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Author Topic: Isn't deflation a bad thing?  (Read 2051 times)
Galahad (OP)
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August 29, 2013, 09:36:13 AM
 #1

Someone told me recently that deflation is actually a bad thing and if anything is as bad as inflation as people just wait until tomorrow to buy things as they will always be cheaper. So how is Bitcoin immune to this problem when it is a deflationary currency? I probably have my concepts mixed up here. Here is some more information:

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/investing/afraid-of-deflation-here-s-what-to-do-1.aspx
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August 29, 2013, 09:37:53 AM
 #2


If $0.01 USD is enough to buy a Ferrari, then you will have trouble buying a stick of chewing gum for example.

Bitcoin on the other hand is divisible to a very low number, so you can buy the stick of chewing gum for 0.00000001 easily.
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August 29, 2013, 09:41:19 AM
 #3

Funny that computers and smart phones get cheaper and cheaper every year - but somehow the companies making them are not already out of business (i.e. if your purchasing decision was purely based upon getting the cheapest price you'd never by a computer or a smart phone as they will always be cheaper next year).

Another important aspect is that the vast majority of people are poor savers at best - they are more interested in showing off their latest iThingy than "hoarding" their earnings.

With CIYAM anyone can create 100% generated C++ web applications in literally minutes.

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August 29, 2013, 09:42:57 AM
 #4


If $0.01 USD is enough to buy a Ferrari, then you will have trouble buying a stick of chewing gum for example.

Bitcoin on the other hand is divisible to a very low number, so you can buy the stick of chewing gum for 0.00000001 easily.


But still, deflation is not good if it is permanent.


Let's assume you have 1 btc today. If you know for sure that the value of btc will increase, you will not spend it.
So basically, you won't go to the cinema today because you know that in 1 year you can buy 2 tickets for the cinema with the same amount of money....

Inflation is useful for consumers because they know that the value of money will decrease, so they better spend it now. Basically they will go to the restaurant, cinema, holidays, buy TV, computer and so on. With deflation they will just keep their money for themselves and stop investing.

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August 29, 2013, 09:44:32 AM
 #5

But still, deflation is not good if it is permanent.

Really - think about it - we have global warming, over population and are polluting the planet to death with our manufacturing (and all at an ever increasing rate since the industrial revolution).

I think if people only spent on what they really needed (such as food, clothing and housing) then we'd all be better off.

With CIYAM anyone can create 100% generated C++ web applications in literally minutes.

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August 29, 2013, 09:46:07 AM
 #6

Really - think about it - we have global warming, over population and are polluting the planet to death with our manufacturing.

I think if people only spent on what they really needed (such as food, clothing and housing) then we'd all be better off.


For a couple of years yes it might be good... But not as a permanent thing.
You might like or want to live in a cavern like they did xxxxx years ago, without electricity, without phones, computer and modern comfort. But I don't. No matter what I waste.

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August 29, 2013, 09:51:36 AM
 #7

You might like or want to live in a cavern like they did xxxxx years ago, without electricity, without phones, computer and modern comfort. But I don't. No matter what I waste.

I am not interested in living in a cavern and of course being a software engineer I will still be making the occasional purchase of computer hardware and using the internet.

Slowing down our production and consumption != going back to the stone age (but it could help to save many species on our planet including our own).

With CIYAM anyone can create 100% generated C++ web applications in literally minutes.

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August 29, 2013, 09:56:19 AM
 #8

I am not interested in living in a cavern and of course being a software engineer I will still be making the occasional purchase of computer hardware and using the internet.

Slowing down our production and consumption != going back to the stone age (but it could help to save many species on our planet including our own).



I don't think that inflation and saving the planet are antagonist.
You can recycle, save money, reduce gas emissions of greenhouses. You just need to consume better, not less.


Even wikipedia, which is objective, describes deflation as a bad thing (according to most economists).

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Galahad (OP)
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August 29, 2013, 09:58:29 AM
 #9

Surely you will have to buy at some point otherwise you won't have food, clothing computers etc. So people will buy but only what they need. That sounds good to me. I hate watching the news and every time the economy goes up (=environmental destruction) they bill that as a good thing. But does it mean poverty to have deflation in this way?
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August 29, 2013, 09:59:37 AM
 #10

You might like or want to live in a cavern like they did xxxxx years ago, without electricity, without phones, computer and modern comfort. But I don't. No matter what I waste.

