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区块链采用到底离我们有多远?
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Topic: 区块链采用到底离我们有多远? (Read 44 times)
kecitiaoc
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区块链采用到底离我们有多远?
January 29, 2018, 07:55:43 AM
#1
创新扩散模型理论最早是由Everett Rogers于1962年提出的,这一理论解释了一个主意、产品以及行为是如何通过人群中的不同组分从而在社会中扎根的。最初它的行进和成长是比较缓慢的,往往只有一些“创新者”和“早期采用者”,这些只占总人口数的16%;这些人是那些在机会到来之前看到机会的无畏个体,他们希望能参与到这场实验当中,但会承担巨大的风险,同时也可能回改变现状。
timg
在这个阶段之后,创新开始获得关注,并且按照指数开始向“早期众多跟进者”传播,这些人要比之前的那些渴望直接跳上船的人们更谨慎。随后就是“后期众多跟进者”——这些人是一群厌恶风险,并保持怀疑的人群,最后一批就是“滞后者”——他们是最不情愿进行改变的。就在此时此刻,创新扩散终于走完完成了一个完整的过程——这时,一个从新的标准或者产品已经在社会占据了主导地位。这一个创新扩散模型在整个历史进程中一直在发生着,从iPhone的兴起到奴隶制度的废除。
800px-Diffusion_of_ideas.svg
当今的区块链
那么我们应该把现在的区块链放到曲线的哪个位置上更合适呢?很多人相信,我们已经到了“早期大多数人”的指数增长阶段,同时我们也走到了区块链被全面引用的拐点。我希望能调和一下预期,同时往公式中引入一些细微的差别。对于我们验证区块链被采用的问题有两个非常重要的角度:投资和技术。
从投资的角度来看,区块链的确到了“早期更多跟进者”的水平。越来越多的资本,不管是来自机构的资本、还是来自家庭的资本都在今天大量的涌入到加密货币领域。单单2017年一年,整个加密货币市场总值就从180亿美元暴涨到5000亿美元。Coinbase是一家线上进行数字货币买卖的交易所,最近它在全世界范围的用户超过了1000万,同时其app也成为了美国Apple Store下载次数最多的app。
在线钱包以及文件追踪app比如说来自中国的imToken,以及来自韩国的CoinManager的用户数也都发生了指数级增长。在韩国,作为世界最大的加密货币交易市场之一,有超过三分之一的有工资的工人都是投资者。CBOE和CME是世界上两家最大的金融交易所,也在上个月迈出了史无前例的一步,开放了比特币期货交易。在全球已经有超过2000台比特币ATM机提供服务。这些迹象都非常清楚。
区块链的全面采用到底离我们有多远
然而,从技术角度来看,我们仍然是远远落后的。首先,在这个生态系统中,人才是极其稀缺的。区块链的开发者的人数很少,并且水平参差不齐;有很多加密货币项目的成长都由于难以找到合格的技术人员而受到限制。其次,还有很多残留的技术问题需要被搞定,其中最值得注意的一个问题就是扩容问题。区块链的网络并不能承受过大的交易容量从而与大型金融机构展开竞争。没有合适的扩容的解决方法,交易费用将会非常高,同时等待交易确认的时间也会变长。这是特别需要考虑的事,尤其是在2018年有很多区块链平台开始在以太坊的区块链上运行。
由于在区块链上指数增长的各种活动,突然涌入的大量区块链应用将很有可能对网络造成巨大的压力。如果没能合理处置,这就会导致在以太坊区块链上运行的程序需要更贵的交易费用,同时难以避免的,还有在确认交易过程的长时间等待。当然,现在也有一些令人期待的扩容项目,这些项目包括了雷电网络、Plasma、Zilliqa以及闪电网络。根据这些挑战,我认为从区块链的技术层面来看,它只是出于“早期采用者”的阶段,甚至可能只是在“创新”阶段。
不断变大的差距
你也许已经看到其中的问题了。在区块链的技术和投资方面存在着裂痕。如果我们持续增加投资规模,而没有在开发上提供更多的支持的话,我们也许会面临加密货币被严重高估的情况。是的,加密货币市场总值已经到了5000亿美元了,但是以太坊的创始人Vitalik Buterin最近在质疑,“这是我们应得的吗?”还有更多工作需要我们去做,从而进一步支持那些对区块链开发者们的培训。那些带头的机构比如说新加坡国立大学以及新加坡管理大学是在这方面的领军者。
当然,更多的资源应该被利用到改进扩容的方面。区块链技术需要追上区块链的投资。如果它们之间的裂缝太大的话,这一投机狂热很快就会被浇灭。
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Re: 区块链采用到底离我们有多远?
January 29, 2018, 08:03:49 AM
#2
是啊,还有这么多呢,现在都是概念阶段,主网上线的都没几个。任重而道远
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Re: 区块链采用到底离我们有多远?
January 29, 2018, 12:04:58 PM
Last edit: April 08, 2018, 07:19:11 AM by a16488093
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