货币政策防止经济过热与避免戳破金融资产价格的两难境地。而各国政府出于政治目标的考量对央行与日俱增的干预将会成为明年政策不确定性的主要来源。
从这个角度看,耶伦无疑是幸运的。尽管她是近40年来美联储任期最短的主席,但她交出了一份满意的答卷,将未来棘手的问题留给了接班人鲍威尔。而作为同样近四十年来首位没有正规经济学学历的美联储主席,鲍威尔被挑选的最大原因就是易于操控。如果出于中期选举的需要,特朗普政府继续推动一个鸽派的联储,也许市场对流动性紧缩预期又将落空。但若联储依然延续传统的政策框架,则在明年的某一时刻流动性的收紧将会真正开始发生。
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