I am not interested in living in a cavern and of course being a software engineer I will still be making the occasional purchase of computer hardware and using the internet.

Slowing down our production and consumption != going back to the stone age (but it could help to save many species on our planet including our own).


I do more think that it is our overpopulation that is the root problem - and not the production. The production is a "derivative" of over-population. A few generations with a global 1 child pr family is what we need to stop the overconsumption.

But inflation/deflation can both be good and evil. But the USA does no longer report the real inflation figures - they have setup their own "pseudo" values so things that impact inflation a lot - are just not measured any longer in the official figures. So real inflation/deflation is "hard" to spot.
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August 29, 2013, 10:00:10 AM
 #11

Even wikipedia, which is objective, describes deflation as a bad thing (according to most economists).

Economists are quite famous for a) never agreeing with each other and b) being unscientific.

You'd be better off ignoring anything an economist has to say.

With CIYAM anyone can create 100% generated C++ web applications in literally minutes.

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August 29, 2013, 10:03:54 AM
 #12

I do more think that it is our overpopulation that is the root problem - and not the production. The production is a "derivative" of over-population. A few generations with a global 1 child pr family is what we need to stop the overconsumption.

Certainly overpopulation is responsible for a huge proportion of the world's current problems and understand that in the most populated countries (China and India) the main reason for wanting more than two children is that the parents typically depend upon their children for *money* to look after them when they are old.

When you have *money* that gets worth more then there is less incentive to want more than 1 or 2 children (as any money spent on them would just be wasted if they died or decided not to support you later).

With CIYAM anyone can create 100% generated C++ web applications in literally minutes.

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August 29, 2013, 10:06:16 AM
 #13

Economists are quite famous for a) never agreeing with each other and b) being unscientific.

You'd be better off ignoring anything an economist has to say.



Still, you did not answer the other parts:
saving the environment is not antagonist with inflation. You can produce a lot, and do it in a nice and environment-friendly way.
On the other hand, you can stop producing, hyper-deflation, and ruin the environment by stopping maintaining Nuclear facilities and spreading dangerous chemical material in the world ....


+ you can't buy only food to live. You still need to have some hobbies...

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August 29, 2013, 10:19:57 AM
 #14

saving the environment is not antagonist with inflation. You can produce a lot, and do it in a nice and environment-friendly way.

You will help the environment *more* by producing *less* (although producing more environmentally friendly products is of course a better idea).

On the other hand, you can stop producing, hyper-deflation, and ruin the environment by stopping maintaining Nuclear facilities and spreading dangerous chemical material in the world ....

Firstly I never mentioned that we should *stop* producing and secondly keeping things in good repair is *exactly* what people that are good at saving already do (you should come and visit China - you'd be surprised how people are proud of having years old devices that still work well because they are constantly being repaired).

+ you can't buy only food to live. You still need to have some hobbies...

Please re-read my posts to see how silly that remark is.

If your major intent here is just to try and win an argument with misquoting, exaggeration and other tactics then I will just stop watching - if you really have an interest to discuss something then I will continue to post.

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August 29, 2013, 10:26:28 AM
 #15

I was in Chine 2 weeks ago, and I could hardly breathe after a couple of days (Shenyang) ...
I think that some period of deflation can be good to regulate, but should not be permanent. And if you have a computer, why would you think that African people should not have one? Seems selfish.




http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/02/why-is-deflation-bad/?_r=0

There are actually three different reasons to worry about deflation, two on the demand side and one on the supply side.

So first of all: when people expect falling prices, they become less willing to spend, and in particular less willing to borrow.  (...)


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August 29, 2013, 10:28:42 AM
 #16

And if you have a computer, why would you think that African people should not have one? Seems selfish.

Again - where exactly did I say people in Africa should not have a computer (or anywhere else for that matter)?

You are basically trolling now so I am unwatching the topic as it is pointless to continue.

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August 29, 2013, 10:37:04 AM
 #17

So basically if disagreeing with you make me trolling, I kindly agree that we should stop the discussion now. Bye.


You explicitly stated that you wish that there was a deflation, slowing down on production and consumption. Which obviously leads to preventing access to computers to African countries, even if you did not state it explicitly.




