[2018-01-28] The key to bitcoin’s next breakout may lie in Google search

[moriskarlov]

The first analyst to follow bitcoin sees a very accessible way to track its next big move.

DataTrek Research's co-Founder, Nick Colas, said recently that the key is looking into Google search and wallet growth.

"By looking at the number of people who search for the word 'bitcoin' on Google, which has roughly a 60 percent market share of search globally, we get a pretty good sense of where the interest is," he told CNBC's "Trading Nation" this week.

"The data does show exactly the same price trends that we saw for the past 90 days," he added.

And, just like the latest search trends, the cryptocurrency's price has been deep in the doldrums. It's been trading in the $10,000 to $12,000 range, off sharply from its record price near $20,000 it hit in December.

"Bitcoin searches have really trailed off. So, the interest levels definitely show you where bitcoin has these big breakouts and then pullbacks," said Colas.

He points to more evidence to support his theory to the bitcoin boom between last Thanksgiving and December 17 — when search traffic saw a significant pick-up as bitcoin prices surged to a record at $19,843.

"Search trends skyrocketed after Thanksgiving here in the U.S. in November of last year — more than doubling in the course of just a couple of weeks," added Colas. "That incremental search for the term 'bitcoin' actually led to an incremental number of wallets being formed, a method by which people hold bitcoin."

But days later, bitcoin prices crashed, and so did searches for it.

Despite bitcoin's troubles, Colas, who owns a quarter of a bitcoin, doesn't think it needs a life raft. He points out that it's still trading higher than before Thanksgiving, and the technology makes a lot of sense long-term.

"From this point on, we just have to look for the beginnings of good news that will re-accelerate wallet growth to make the thing go higher," Colas said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/27/the-key-to-bitcoins-next-breakout-may-lie-in-google-search.html

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[Zetminster]

I think the increase of search comes after the price rise, not the other way around.

[CryptoBry]

I think the increase of search comes after the price rise, not the other way around.

More likely. As the price of Bitcoin last year surged into the $20K level, the mainstream media had been trumpeting the rise and there were so many positive coverage back then and that in turn resulted into many people using the Google search to find out more about Bitcoin. I am sure that Bitcoin will remain to be on the top search keywords for this year and maybe even beyond.

[Lampaster]

I do not agree with these findings. Each user of crypto-currencies several times a day watching the price on their coins. It does not depend on prices of coins. New users also study the price of cryptocurrency but the high price deters them. There are many requests for ways of earning cryptocurrency. But only few of them will be successful.

[zby]

Ever since I have been here (that is beginning of 2011)  I have seen discussions about that correlation. Unfortunately it is useless as trading signal - because the searches are mostly trailing price not the other way around.

Not so long ago in a similar way 'scientists have discovered' the Willy Bot story.

[Hell-raiser]

I think the increase of search comes after the price rise, not the other way around.

But where does the article assert the opposite? I read it twice and I don't feel like that guy from Google says or implies what you try to refute. He just says something which can be loosely interpreted as sort of correlation between Bitcoin price moves and Bitcoin searches. But as we all know, correlation doesn't mean causation. If I'm missing something, which is quite possible, please tell me where he says that the change in the search rates comes before the price change and I will definitely stand corrected.

[J. Cooper]

It's all a domino effect. Once the we start going, and by that I mean going back up to previous all time highs maybe even 20k, people will start to look for ways to buy bitcoin since the price bounced from $9k to $20k and that's impressive. Of course FOMO will start to kick in and we will see an increase in Google searches as well as a price increase. The only thing we need is a catalyst that will get the price going and I've got a gut feeling that it will be LN.

[limek]

This is a serious mainstream adoption like we can see it happening around the world. It is only the beginning. Many people still don't know what is Bitcoin. Some would like to join, but some exchanges already "Full House" - No ENTRY.

[jhenfelipe]

"Search trends skyrocketed after Thanksgiving here in the U.S. in November of last year — more than doubling in the course of just a couple of weeks," added Colas. "That incremental search for the term 'bitcoin' actually led to an incremental number of wallets being formed, a method by which people hold bitcoin."

It shouldn't be focused on search trend only though, other means like word of mouth, advertisements on social networking sites and other sites also helped.

[Sir Cross]

I think the increase of search comes after the price rise, not the other way around.

More likely. As the price of Bitcoin last year surged into the $20K level, the mainstream media had been trumpeting the rise and there were so many positive coverage back then and that in turn resulted into many people using the Google search to find out more about Bitcoin. I am sure that Bitcoin will remain to be on the top search keywords for this year and maybe even beyond.

Maybe there's some sort of chicken and egg going on here, but either way, one has caused the other and has made bitcoin more popular. It's not a surprise that many have attempted to search about bitcoin on google or any other search engine because it's such an unfamiliar term to most - so when there was so much hype for it last 2017, people's curiosity sparked up. Whether this has caused the price to rise, I think it's good that many have been searching about bitcoin in google.

[greeklogos]

If wee look at Google trends Bitcoin we can see how the interest to this phenomenon is raising. I am agree with others who say that there are tans of people who check the price daily and even more often, but I thing the thing is a lot of people have heard about Bitcoin, but not all of them understood what is it. A year ago I aslso was searching on Google the explanation of this word, how it appeared and how to start to earn it.

[btcone111]

I think the increase of search comes after the price rise, not the other way around.

I think it could be both ways, logically speaking.
The higher the price, the more interest it draws which in turn pushes the price higher.