And you are editing your posts after I answer you, so you are misleading.... Not to mention that you only answer to part of what I am saying, and taking it out of context, lol.


I'm just saying that deflation is not a bad thing, and it is regulating the economic, but it should stay temporary. You can produce houses now that can produces more energy and electricity that they need. You can produce efficiently, to provide comfort to anyone, and you don't have to produce less if you want to reduce global warming.

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August 29, 2013, 11:23:04 AM
 #18

Deflation is bad when you need a society to spend spend spend so you, the government, can collect all that tax money to put to whatever use you want.  If deflation causes your citizens to spend less, you garner less tax money, and having less money to play with is bad; how would you pay for all those tanks, then?  So maybe you pay a guy here and a guy over there to propagandize the dangers of a deflationary currency and why a currency which is better spent right right now (unless you want to feel the effects of inflation) is the only way we can continue our way of life, for if we lived with a deflationary currency (such as the gold-backed dollar), businesses would collapse, chaos would ensue, rioters would flood the streets and the terrorists would win etc. etc. (except this never happened with the gold-backed dollar.)

Deflationary currencies mean more money to the individual; you're not only more likely to conserve your cash, but you're rewarded for conserving by having more money to play with as time goes on, so you can spend your cash on even bigger things, like starting a business of your own.  There's more incentive to properly manage your funds and spend only when it's wise to do so.  The idea that people would rather starve than spend their deflationary money is absurd; and in either case, whether the money is inflationary or deflationary, it is worthless if it is never spent, so the idea that the economy would fail is also absurd, for the very point of money is a middle-man between the point that you do work and the point where you buy something, and nobody wants to live in rags just to say they're a millionaire.

There's also the (massive) bonus of governments being unable to tax through inflation.  Just a thought.

Let's consider the hypothetical negative effect of deflation: the deflationary spiral.

Quote
A deflationary spiral is a situation where decreases in price lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and demand, which leads to further decreases in price.

First, we must assume that, in the example of gasoline, when gas is lowered from $3.50 to $0.35 over several years, the businesses which put the gas on the market are selling at a loss.  Unless we're also assuming that businesses are stupid, we can safely assume that, if gasoline is priced at $0.35, the businesses surrounding gasoline are still making hefty profits; because the currency is worth much more now than it was in the past, $0.35 would be a good amount of cash, more than enough to operate a business, and in the case of gasoline, we simply cannot get enough of the stuff, which means it's still being produced, brings me to the next point: supposedly, this causes lower wages and demand.  Now, since people have more money in their pocket, and people still really want to go places, they're still dropping tons of cash into purchasing gasoline.  This means the businesses surrounding gasoline are not only taking in all that cash, but the cash they do have is also deflating, resulting in yet more cash for the individual.  Although a person may be paid $4 an hour one year, but several years later may make $3 an hour, remember, the money is deflating, and thus, $3 of today could've been closer to $5 those years ago; in any case, if the business is improving, they have more opportunities to pay more people higher wages, or if the business isn't doing so well, the opposite will happen; whether the currency is inflationary or deflationary can't fix bad business.

So as we can see, a deflationary currency would cause lower prices, but would not cause lower production--it may even increase production, as the individual will have more money over time to spend on what they love--this would, in turn, possibly lead to even higher (comparatively) wages, and with higher wages, e.g. more money to spend, you could see more businesses sprouting, with a money that won't deteriorate over time, and the cycle continues.

We clearly see a conflict of interest here: with a deflationary currency, especially one largely out of the control of government hands, wealth and power flow toward the individual; with an inflationary currency, especially one in control of government hands, wealth and power flow toward the government (and this is especially clear, as I pointed out above, when government inflates as a hidden tax.)  At that point, it's all up to you; if you like big government, a tightly controlled inflationary currency is perfect, and if you prefer small/no government, a money like Bitcoin is perfect.

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August 29, 2013, 12:23:04 PM
 #19

Again - where exactly did I say people in Africa should not have a computer (or anywhere else for that matter)?

You are basically trolling now so I am unwatching the topic as it is pointless to continue.


Just ignore him if you want to. I agree, I don't see why deflation and spending less has anything to do with Africans not having computers.
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August 29, 2013, 12:30:25 PM
 #20

Quote
Isn't deflation a bad thing?
NO

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